Conformal prediction certifies that a classifier's prediction sets cover the truth, and that certificate is marginal. Many recognition benchmarks build distribution shift into evaluation, placing disjoint conditions in the training and test splits. Under that shift the certificate stays reassuring while per class coverage fails silently: on a real cross subject skeleton benchmark marginal coverage holds near ninety percent while the worst class is covered about seventy percent and ten of sixty classes fall below eighty percent. This class specific undercoverage stays hidden behind a single reassuring marginal number. Once the shift acts jointly on covariates and labels, the target class conditional score law is unidentified, so no label free method is at once per class valid and efficient uniformly over target laws consistent with the observed source joint distribution and target covariate marginal. The per class labels needed to recover every class threshold to a given tolerance grow as the inverse square of that tolerance and the logarithm of the class count, with matching bounds for classwise threshold procedures. Pseudo labels do not shortcut it: the best prediction powered estimator gains at most a small constant factor where coverage collapses. Across three real shifts and an image corruption benchmark, source label calibration recovers much of the gap while marginal coverage holds, and stops once it breaks.
Prediction sets should have high coverage to be useful, but some coverage notions are more practically relevant than others. In the classification setting, class-conditional coverage requires that the prediction set (i.e., the set of candidate labels for a new test point) must achieve the target accuracy level within each class, which may be challenging to satisfy when many classes are rare and have few calibration points. At the other extreme, marginal coverage requires only that coverage holds on average over the distribution of all classes, which can lead to low-probability labels being essentially ignored. To find a middle ground, recent work has introduced macro-coverage, defined as the unweighted average of class-conditional coverages. Macro-coverage offers a compromise between marginal coverage and class-conditional coverage that is particularly appropriate for long-tailed settings. In this work, we show that label-weighted conformal prediction can be used to produce prediction sets with a finite-sample macro-coverage guarantee, and more generally a guarantee on a family of generalized macro-coverage objectives that aggregate coverage at the level of arbitrary class groupings and take a weighted average. We further characterize the form of the smallest prediction sets satisfying a given generalized macro-coverage objective and propose a corresponding conformal score function. We validate our theoretical results on two large-scale image classification datasets.
We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification for a pretrained classification model deployed under unknown distribution shift. We propose Audited Conformal Prediction (ACP), a method that leverages a small labeled dataset from the target population to train an auxiliary audit model identifying inputs where the legacy model is likely to fail. By integrating the audit model's outputs into the conformal prediction framework, ACP produces prediction sets that guarantee marginal coverage while achieving substantially higher conditional coverage in practice than existing approaches. We develop and analyze two complementary integration strategies -- one targeting marginal coverage with improved conditional performance, the other providing explicit group-conditional coverage guarantees -- and establish theoretical guarantees for both. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets validate the method and illustrate trade-offs between prediction set size and conditional coverage.
Conformal prediction provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification under exchangeability. However, this assumption is violated by label shift, where the marginal distribution of labels changes while the conditional distribution of inputs given labels remains stable. Under such shifts, standard conformal procedures no longer maintain their intended coverage behavior. Existing approaches address this via importance weighting. They pair the reweighting with residual-based nonconformity scores that ignore predictive uncertainty. The resulting intervals have uniform width. Bayesian conformal methods produce adaptive intervals by leveraging predictive distributions. They evaluate conformity under the source predictive, which is misaligned with the target domain under label shift. We propose the \emph{Label-Shift-Adjusted Bayesian Score} (LSA score), a nonconformity score derived from a posterior predictive tilting identity. This identity shows that the target predictive is an importance-weighted transformation of the source predictive. We use it to derive a direct correction to the Bayesian score. We evaluate the method on molecular property prediction under controlled label shift. The LSA score consistently yields shorter intervals than residual-based and source-based Bayesian scores. Coverage in the target domain remains comparable. Under stronger shift, all methods incur some coverage loss due to pseudo-label-based density-ratio estimation. The LSA score is defined for any source predictive with a tractable log-density. We instantiate it with Bayesian Ridge Regression, where the correction admits a closed form.