Conformal Constraint Tightening for Chance-Constrained Motion Planning with Unknown Dynamics

We present a provably safe sampling-based motion planning algorithm for robotic systems affected by random disturbances of unknown distribution. We consider systems with linear or linearizable dynamics evolving in workspace with arbitrary-shaped obstacles subject to state and control constraints. Safety requirements are formulated as chance-constraints. Our approach leverages data from trajectories of the system to learn a Wasserstein ambiguity tube, i.e., a sequence of ambiguity sets, which contains the trajectory of the system's state distribution with high confidence. This ambiguity tube is then used in a probabilistically complete algorithm to grow a sampling-based motion planning tree that respects the constraints of the problem. We show that learning several lower-dimensional ambiguity tubes instead of a single high-dimensional one effectively reduces the conservatism and boosts scalability. Additionally, we design an efficient bandit-based validity checker that remarkably increases the empirical performance of our approach without sacrificing probabilistic completeness. Case studies show our algorithm finds valid plans in cluttered environments under strict safety thresholds, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.

Safe motion planning in dynamic environments requires reasoning about the uncertainty in predicted obstacle motion without sacrificing real-time performance. Existing conformal approaches conformalize a scalar score that aggregates per-obstacle prediction errors, losing spatial coherence and scaling poorly with scene density. We instead conformalize the entire predicted distance field at once. This functional conformal prediction (FCP) framework yields a distribution-free, field-level lower bound, from which safety follows uniformly: any trajectory satisfying the resulting constraint is certified safe, independent of how the control space is sampled. The key enabler is that the residual distance field is empirically low-rank and approximately time-invariant, which makes the bound decomposable in coefficient space. An envelope is fitted offline via functional PCA and a Gaussian-mixture inductive conformal procedure, then refined online by a lightweight adaptive functional conformal (AFCP) update on a low-dimensional vector. This keeps the per-step cost largely insensitive to obstacle count and retains long-run field coverage under distribution shift. We embed the envelope as a tightened safety constraint in a sampling-based model predictive controller, FCP-MPC. On the ETH--UCY pedestrian benchmarks and a dense 3D quadrotor task with up to 280 dynamic obstacles, FCP-MPC attains a favorable balance of safety, feasibility, and efficiency, reaching goals where pointwise and egocentric conformal baselines become too conservative or too expensive, while keeping per-step computation far below online uncertainty-reasoning baselines.

For autonomous space exploration, robotic agents need to perform motion planning in which environmental interactions may be unknown. Learning these interactions, such as terrain mechanics for wheeled robots, can introduce uncertainties that lead to risky motion plans and potentially hazardous operations or mission failures. Moreover, uncertainties induced by perception-based systems can exacerbate the problem of safe motion planning. In this letter, we address the problem of performing cost-optimal kinodynamic motion planning with risk awareness. We approach this in two steps. First, a sampling-based planner (AO-RRT) generates a dynamically feasible, risk-aware, and asymptotically cost-optimal trajectory. Second, we formulate motion planning as a nonlinear optimization problem and solve it using sequential convex programming (SCP), using the AO-RRT trajectory as an initial solution. By quantifying risk using conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), we demonstrate a reduction in risk by over $\sim$97% across trajectories in simulation and hardware experiments.