Model-based active flow control requires predictive models that are accurate, stable, and fast enough for real-time optimisation. In controlled wake flows, this is often achieved through Reduced-Order Models (ROMs) that first compress high-dimensional velocity snapshots into a latent space and then learn a time- stepping predictor for the dynamics in the latent space. Here, we study how the choice of the spatial encoder affects the predictability of the resulting latent coordinates for wake flows under control inputs. Using two actuated 2D wake configurations, a simplified truck wake and the fluidic pinball, we compare Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) against nonlinear Convolutional Autoencoders (CAEs) and two types of variational autoencoders for compression, and evaluate several temporal predictors based on Long Short-Term Memory networks. CAEs achieve higher compression efficiency and sharper short-term reconstructions, but they produce latent dynamics that are more irregular and with broadband spectral content. As a consequence, long-horizon forecasts degrade faster and show a higher probability of catastrophic divergence than POD-based models. POD yields smoother latent trajectories that are easier to learn and extrapolate, leading to more reliable predictions beyond the short- term regime. These results reveal a clear trade-off between compactness and forecast accuracy, and suggest that the stability of the latent dynamics prediction can outweigh maximal compression. This is particularly relevant for control strategies rooted in forecasts of the dynamics, such as model predictive control and reinforcement learning. The findings provide practical guidance for designing actuation-aware, hardware-feasible predictive ROMs for real-time flow control.
We present in this paper a framework for the identification of control-affine reduced-order models (ROMs). The proposed method utilizes autoencoders (AEs) to transform the high-dimensional states, and potentially the high-dimensional inputs, into reduced latent ones suitable for control-affine state-space dynamics. This is achieved by simultaneous training of the AE and the state-space model. In addition, we extend the discrete ROM formulation to a sequence-based model, which processes state and input histories to improve prediction accuracy while preserving the control-affine structure. We motivate our framework by applying feedback linearization to the derived models, and we present guidelines for its efficient use. The proposed framework is assessed on two numerical examples and its performance is compared to a baseline model, where the AE identifies a latent space with linear state-space dynamics. The assessment involves evaluating the prediction accuracy of the ROM on test data and its effectiveness in controlling the system to a desired state or trajectory.
World models -- compressed latent representations of an environment that support action-conditioned prediction and planning -- are typically presented as a product of modern self-supervised learning. This paper argues that the functional anatomy of a world model was independently developed, deployed, and formally analyzed decades earlier in the model-order-reduction (MOR) and control literature, under different names and for a different purpose: the real-time operation of physical systems. We trace the anatomy across three communities. Low-dimensional models of turbulence built on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) supplied latent dynamics learned from data of a chaotic environment; eigenface methods in early computer vision supplied the encoder-decoder half, including a primitive runtime validity check; and measurement-based POD frameworks for facility thermal control assembled the complete loop -- POD coefficients as latent state, parametric dependence on actuator setpoints as action conditioning, modal reconstruction as decoding, and, critically, a priori analytical error bounds as a verification layer that certified when the model's predictions could be trusted in closed loop. We then examine what each tradition possesses that the other lacks: MOR contributes verification, physical grounding, and extreme data efficiency; learned world models contribute nonlinear representation, transferability, and horizon. We argue that the outstanding obstacle to deploying world models in systems that cannot fail -- power, thermal, process control -- is not predictive fidelity but verifiability, and we outline a research agenda for physics-grounded, verifiable world models that unifies the two lineages.
We propose an efficient retraining strategy for a parameterized Reduced Order Model (ROM) that attains accuracy comparable to full retraining while requiring only a fraction of the computational time and relying solely on sparse observations of the full system. The architecture employs an encode-process-decode structure: a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to perform dimensionality reduction, and a transformer network to evolve the latent states and model the dynamics. The ROM is parameterized by an external control variable, the Reynolds number in the Navier-Stokes setting, with the transformer exploiting attention mechanisms to capture both temporal dependencies and parameter effects. The probabilistic VAE enables stochastic sampling of trajectory ensembles, providing predictive means and uncertainty quantification through the first two moments. After initial training on a limited set of dynamical regimes, the model is adapted to out-of-sample parameter regions using only sparse data. Its probabilistic formulation naturally supports ensemble generation, which we employ within an ensemble Kalman filtering framework to assimilate data and reconstruct full-state trajectories from minimal observations. We further show that, for the dynamical system considered, the dominant source of error in out-of-sample forecasts stems from distortions of the latent manifold rather than changes in the latent dynamics. Consequently, retraining can be limited to the autoencoder, allowing for a lightweight, computationally efficient adaptation procedure with very sparse fine-tuning data.