Multi-Level Modeling of Large Language Model Inference Latency and Energy via Hybrid Analytical--Machine-Learning Predictors

We present EnergyLens, an end-to-end framework for energy-aware large language model (LLM) inference optimization. As LLMs scale, predicting and reducing their energy footprint has become critical for sustainability and datacenter operations, yet existing approaches either require production-level code and expensive profiling or fail to accurately capture multi-GPU energy behavior. As a result, practitioners lack tools for deciding which optimizations to prioritize and for selecting among existing deployment configurations when exhaustive profiling is impractical. EnergyLens addresses this gap with an intuitive einsum-based interface that captures LLM specifications including fusion, parallelism, and compute-communication overlap, combined with load-imbalance-aware MoE modeling and an empirically driven communication energy model for multi-GPU settings. We validate EnergyLens on Llama3 and Qwen3-MoE across tensor-parallel and expert-parallel configurations, achieving mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) between 9.25% and 13.19% for multi-GPU prefill and decode energy, and 12.97% across SM allocations for Megatron-style overlap. Our energy-driven exploration reveals up to 1.47x and 52.9x energy variation across configurations in prefill and decode efficiency and motivates distributed serving. We further show that compute-communication overlap is difficult to optimize with intuition alone, but EnergyLens correctly identifies Pareto-optimal overlap configurations.

The operational energy consumption of large language model (LLM) inference is becoming an increasingly important component of the environmental footprint of deployed AI systems. However, direct measurement of inference energy often requires hardware telemetry, power instrumentation, or infrastructure-specific monitoring, limiting its applicability in comparative studies, early-stage system design, and sustainability reporting. This report presents an analytically structured, empirically calibrated, GPU-level methodology for estimating LLM inference energy on NVIDIA H100-class accelerators without direct runtime measurement. The proposed estimator combines parameter-scaled transformer FLOP accounting, calibrated memory-traffic factors, and hardware-specific energy coefficients for FP16/BF16 tensor-core computation and high-bandwidth-memory movement. It explicitly separates prompt prefill from autoregressive decoding, enabling energy estimates for input tokens, output tokens, and complete inference requests. The methodology further decomposes total energy into compute, parameter-access, key-value-cache write, and attention-read components, allowing the scaling behavior with model size, context length, and generated-token count to be analyzed. The resulting estimates are not intended to replace physical power measurements; rather, they provide transparent, reproducible, and assumption-explicit approximations suitable for model comparison, green-coding analysis, and design-time evaluation of LLM inference workloads.

As large language models span dense, mixture-of-experts, and state-space architectures and are deployed on heterogeneous accelerators under increasingly diverse multimodal workloads, optimising inference energy has become as critical as optimizing latency and throughput. Existing approaches either treat latency as an energy proxy or rely on data-hungry black-box surrogates. Both fail under varying parallelism strategies: latency and energy optima diverge in over 20% of configurations we tested, and black-box surrogates require hundreds of profiling samples to generalize across model families and hardware. We present EnergyLens, which uses symbolic regression as a structure-discovery tool over profiling data to derive a single twelve-parameter closed-form energy model expressed in terms of system properties such as degree of parallelism, batch size, and sequence length. Unlike black-box surrogates, EnergyLens decouples tensor and pipeline parallelism contributions and separates prefill from decode energy, making its predictions physically interpretable and actionable. Fitted from as few as 50 profiling measurements, EnergyLens achieves 88.2% Top-1 configuration selection accuracy across many evaluation scenarios compared to 60.9% for the closest prior analytical baseline, matches the predictive accuracy of ensemble ML methods with 10x fewer profiling samples, and extrapolates reliably to unseen batch sizes and hardware platforms without structural modification, making it a practical, interpretable tool for energy-optimal LLM deployment.