Flow matching (FM) has become a popular action head paradigm for modern embodied models. However, as a conditional generative model, it does not explicitly expose its inherent uncertainty, producing faulty action chunks even when it misinterprets the scene or encounters out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Therefore, determining when an FM-generated action can be trusted is essential for safe deployment, yet existing uncertainty estimation methods on real-time control suffer from several issues: extra training budget, high computational overhead, and low generalization ability. In this work, we provide a geometric interpretation of FM uncertainty in the velocity field, showing that uncertainty manifests as deviation from an ideal affine-isotropic contraction field. Building on this observation, we introduce denoising acceleration (accel), a highly-generalizable and cost-free uncertainty proxy that measures the bending of the denoising trajectory from a single forward pass, without additional model evaluations, training, or resampling. We theoretically and empirically demonstrate that accel is a faithful proxy for FM uncertainty and further test its utility in online failure detection. Results show that accel identifies failing rollouts well before termination, matching or even outperforming costly resampling- and training-based baselines across settings under realistic deployment budget. Code and demos available at: https://github.com/rrrrrrzy/fm-geometry.
Vision-language-action models (VLAs) combine vision-language backbones with expressive generative action heads trained via flow matching on large-scale robotic datasets. Despite their strong empirical performance in robotic manipulation, VLAs lack mechanisms to quantify confidence in their predictions and to detect when their actions may be unreliable. This presents a critical limitation for real-world deployment in non-stationary environments, where models inevitably encounter scenarios outside their pretraining distribution and may fail without warning. To address this, we derive an efficient method for quantifying epistemic uncertainty in flow-matching models by leveraging velocity-field disagreement (VFD) across a small ensemble. We successfully use this uncertainty estimate for failure detection during deployment and active fine-tuning of flow-based VLAs. To this end, we propose SAVE, a framework for uncertainty-guided active multitask fine-tuning that reduces the number of costly expert demonstrations required to adapt VLAs to new tasks. Through extensive experiments on the LIBERO benchmark, we demonstrate that VFD yields better-calibrated uncertainty estimates predictive of downstream performance, that VFD achieves strong performance in detecting failures, and that uncertainty-guided data acquisition with SAVE requires at least 22% fewer samples than baselines. In summary, our work shows that quantifying epistemic uncertainty in flow-based VLAs improves both failure awareness and adaptation. Project website: tum-lsy.github.io/uq_vla/.
Flow matching has become a leading framework for generative modeling, but quantifying the uncertainty of its samples remains an open problem. Existing approaches retrain the model with auxiliary variance heads, maintain costly ensembles, or propagate approximate covariance through many integration steps, trading off training cost, inference cost, or accuracy. We show that none of these trade-offs is necessary. By extending Tweedie's formula from the denoising setting to the flow matching interpolant, we derive an exact, closed-form expression for the posterior covariance at every point along the generative trajectory. The result depends on a single quantity, namely the divergence of the learned velocity field, which can be computed post-hoc on any pre-trained flow matching model, requiring no retraining and no architectural modification. For one-step generators such as MeanFlow, the same formula yields the end-to-end generation uncertainty in a single forward pass, eliminating the multi-step variance propagation required by all prior methods. Experiments on MNIST confirm that the resulting per-pixel uncertainty maps are semantically meaningful, concentrating on digit boundaries where inter-sample variation is highest, and that the scalar uncertainty score tracks actual prediction error, all at roughly 104× less total compute than ensembling or Monte Carlo dropout.
Flow matching trains a neural network to regress the conditional velocity along a linear interpolant between noise and data, and the number of network evaluations~(NFE) sets the cost of sampling. The straight-line interpolant carries an implicit choice: the sample moves at constant speed throughout the trajectory. We relax this choice and introduce Velocity Scheduled Flow Matching~(VSFM), which replaces the conditional target x1−x0 with v(t)(x1−x0) for any nonnegative profile v:[0,1]→R≥0 satisfying ∫01vdt=1. We study six polynomial profiles drawn from motion planning. The first use of VSFM is at inference time: a pretrained linear flow-matching model can be sampled under any admissible profile by integrating its ODE on a non-uniform τ-schedule, with no retraining and no additional computation; on CIFAR-10 this lowers FID by up to 19.8%. Training from scratch under a braking profile gives a further reduction of 17.4% at 4~NFE. Both gains follow from the local truncation error of the Euler integrator on the induced grid.