Predicting Steel Fatigue Life from Micrographs Using Physics-Informed Deep Learning

Predicting fatigue failure in steel components experimentally is costly because it requires testing across multiple compositions and processing conditions. This has spurred research on data-driven prediction models. Studies using the NIMS MatNavi steel fatigue dataset often report high point-prediction accuracy but rely on aggregate error metrics, leaving uncertainty about the reliability of individual predictions and whether accuracy is consistent across the fatigue-strength spectrum. This paper is the first to apply conformal prediction to steel fatigue strength, comparing five interval-construction methods across 50 independent data splits and distinguishing marginal coverage from coverage within specific sub-regions of the predicted property. A gradient-boosting point model achieves an R^2 of 0.976 +/- 0.009 and a mean absolute error of 18.3 +/- 2.3 MPa. Split-conformal prediction provides valid marginal coverage (0.918) but drops to 0.755 in the highest-strength quartile, where design margins are most critical, a pattern also observed with a Gaussian process baseline. A cross-fitted, normalized conformal method restores near-uniform coverage across all quartiles (0.869-0.938) without a significant increase in interval width, by scaling the interval based on a cross-fitted estimate of local prediction difficulty rather than using a single global width. Diagnostic analysis traces the residual gap in the highest-strength quartile to elevated residual variance (2.7x the pooled Q1-Q3 level) rather than a systematic bias, situating the shortfall against a proven distribution-free limit on exact conditional coverage. Marginal coverage claims for ML-based fatigue-strength predictions can conceal systematic unreliability precisely where engineering decisions are most risky; therefore, conditional coverage should be routinely assessed alongside marginal coverage.

Extracting standardized metallurgical metrics from microscopy images remains challenging due to complex grain morphology and the data demands of supervised segmentation. To bridge foundational computer vision with practical metallurgical evaluation, we propose an automated pipeline for dense instance segmentation and grain size estimation that adapts Cellpose-SAM to microstructures and integrates its topology-aware gradient tracking with an ASTM E112 Jeffries planimetric module. We systematically benchmark this pipeline against a classical convolutional network (U-Net), an adaptive-prompting vision foundation model (MatSAM) and a contemporary vision-language model (Qwen2.5-VL-7B). Our evaluations reveal that while the out-of-the-box vision-language model struggles with the localized spatial reasoning required for dense microscopic counting and MatSAM suffers from over-segmentation despite its domain-specific prompt generation, our adapted pipeline successfully maintains topological separation. Furthermore, experiments across progressively reduced training splits demonstrate exceptional few-shot scalability; utilizing only two training samples, the proposed system predicts the ASTM grain size number (G) with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as low as 1.50%, while robustness testing across varying target grain counts empirically validates the ASTM 50-grain sampling minimum. These results highlight the efficacy of application-level foundation model integration for highly accurate, automated materials characterization. Our project repository is available at https://github.com/mueez-overflow/ASTM-Grain-Size-Estimator.

Machine Learning (ML) models for grain growth prediction are typically trained on idealized synthetic data, yet practical applications require generalization to conditions outside the training distribution. This study evaluated the Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) generalization capability of the trained model from our previous study across three test cases, including experimental microstructures, microstructures characterized by a bimodal grain size distribution, and abnormal grain growth. To further probe whether physics-informed architectural design could improve robustness under these different conditions, a boundary-masked attention mechanism was proposed specifically for grain growth, constraining attention to grain boundary pixels. Both the baseline and the proposed physics-informed attention model were evaluated without retraining or fine-tuning on the OOD data. Both models successfully generalized to all three test cases, yet the boundary-masked attention mechanism provided substantial improvements, with the most notable gains for microstructures characterized by a bimodal grain size distribution, where Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM) improved from \num{0.6221} to \num{0.7609} and mean grain size ($\overline{R}$) error decreased from \SI{8.75}{\percent} to \SI{3.57}{\percent}. The attention heatmap analysis revealed that the boundary-masked attention model learned to concentrate attention on large grain boundaries in a manner consistent with curvature-driven grain growth physics, emerging from training without being explicitly encoded into the architecture. These results indicate that models trained on synthetic data can generalize to diverse OOD conditions without retraining, and that physics-informed attention may improve accuracy when the boundary morphology matches the training domain.