Agentic Bayesian Optimization through Surrogate-Augmented Autoresearch
Authors: Paul Brunzema, Louis Tiao, Nhat Le, Kevin De Angeli, Yao Xuan, Djordje Gligorijevic
Organizations: Meta · RWTH Aachen University, Germany
Abstract
Bayesian optimization (BO) has become the standard tool for sample-efficient optimization and owes its efficiency to uncertainty-aware search driven by generic statistical priors. Richer domain priors can improve BO in principle, but encoding them through tailored kernels or problem structure is difficult and rarely done in practice. LLMs can help sidestep this difficulty by making informal priors from natural language, code, and documentation directly available to the optimizer. However, existing LLM-based BO methods either insert the LLM into a fixed role (surrogate, acquisition proxy, or configuration interface) or hand it broad control, sacrificing the systematic exploration that makes BO reliable. We introduce agentic Bayesian optimization: a paradigm in which an LLM agent is the central decision maker in the BO loop while a Bayesian backend provides the uncertainty-aware optimization substrate. The agent configures the problem, queries the backend, selects and commits evaluations, and can revise the optimization strategy during the run by tightening bounds, switching acquisition functions, proposing targeted evaluations, or even reframing the problem following new instructions or observed evidence. We instantiate this idea in Sara, a surrogate-augmented autoresearch agent, and lenz, a modular BoTorch-based backend that the agent can inspect and modify through a structured interface. Across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, Sara preserves the reliability of state-of-the-art BO without prior knowledge, outperforms LLM-based baselines, and uses natural-language priors to improve beyond standard BO. We further demonstrate the practical value of agentic BO in dynamic settings, where Sara reconfigures the full optimization problem on the fly as requirements change, a capability not previously available in standard BO.
Bayesian optimization (BO) relies on a surrogate model and an acquisition function, yet the most suitable choices vary across tasks and optimization stages. Automated Bayesian optimization (AutoBO) addresses this variability by adapting BO components online. However, existing AutoBO methods either adapt one component, leaving the other mismatched and creating a bottleneck, or jointly select surrogate--acquisition pairs under a shared criterion, overlooking their distinct roles: surrogate selection depends on predictive reliability, whereas acquisition adaptation should respond to campaign context.In this paper, we propose DASH, a Decoupled Adaptive Surrogate--Acquisition Harness for large-language- model (LLM)-enhanced AutoBO. DASH selects surrogates by predictive reliability, uncertainty calibration, and ranking consistency; its two-stage acquisition controller periodically reallocates quotas across acquisition functions, builds a BO shortlist accordingly, and delegates final selection to an LLM. DASH also incorporates an integrated harness, consisting of knowledge-guided warm start and structured memory, to ground optimization in domain knowledge and accumulated feedback. Across four chemical optimization tasks, DASH outperforms the best AutoBO baseline by 12.51% in trajectory-level Acceleration Factor and 5.00% in endpoint Enhancement Factor. Results remain strong across LLM backbones, and ablations verify the complementary contributions of all components. Full-table and behavioral contamination checks find no detectable evidence that direct benchmark memorization or source-cell leakage explains these gains.
The high cost and data scarcity in scientific exploration have motivated the use of large language models (LLMs) as knowledge-driven components in Bayesian optimization (BO). However, existing approaches typically embed LLMs directly into the sampling or surrogate modeling pipeline, without fully leveraging their significantly lower evaluation cost compared to real-world experiments. To address this limitation, we propose LLM-Accelerated Bayesian Optimization (LABO), a framework that combines LLM predictions with experimental observations within a single BO loop. LABO employs a gating criterion to dynamically balance the reliance on LLM predictions versus actual experiments. By leveraging inexpensive LLM evaluations to broadly explore the search space and reserving costly real experiments only for regions with high uncertainty, LABO achieves more sample-efficient optimization. We provide a theoretical analysis with a cumulative regret bound that formalizes this efficiency gain. Empirical results across diverse scientific tasks demonstrate that LABO consistently outperforms existing methods under identical experimental budgets. Our results suggest that LABO offers a practical and theoretically grounded approach for integrating LLMs into scientific discovery workflows.
LLMs excel at predictive tasks and complex reasoning tasks, but many high-value deployments rely on decisions under uncertainty, for example, which tool to call, which expert to consult, or how many resources to invest. While the usefulness and feasibility of Bayesian approaches remain unclear for LLM inference, this position paper argues that the control layer of an agentic AI system (that orchestrates LLMs and tools) is a clear case where Bayesian principles should shine. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for agentic systems that can help to maintain beliefs over task-relevant latent quantities, to update these beliefs from observed agentic and human-AI interactions, and to choose actions. Making LLMs themselves explicitly Bayesian belief-updating engines remains computationally intensive and conceptually nontrivial as a general modeling target. In contrast, this paper argues that coherent decision-making requires Bayesian principles at the orchestration level of the agentic system, not necessarily the LLM agent parameters. This paper articulates practical properties for Bayesian control that fit modern agentic AI systems and human-AI collaboration, and provides concrete examples and design patterns to illustrate how calibrated beliefs and utility-aware policies can improve agentic AI orchestration.
Theodore Papamarkou, Pierre Alquier, Matthias Bauer +27