Hierarchical Solomonoff Induction: An Unbounded Machine Learning Model

Whether large language models perform genuine algorithmic reasoning or mere pattern completion is hard to test, because most benchmarks lack a ground truth for correct inductive inference. We introduce F-ICL, an in-context-learning benchmark that supplies one exactly. Using the Turing-complete machine F, complement-symmetrised into sF to remove output-polarity bias, we exhaustively enumerate all 1.5 billion programs of length $L\le13$ and compute the Bayes-optimal posterior in closed form under a bounded universal (Levin--Solomonoff) prior; models are scored by how closely their served distributions approach it at matched evidence. Each task is paired with its bitwise complement, on which the optimum scores identically, so an original-twin gap isolates the model's inductive bias. Across 105 serving configurations spanning 37 open models (0.8B--675B) and frontier systems from four laboratories, models answer up to 92% of queries correctly, yet 45 of 46 models yield distributions farther from the optimum than a keystroke reference, and their behaviour is bracketed by low-order prefix statistics fitted only on visible evidence. That reference is itself an algorithmic mixture, induced by a print-only machine with no loops, so the panel's implied measure sits closer to a loop-free mixture than to the loop-bearing optimum, independently of the reference machine. Updating is also non-monotone, which no prior explains: a Bayes-rational solved set can only grow in this realisable, noiseless setting, yet added examples produce $6{,}545$ solved-to-unsolved transitions against $13{,}702$ gains. The gap is not predicted by accuracy (Spearman $ρ=-0.19$, $p=0.21$), does not close with scale or across frontier generations in the serving modes that expose distributions, and is widened by instruction and reasoning post-training. F-ICL is released as an open, reproducible benchmark and toolkit.

Accurate posterior prediction need not require accurate approximation of Bayesian updates. We prove that an unbounded gap between the update maps can coexist with vanishing predictive KL for every fixed finite $K\ge2$ in a stationary symmetric Gaussian HMM. Exact Bayesian mixing and an explicit deterministic radial filter act on the same $K-1$ belief coordinates. As $q\to0^+$, their separation in centered logits in the worst case grows at least linearly in the natural confidence scale $L_K(q)$, while their categorical $D_{\mathrm{KL}}(\mathrm{exact}\|\mathrm{radial})$ vanishes at the same explicit witness. Along stationary HMM trajectories, the expected terminal KL between filtered posteriors also converges to zero at $H(q)=\lceil-\log(q)/c\rceil+1$. Typical blocks without switches drive both filters into a common confidence cone, where softmax curvature suppresses their disagreement; a single Gaussian maximal event controls adaptive noise. A sweep with equally spaced Gaussians over $K\in\{2,4,8\}$ illustrates the opposing trends, and binary controls at long horizons compare saturating and nonsaturating recurrences. The result isolates two missing links between internal update gaps and predictive cost: the contribution of separating states to expected loss and decoder sensitivity. Thus even an unbounded internal update gap does not by itself certify predictive failure. The construction is fixed in $K$ and does not provide a universal criterion for when compression is harmless or characterize when internal gaps must incur task loss.

Generative models, from diffusion models to large language models, achieve remarkable performance but at a cost in training data orders of magnitude larger than what biological learners require. An alternative paradigm has emerged in which networks are trained to predict their \emph{own} latent representations of related views or masked regions, as in data2vec and JEPA -- an idea related to predictive-coding accounts of the cortex. Despite strong empirical results, the theoretical understanding of these methods remains limited. Central questions include: by how much does latent prediction actually improve data efficiency? Is there a benefit to stacking such methods into multi-scale hierarchies? We answer both using as data a tractable probabilistic context-free grammar that captures the compositional structure of natural language and images. Such a grammar generates strings of visible tokens by recursively applying production rules along a tree of hidden symbols of depth $L$. For such data, supervised or token-level SSL require a number of samples \emph{exponential} in $L$ to recover the latent tree; we prove that latent prediction achieves this with a number of samples \emph{constant} in $L$, up to logarithmic factors. We confirm this bound with (i) a hierarchical clustering algorithm, (ii) an end-to-end neural network whose predictor-clusterer modules predict their own latents at each level via gradient descent, and (iii) the first sample-complexity analysis of data2vec, which we show implicitly performs hierarchical latent prediction. This suggests that explicit stacking such as H-JEPA is largely redundant.