Out-of-distribution (OOD) recommendation is vulnerable to preference shifts induced by a latent environment. Existing methods can infer latent states from logged interactions, yet the statistical meaning of the latent environment and its effect on preference remain underdetermined. We formulate this task as conditionally identifiable risk-aware recommendation (CI-RR) and propose Conditionally Identifiable Latent-Environment Recommendation (CILER). CILER uses a user-conditioned exponential family to model the latent environment and a feature-indexed polynomial to specify how it changes preference. It predicts by marginalizing item probabilities over the inferred environment distribution. Under sufficient variation, correct specification, and decoder regularity, CILER identifies the environment-sensitive representation up to the stated equivalence class. We further bound excess deployment log-risk by environment-inference error. Controlled studies test the observable consequences of sufficient variation and model specification. Experiments on three datasets show that CILER improves all twelve OOD ranking metrics under feature, temporal, and geographical shifts within shared support.
Predictive models trained on observational data often fail to generalise to the distributions they encounter when deployed, especially when the training data is a product of the system being optimised. Recommender systems are a canonical example: they are trained on interaction logs confounded by the deployed policy, past user behaviour, and platform filtering. As a result, the training distribution differs substantially from the candidate distribution scored at serving time, a gap that makes offline metrics unreliable predictors of online performance. We address the distribution shift problem with a method motivated by causal representation learning (CRL). We propose an information-theoretic disentanglement criterion and prove that its optimum depends only on the causal components of the input. We then derive a tractable variational lower bound that makes the criterion optimisable from finite observational data alone. The scope of our method is narrower than that of much of the CRL literature, in that we target better generalisation under distribution shift, not full identification of all latent causal factors. This narrower target is what makes the method practical, requiring only the existing confounded logs, applying to any standard supervised model, and adding no inference-time cost. Our headline evaluation is an A/B test with millions of users on Spotify, applied to a production ranker for personalised playlist generation. A capacity-matched CRL variant performed on par offline but delivered substantial online gains in listener engagement. Complementary evidence on the public KuaiRand recommendation dataset and a synthetic benchmark with known causal structure shows the same pattern: offline parity with baseline, gains under distribution shift. Across all three settings, adding our causal disentanglement objective yields meaningfully better out-of-distribution generalisation.
Yorgos Felekis, Michael O'Riordan, Oriol Corcoll +1
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong potential for recommendation by leveraging their semantic understanding and contextual modeling capabilities. Recent studies further introduce reasoning mechanisms to improve user preference modeling. However, explicit natural-language reasoning incurs substantial inference overhead, whereas existing latent reasoning methods mainly focus on generating or verifying intermediate states, leaving their layer-wise preference roles and contributions insufficiently characterized. We propose HiLaR, a Hierarchical Latent Reasoning framework with layer-aware reinforcement optimization for LLM-based recommendation. HiLaR constructs temporal-guided hierarchical user preference representations, aligns them with multiple LLM latent reasoning states, and organizes the reasoning process from broad preferences to fine-grained current intents. To further optimize the reasoning trajectory, HiLaR combines final recommendation feedback with layer-aware process rewards derived from the marginal target-likelihood gain of each state. Experiments on four Amazon benchmark datasets show that HiLaR generally outperforms strong sequential, generative, and LLM-based recommendation baselines. Ablation and sensitivity analyses further verify the contribution of hierarchical representation learning, latent alignment, and process-level optimization. Our code is available in https://github.com/hupeiyu21/HiLaR.
Large language models (LLMs) can summarize heterogeneous user evidence in natural language, but current LLM recommenders often collapse enduring preferences, transient intent, and exposure-induced behavior into one profile. This makes recommendation vulnerable to feedback loops: repeated exposure is mistaken for preference, immediate clicks dominate delayed satisfaction, and fluent explanations need not reflect the ranking decision. We propose our method, a model-agnostic framework for long-horizon recommendation. Our method uses a frozen multimodal language model to convert item content and feedback into evidence-grounded semantic atoms, then maintains separate short-term, long-term, and exposure memories. Propensity-weighted updates reduce policy-induced exposure bias, while a conservative offline critic reranks candidates for delayed satisfaction under a behavior-support constraint. Explanations use only influential evidence atoms and are checked by counterfactual deletion. We provide an identification result and evaluate the framework in e-commerce-like, news-like, and short-video-like environments. Across ten seeds, our method improves discounted long-term value over the strongest alternative by 6.1%, 7.6%, and 6.7%, respectively. Twenty-seed paired ablations show significant value drops after removing propensity correction (0.739 +/- 0.191) or conservative support regularization (0.523 +/- 0.234). A frozen instruction language model also more than doubles semantic-atom NDCG over TF-IDF on a held-out paraphrase benchmark.