XEns-CKD: An Explainable Ensemble-Based Approach for Chronic Kidney Disease Stage Detection
Authors: Rehan Ahmad, Gousia Habib, Muhammad Shaban, Ishfaq Ahmad Malik
Organizations: SVKM’s, NMIMS, Mukesh Patel School of Technology Management and Engineering, Shirpur, Maharashtra, India. · *2FCAI Fellow University of Helsinki and ELLIS Institute Helsinki, Finland · COER University, Roorkee, India · 4Shoolini University Solan Himachal Pradesh, India
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a silent disease. Its progression may not significantly hamper a person's daily routine. Human kidney function can be classified as normal or as one of the five stages of CKD. Early detection of the CKD stage can help patients understand the functional status of their kidneys and follow medical advice to slow CKD progression. In this paper, we propose XEns-CKD, a novel ensemble vision transformer-based scheme for CKD stage classification using ultrasound images. Three ViTs were trained on a private ultrasound image dataset using different training parameters. The performance of each ViT was evaluated using macro sensitivity, macro specificity, macro precision, macro F1-score, macro Youden index, the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), and macro balanced accuracy. The ensemble model achieved an overall classification accuracy of 86.36%. This work also emphasizes identifying and interpreting kidney regions affected by CKD progression. Explainable artificial intelligence techniques, including LIME, LRP, Attention-Min, and Attention-Max, were used to improve model transparency and clinical trust. An attention map combining the Attention-Min and Attention-Max results effectively identified and interpreted kidney regions affected during CKD progression from one stage to another. The attention map also highlighted the effects of CKD progression in these regions. Compared with existing methods, the proposed method classified the five CKD stages and normal kidney status with a 4% improvement in accuracy.
Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), characterized by the gradual loss of kidney function, remains a significant public health challenge. Early detection is crucial for preventing severe complications and enhancing patient outcomes. In this study, Federated Learning (FL) with a VotingClassifier was used to predict CKD using a clinical dataset, where Random Forest, AdaBoost, and XGBoost were utilized to compare and identify the best-fitting model for the global server. Additionally, GridSearchCV was applied to optimize the models' performance on the client's side. To enhance model transparency and trustworthiness, explainable AI (XAI) techniques were incorporated to interpret the prediction mechanisms. The global model's average accuracy was 99%, highlighting the potential of interpretable FL models in supporting early CKD diagnosis and advancing data-driven healthcare solutions.
Md Zahid Hasan Ontor, Md Al Amin, Anik Dev Nath +1
Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) affects nearly 10% of the global population and often progresses to end-stage renal failure. Accurate prognosis prediction is vital for timely interventions and resource optimization. We present a transformer-based framework for predicting CKD progression using multi-modal electronic health records (EHR) from the Seoul National University Hospital OMOP Common Data Model. Our approach (\textbf{ProQ-BERT}) integrates demographic, clinical, and laboratory data, employing quantization-based tokenization for continuous lab values and attention mechanisms for interpretability. The model was pretrained with masked language modeling and fine-tuned for binary classification tasks predicting progression from stage 3a to stage 5 across varying follow-up and assessment periods. Evaluated on a cohort of 91,816 patients, our model consistently outperformed CEHR-BERT, achieving ROC-AUC up to 0.995 and PR-AUC up to 0.989 for short-term prediction. These results highlight the effectiveness of transformer architectures and temporal design choices in clinical prognosis modeling, offering a promising direction for personalized CKD care.
Early screening of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is critical for timely intervention, yet most machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) approaches require labeled data and model training, limiting their use in real-world screening settings. This study evaluates the effectiveness of large language models (LLMs) for CKD screening under zero-shot and few-shot in-context learning settings and compares them with traditional ML and DL methods. We propose a framework that uses clinically selected tabular features and structured prompt templates to enable LLM-based inference without task-specific training. LLM performance is evaluated across multiple prompt styles, feature configurations, and data settings, and compared with standard ML, DL, and tabular foundation model (TFM) baselines, and existing CKD screening tools. The results show that LLMs can achieve competitive performance using only a small number of examples, often matching or outperforming traditional approaches in low-data settings. However, their performance remains model-dependent and less stable as input complexity increases. In contrast, ML, DL, and TFM models show more consistent improvement with larger training data. Overall, the findings highlight a trade-off between data efficiency and stability, suggesting that LLMs may serve as a flexible complementary approach for CKD screening when labeled data are limited.