A Minimal κ--τ Logic for Risk-Sensitive Abduction

Abductive reasoning operates in two directions. The synthetic mode builds explanations from available hypotheses; the analytic mode, conversely, identifies the latent factors whose interaction accounts for a complex observed state. This paper develops the analytic mode as a non-greedy, risk-sensitive discipline of commitment, in which candidate factors coexist and interact, resolving into committed conclusions only when explicit governance conditions are met. The formal core is the $κ$-$τ$ apparatus: $κ$ encodes the epistemic interaction among hypotheses, and $τ$ sets a commitment threshold calibrated to the decision's stakes. The central contribution is the causal cluster, a structured object recording which latent factors participate in a decomposition, with what weights and interaction structure, together with a two-level architecture (intra-cluster $κ^*$, inter-cluster $κ^{**}$) that guards against causal misattribution. Demonstrated in epidemiological crisis decomposition and adversarial cyber threat analysis, the framework's contribution to human-AI reasoning is the legibility of suspended decomposition as a shared coordination object, providing structural resistance to premature convergence. In practice, the decision-maker is handed not a single imposed answer but the competing explanatory scenarios, weighted by plausibility and paired with the evidence that would resolve between them, so that sound action is possible even before the ambiguity is resolved.

We highlight a failure mode of large reasoning models on questions with insufficient information: models may recognize that a problem is under-specified, yet still continue reasoning and produce unsupported final answers instead of abstaining. We formalize this mismatch as the detection-to-abstention gap, where detected insufficiency fails to translate into final abstention. This gap is especially concerning in high-risk domains such as medical AI, where answers based on incomplete evidence can be more harmful than refusal. To close this gap, we propose Judge-Then-Solve (JTS), a trajectory-level reasoning-control framework that trains models to make an explicit answerability commitment before solution generation. Rather than treating abstention as a final-answer style, JTS casts it as a control decision: the model either proceeds to solve or terminates early based on its answerability judgment. We instantiate this policy through supervised warm-up and missing-premise reinforcement learning with consistency and length-shaping rewards. Experiments on dense and MoE reasoning models show that JTS substantially improves reliable abstention across datasets and pushes Abstention@Detection (A@D) to near-saturation, indicating that models not only detect missing information but also act on that detection. By terminating unanswerable trajectories immediately after the answerability judgment, JTS reduces unnecessary reasoning and improves inference efficiency when continued deliberation would amplify unsupported assumptions. We also observe that missing-premise training can alter reasoning behavior on difficult but answerable problems, reducing unproductive self-reflection. These results suggest that abstention under insufficient information is a key form of reasoning control for deploying reasoning models safely and efficiently.

Abduction is a central approach to explain missing entailments from a knowledge base by providing a hypothesis, that would, if added to the knowledge base, make the missing entailment become true. Abduction under repair semantics has recently been investigated in detail, where several desirable properties and optimality criteria were considered, such as signature-restrictions and minimality in size and of introduced conflicts. Naturally, hypotheses that satisfy more than one of these properties or combine a property with an optimality criterion would be even more desirable for applications. So far, such hypotheses have not been investigated in the literature. In the present paper, we consider the ABox abduction problem for hypotheses satisfying more than one property or additional optimality criteria, for EL_bot under brave and AR semantics. Our main observation is that often requiring additional properties for hypotheses does not lead to an increase of complexity.