When Your State Estimator Has Lost The Plot: Detecting Estimator Failures Via Spectral Analysis
Authors: Christian Lanegger, Helen Oleynikova, Roland Siegwart, Michael Pantic
Organizations: Autonomous Systems Lab, ETH Zurich, Switzerland · Exclaim Robotics, Zurich, Switzerland
Abstract
Reliable onboard state estimation is essential for safe robotic operation, yet unmodeled disturbances, such as sensor aliasing or out-of-distribution noise, still cause estimators to degrade or fail completely. While many methods aim to improve estimator robustness, only a few provide introspective mechanisms to assess estimate quality. Existing uncertainty measures, such as covariances, rely on idealized assumptions and tend to be overconfident, and more recent data-driven approaches are typically tied to their training data distributions. We propose a sensor-agnostic introspective method that assesses estimator health by analyzing the frequency-domain power distribution of recent velocity estimates. The method is evaluated using outdoor flight data from an aerial robot running visual-inertial, LiDAR-inertial, and radar-inertial odometry. The dataset includes multiple estimator failures, enabling analysis of several frequency-domain indicators, such as signal power, spectral bandwidth, and entropy. We observe consistent spectral power differences between healthy and degraded estimates, allowing detection of 51%-58% of labeled failures with 60%-84% precision across three fundamentally different state estimation frameworks. Our results show that even a simple frequency-domain analysis of a state estimator's output can serve as a lightweight introspective tool to complement existing robustness techniques in real-world robotic deployments, and opens promising avenues for future investigation.
Accurate visual state estimation has been a central topic in robotics with a wide range of applications in robot navigation, autonomous driving, and autonomous flight. Recent advances in robot perception have led to significant improvements in the accuracy and robustness of state estimation, yet a fundamental challenge remains in how to quantify and calibrate its precision, i.e., how confident we are in an estimate and whether failures can be detected. This issue is particularly pronounced in visual-inertial odometry (VIO), where the heteroscedastic and multimodal nature of the problem makes uncertainty quantification especially difficult. This paper introduces MUSE (Multimodal Uncertainty Quantification of State Estimation), a novel real-time learning-based framework that leverages the strong and efficient sequential modeling capacity of Mamba to estimate localization uncertainty from multiple asynchronous sensor streams. Experiments on both public and in-house datasets demonstrate that MUSE achieves superior reliability and robustness compared to existing uncertainty quantification methods, and ablation studies justify the benefits of its key design choices.
Sensor measurements are frequently corrupted by outliers and non-Gaussian noise. These imperfections in the sensor data can cause classical state estimators to generate biased and unreliable state and uncertainty estimates. Robust estimators reject or downweight outliers but do not perform measurement covariance estimation, whereas joint state and covariance estimators assume Gaussian residuals and fixed loss shape parameters. Integrating these two capabilities into a single framework is an opportunity to simultaneously estimate both state and covariance in the presence of outliers. This paper proposes a unified Block-Coordinate Descent framework that combines a norm-aware adaptive robust loss, an Iteratively Reweighted Least-Squares state update, and a Minimum Weighted Covariance Determinant covariance estimator, yielding a self-tuning joint state and covariance estimator. The framework is evaluated in a Monte-Carlo simulation and on real-world ultra-wideband localization experiments in cluttered non-line-of-sight environments. Results show that the proposed estimator consistently recovers the true inlier measurement covariance and matches or exceeds the state estimation accuracy of all baselines, without requiring any manual parameter tuning.
Alexandre Hadji-Thomas, Andrew Stirling, James R. Forbes
We compare three state-of-the-art proprioceptive state estimators for quadruped robots: MUSE [1], the Invariant Extended Kalman Filter (IEKF) [2], and the Invariant Smoother (IS) [3], on the CYN-1 sequence of the GrandTour Dataset [4]. Our goal is to give practitioners clear guidance on accuracy and computation time: we report long-term accuracy (Absolute Trajectory Error, ATE), short-term accuracy (translational and rotational Relative Pose Error, RPE), and per-update computation time on a fixed hardware/software stack. On this dataset, RPEs are broadly similar across methods, while IEKF and IS achieve a lower ATE than MUSE. Runtime results highlight the accuracy-latency trade-offs across the three approaches. In the discussion, we outline the evaluation choices used to ensure a fair comparison and analyze factors that influence short-horizon metrics. Overall, this study provides a concise snapshot of accuracy and cost, helping readers choose an estimator that fits their application constraints, with all evaluation code and documentation released open-source at https://github.com/iit-DLSLab/state_estimation_benchmark for full reproducibility.
Ylenia Nisticò, João Carlos Virgolino Soares, Joan Solà +1