Tool wear prediction is an important task in CNC machining, where accurate monitoring of tool condition supports product quality and process reliability. Machine learning methods have shown potential for this task, but their use in industrial environments is limited by the distributed nature of machining data and by restrictions on data sharing between machines, sites, or organizations. Federated learning offers a suitable framework for this setting by enabling collaborative model training without transferring raw operational data. However, it is open if federated learning can lead to accuracy gains in CNC tool wear prediction that justify the increased complexity of such a system. In this experimental study, real tool trajectories are distributed across simulated clients to represent a federated learning scenario. The federated models are compared against centralized references and local client baselines. Results show that federated learning achieves performance close to centralized learning and improves significantly over local client models. These findings indicate that federated learning can support collaborative tool wear prediction in distributed CNC manufacturing environments and the increased complexity is justified.
Federated prognostics enable clients (e.g., companies, factories, and production lines) to collaboratively develop a failure time prediction model while keeping each client's data local and confidential. However, traditional federated models often assume homogeneity in the degradation processes across clients, an assumption that may not hold in many industrial settings. To overcome this, this paper proposes a personalized federated prognostic model designed to accommodate clients with heterogeneous degradation processes, allowing them to build tailored prognostic models. The prognostic model iteratively facilitates the underlying pairwise collaborations between clients with similar degradation patterns, which enhances the performance of personalized federated learning. To estimate parameters jointly using decentralized datasets, we develop a federated parameter estimation algorithm based on proximal gradient descent. The proposed approach addresses the limitations of existing federated prognostic models by simultaneously achieving model personalization, preserving data privacy, and providing comprehensive failure time distributions. The superiority of the proposed model is validated through extensive simulation studies and a case study using the turbofan engine degradation dataset from the NASA repository.
Time-to-event modeling provides a systematic framework for estimating time-dependent failure risk, reliability, and remaining useful life (RUL) from longitudinal condition monitoring data. However, applying these models to distributed prognostics remains challenging because sensor trajectories and failure-time records are often stored across organizations or operational sites and cannot be centrally pooled due to privacy or proprietary constraints. Moreover, the classical Cox proportional hazards model relies on a nonseparable partial likelihood involving global risk sets, making direct optimization difficult under standard federated learning protocols. This paper presents a federated longitudinal-survival modeling framework for collaborative system failure prognostics. The proposed framework combines longitudinal sensor representation learning with a client-separable discrete-time hazard objective, enabling multiple clients to collaboratively train a prognostic model without sharing raw sensor measurements or individual failure records. Time-dependent representations extracted from multivariate sensor histories are used to estimate interval-specific failure hazards, reliability curves, and system RUL. Experiments on the four C-MAPSS turbofan engine degradation subsets under simulated decentralized settings demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently improves prognostic performance over isolated local training while maintaining performance comparable to centralized training across heterogeneous operating conditions and failure modes. These results demonstrate the potential of federated longitudinal-survival modeling for collaborative, data-aware condition monitoring and system failure prognostics.
Federated Learning often suffers under non-independently and identically distributed data, where a single global model may fail to represent the diversity of client distributions. Clustered Federated Learning mitigates this issue by training specialized models for groups of similar clients, but existing approaches often couple cluster assignment with the main training loop, increasing computational and communication costs. We propose a lightweight clustering approach based on Random Network Distillation. Each client trains a compact Random Network Distillation predictor on its local data and uses its prediction error as a novelty signal to estimate similarity with other clients. This enables the discovery of meaningful client groups before federated training, without sharing raw data or repeatedly evaluating the main model. Crucially, the resulting federations emerge from local novelty estimates at runtime, making the method suitable for autonomous large-scale distributed systems where neither the number of clusters nor the collaboration structure can be specified a priori. Overall, by decoupling clustering from learning, the method provides a task-agnostic and efficient mechanism for autonomous collaboration under non-independently and identically distributed data.