Uncertainty-Aware Probabilistic Constrained Clustering from Entangled Pairwise Supervision

The present study aims to investigate a cluster cleaning algorithm that is both computationally simple and capable of solving the PU classification when the SCAR condition is unsatisfied. A secondary objective of this study is to determine the robustness of the LassoJoint method to perturbations of the SCAR condition. In the first step of our algorithm, we obtain cleaning labels from 2-means clustering. Subsequently, we perform logistic regression on the cleaned data, assigning positive labels from the cleaning algorithm with additional true positive observations. The remaining observations are assigned the negative label. The proposed algorithm is evaluated by comparing 11 real data sets from machine learning repositories and a synthetic set. The findings obtained from this study demonstrate the efficacy of the clustering algorithm in scenarios where the SCAR condition is violated and further underscore the moderate robustness of the LassoJoint algorithm in this context.

Clustering is a central primitive in unsupervised learning, yet practice is dominated by heuristics whose outputs can be unstable and highly sensitive to representations, hyperparameters, and initialisation. Existing theoretical results are largely objective-specific and do not explain these behaviours at a unifying level. We formalise the common optimisation core underlying diverse clustering paradigms by defining the Universal Clustering Problem (UCP): the maximisation of a polynomial-time computable partition utility over a finite metric space. We prove the NP-hardness of UCP via two independent polynomial-time reductions from graph colouring and from exact cover by 3-sets (X3C). By mapping ten major paradigms -- including k-means, GMMs, DBSCAN, spectral clustering, and affinity propagation -- to the UCP framework, we demonstrate that each inherits this fundamental intractability. Our results provide a unified explanation for characteristic failure modes, such as local optima in alternating methods and greedy merge-order traps in hierarchical clustering. Finally, we show that clustering limitations reflect interacting computational and epistemic constraints, motivating a shift toward stability-aware objectives and interaction-driven formulations with explicit guarantees.

Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used frequentist framework to quantify uncertainty by constructing prediction sets with user-specified marginal coverage guarantees. In practice, CP is typically applied on top of probabilistic classifiers, which are able to express aleatoric but not epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we consider the question of how to optimally employ CP on top of a more expressive formalism, namely credal sets, which can express both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. More specifically, we propose probabilistic Bernoulli prediction sets (BPS) and derive a variant that achieves conditional coverage for valid credal sets while remaining minimal in expected size. We then address the more realistic scenario in which the validity of the credal sets is not guaranteed. Assuming access to calibration data with ground-truth distributions over labels, we apply conformal risk control to BPS and derive a PAC-style guarantee: with high probability over the data, the achieved conditional coverage is at least the desired level. We validate our theoretical findings empirically over various datasets.