Uncertainty Identifies Difficult Samples Across Methods: A Multi-Task Study on a Heterogeneous Skin Lesion Dataset

Skin cancer diagnosis from dermoscopic images remains challenging due to high intra-class variability, inter-class similarity, class imbalance, and the limited interpretability of deep learning models. This paper proposes an uncertainty-aware and explainable deep learning framework for multi-class skin lesion classification. The framework combines a vision transformer model (MaxViT-Tiny) with CNN-based models (ConvNeXt-Tiny and EfficientNetV2-B0) through deep ensemble learning. Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout estimates predictive uncertainty and identifies unreliable predictions, while Grad-CAM++, an explainable AI (XAI) technique, provides visual explanations by highlighting lesion regions that influence model decisions. Evaluated on the HAM10000 dataset, the framework achieves 96% accuracy and 99% ROC-AUC under uncertainty-aware filtering (entropy < 1.0, confidence >= 0.7), with macro-average precision, recall, and F1-score of 94%, 95%, and 95%, respectively, and 96% weighted-average scores across all three metrics. The results demonstrate accurate, interpretable, and uncertainty-aware skin lesion classification for trustworthy computer-aided diagnosis.

Accurate skin lesion segmentation is vital for dermoscopic Computer-Aided Diagnosis. However, visual ambiguity and morphological irregularity often defeat spatial modeling, necessitating multi-domain architectures. Existing paradigms frequently overlook the active use of prediction uncertainty, leading to deterministic frameworks that suffer from blind cross-domain fusion and overfit to label noise. To address these issues, we propose the Uncertainty-Guided Dual-Domain Network (UGDD-Net). UGDD-Net introduces a novel "Glance-and-Gaze" mechanism to transform uncertainty into an active guiding signal. Specifically, the Uncertainty-Guided Bi-directional Feature Fusion (UGBFF) module uses pixel-level uncertainty to modulate spatial-spectral interactions. The Uncertainty-Guided Graph Refinement (UGGR) module constructs a topology-aware graph to propagate reliable semantic consensus and refine uncertain nodes. Finally, the Uncertainty-Guided Margin-Adaptive Loss (UGML) enforces strict constraints on confident pixels while relaxing penalties on uncertain ones to improve statistical calibration. Extensive experiments on ISIC2017, ISIC2018, PH2, and HAM10000 datasets demonstrate that UGDD-Net achieves state-of-the-art performance, especially on "Hard Samples". Our uncertainty maps align with expert inter-observer variability, providing robust interpretability for human-machine collaborative diagnosis.

Clinical vision models are often deployed as frozen black boxes with no access to internals, retraining, or ground truth at inference time. We introduce SpatialUQ, a post-hoc uncertainty method using only output probabilities. It measures the Jensen-Shannon divergence between the global prediction and the mean of five fixed spatial crops in six deterministic forward passes. The premise is simple, trustworthy predictions are spatially consistent. On NIH ChestX-ray14 (DenseNet-121, $N{=}25{,}596$), our Multicrop Uncertainty Score (MUS) reaches $0.784$ failure-detection AUC versus $0.664$ for MC-Dropout ($p{<}10^{-6}$) at one-fifth the compute, with native calibration ($\text{SCE}{=}0.049$ vs.\ $0.127$ for $\ell_1$), the best-calibrated among methods above 0.78 AUC. A supervised fusion of MUS with entropy, confidence, and $\ell_1$ reaches $0.832$, outperforming a five-member ensemble ($0.813$). MUS scales with model quality, reaching $0.899$ with BiomedCLIP ($ρ= 0.846$), while this relationship remains meaningful in-distribution ($ρ= 0.523$) but breaks down under severe distribution shift (VinBigData, $ρ= 0.027$). MUS is well-suited to diffuse findings but is less dependable for small focal lesions such as nodules. Code and experimental materials are publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/kawsher11/SpatialUQ.