Organizations: School of Data, Mathematical, and Statistical Sciences University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA · College of Nursing University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA · School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence Arizona State University Tempe, AZ, USA
Falls among older adults represent a major public health challenge driven by complex, time-varying interactions across multiple risk domains. Effective fall risk factor identification requires learning from heterogeneous longitudinal data while accounting for sparse and delayed fall-related outcome events. However, existing approaches are largely static and fail to adaptively model evolving, individualized risk factors across modalities and time. We propose PAFIR, a Personalized and Adaptive Feature selection framework for fall risk Identification and pRevention, which formulates adaptive feature selection as a reinforcement learning problem over longitudinal multimodal health data. PAFIR jointly models structural dependencies among correlated assessment variables and temporal dynamics in wearable-derived physical activity data, and learns adaptive selection policies across repeated study visits using reward signals derived from sparse fall incidence outcomes. We apply PAFIR to data from the Physio fEedback Exercise pRogram (PEER) cluster-randomized trial. Experimental results demonstrate that PAFIR more effectively captures longitudinal and structural patterns of feature relevance than state-of-the-art baselines, and enables dynamic, subject-specific feature selection. By adapting selected features over time, PAFIR supports more timely and personalized fall prevention strategies.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Overview of the PAFIR framework. Heterogeneous longitudinal data from multiple modalities are integrated to construct a hierarchical state representation of the individual state. This state is iteratively updated across clinical visits and in response to sparsely observed events, i.e., fall incidence. A multi-agent reinforcement learning module then operates on the evolving state to perform adaptive feature selection at both group and individual levels. The resulting learned policies support personalized and community-level recommendations for fall risk identification and prevention.
Figure 2: Illustration of the multimodal longitudinal PEER dataset across visits (T1-T4), including (1) survey-based fall risk assessments, (2) high-frequency wearable time-series data capturing physical activity, and (3) instrument-based measurements such as body composition. Fall incidence , the primary outcome, is recorded as sparse, time-stamped events.
Figure 3: Top fall risk factors identified across four visits at the community level.
Figure 4: Population-level fall risk contributions across study visits relative to a fall event. Visits are aligned by their order before and after the fall, and the vertical dashed line indicates the fall event. Markers at the dashed line denote the fall-related update, whereas the remaining markers denote scheduled visit-level contributions.
Figure 5: Personalized Temporal Evolution of Feature Importance Before and After Fall for Subject 1017 . The vertical dashed line indicates the recorded fall event. Circles denote scheduled visit-level contributions, whereas squares denote contributions at the fall-related update.
Method
FRR ↑
FDR ↓
Selection Stability ↑
Correlation Recovery ↑
PAFIR (Ours)
0.874 ± 0.007
0.207 ± 0.009
0.990 ± 0.003
0.974 ± 0.014
TAR ( 2024 )
0.795 ± 0.009
0.209 ± 0.008
0.989 ± 0.001
0.973 ± 0.014
SAT ( 2022 )
0.731 ± 0.010
0.311 ± 0.011
0.985 ± 0.003
0.973 ± 0.013
TTG ( 2018 )
0.664 ± 0.009
0.379 ± 0.012
0.985 ± 0.004
0.972 ± 0.013
PCA ( 1993 )
0.624 ± 0.015
0.434 ± 0.012
0.978 ± 0.002
0.971 ± 0.016
Group LASSO ( 2006 )
0.573 ± 0.154
0.667 ± 0.061
0.879 ± 0.134
0.970 ± 0.005
Table 1: Performance results for fall risk factor selection on the PEER study.
Method
FRR ↑
FDR ↓
Selection Stability ↑
Correlation Recovery ↑
PAFIR (Full)
0.874 ± 0.007
0.207 ± 0.009
0.990 ± 0.003
0.974 ± 0.014
w/ Random Feature-Importance Prior
0.870 ± 0.015
0.211 ± 0.008
0.980 ± 0.011
0.970 ± 0.014
w/o Hierarchical Structure
0.768 ± 0.010
0.229 ± 0.009
0.769 ± 0.010
0.752 ± 0.008
w/o Three-Agent Comparison-Driven Mechanism
0.678 ± 0.005
0.327 ± 0.013
0.675 ± 0.007
0.765 ± 0.033
w/o Sparse-Aware Rewards
0.655 ± 0.011
0.325 ± 0.008
0.665 ± 0.007
0.701 ± 0.013
Table 2: Ablation Study for Fall Risk Factors Selection on the PEER Study.
Appendix figures & tables15 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Figure 6: Top 10 Fall Risk Factor Identification across 4 visits. (a) PEER Intervention, (b) Control.
Table 3: Initial feature- and group-level reference sets used for evaluation on the PEER study.
Group-Level Selection
Feature-Level Selection
Visit Pair
N
Jaccard ↑
Turnover ↓
Jaccard ↑
Turnover ↓
T1–T2
253
0.744±0.007
0.256±0.007
0.095±0.007
0.905±0.007
T2–T3
227
0.956±0.014
0.044±0.014
0.088±0.006
0.912±0.006
T3–T4
158
0.969±0.015
0.031±0.015
0.064±0.007
0.936±0.007
Overall
253
0.890±0.009
0.110±0.009
0.083±0.004
0.917±0.004
Appendix
Table 4: Longitudinal stability of PAFIR group- and feature-level selections among participants with no recorded falls. Results are reported as mean ± standard deviation over 20 random seeds.
Method
Feature-Level Selection
Group-Level Selection
Precision ↑
Recall ↑
F1 Score ↑
Precision ↑
Recall ↑
F1 Score ↑
PAFIR (Ours)
0.887 ± 0.008
0.874 ± 0.007
0.880 ± 0.007
0.781 ± 0.011
0.793 ± 0.009
0.787 ± 0.010
GraphGPS+HDSE ( 2024 )
0.891 ± 0.009
0.874 ± 0.008
0.882 ± 0.008
0.736 ± 0.009
0.744 ± 0.010
0.740 ± 0.009
TAR ( 2024 )
0.788 ± 0.010
0.795 ± 0.009
0.791 ± 0.010
0.767 ± 0.008
0.791 ± 0.008
0.779 ± 0.008
SAT ( 2022 )
0.723 ± 0.009
0.731 ± 0.010
0.727 ± 0.009
0.677 ± 0.013
0.689 ± 0.011
0.683 ± 0.012
PCA ( 2021 )
0.643 ± 0.013
0.624 ± 0.015
0.638 ± 0.014
0.573 ± 0.013
0.566 ± 0.012
0.569 ± 0.011
Appendix
Table 5: Feature- and group-level fall-risk factor selection results on the PEER study. Precision, recall, and F1 score are computed relative to the predefined feature- and group-level reference sets.
Measurement
Result
GPU
NVIDIA Quadro RTX 6000
GPU memory capacity
24 GB
CUDA version
13.0
Runtime per random seed
∼ 101 s
Runtime for 20 seeds
∼ 33.7 min
Peak allocated GPU memory
∼ 240 MB
Appendix
Table 6: Computational cost of PAFIR on the PEER study.
Time-Series Dataset
Dim
Prediction Length
Dataset Size
Frequency
Information
ETTh1, ETTh2
7
{96, 192, 336, 720}
(8545, 2881, 2881)
Hourly
Electricity
ETTm1, ETTm2
7
{96, 192, 336, 720}
(34465, 11521, 11521)
15min
Electricity
Traffic
862
{96, 192, 336, 720}
(12185, 1757, 3509)
Hourly
Transportation
Solar-Energy
137
{96, 192, 336, 720}
(36601, 5161, 10417)
Hourly
Energy
Weather
21
{96, 192, 336, 720}
(36792, 5271, 10540)
10min
Weather
Graph Dataset
Graphs Counts
Nodes Counts
Graph Classes
Node Classes
Labels
Appendix
Table 7: Detailed Dataset Description. Dim denotes the variate number of each dataset. Dataset Size denotes the total number of time points in (Train, Validation, Test), respectively. Prediction Length denotes the future time points to be predicted in each dataset. Frequency denotes the sampling interval of timepoints. Top Side : Time Series Public Datasets. Bottom Side : Graph Public Datasets.
Dataset
Method
Node Classification
Graph Classification
Precision
Recall
F1 Score
Precision
Recall
F1 Score
PROTEINS
PAFIR
0.921 ± 0.007
0.914 ± 0.007
0.918 ± 0.009
0.843 ± 0.006
0.822 ± 0.007
0.832 ± 0.006
GraphGPS+HDSE ( 2024 )
0.867 ± 0.055
0.785 ± 0.097
0.780 ± 0.180
0.830 ± 0.027
0.812 ± 0.055
0.821 ± 0.012
TAR 2024
0.916 ± 0.017
0.925 ± 0.017
0.916 ± 0.017
0.767 ± 0.006
0.766 ± 0.007
0.765 ± 0.006
SAT ( 2022 )
0.779 ± 0.104
0.785 ± 0.097
0.780 ± 0.037
0.769 ± 0.037
0.643 ± 0.039
0.701 ± 0.104
PCA 2021
0.781 ± 0.003
0.719 ± 0.003
0.738 ± 0.003
0.643 ± 0.001
0.648 ± 0.002
0.644 ± 0.001
Appendix
Table 8: Overall Performance Comparison on Hierarchical Graph Datasets. PAFIR outperforms existing methods on both node and graph classification tasks across PROTEINS, ENZYMES, and AIDS datasets, following the TAR ( Ying et al., 2024 ) setting.
Dataset
Seq.
PAFIR (Ours)
iTransformer ( 2023 )
RLinear ( 2023 )
PatchTST ( 2022 )
TimesNet ( 2022 )
SCINet ( 2022 )
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
Solar Energy
96
0.213
0.236
0.203
0.237
0.322
0.339
0.271
0.307
0.250
0.292
0.237
0.344
192
0.226
0.244
0.233
0.261
0.359
0.356
0.267
0.310
0.296
0.416
0.281
0.383
336
0.243
0.258
0.248
0.273
0.397
0.369
0.290
0.315
0.319
0.432
0.302
0.400
720
0.246
0.268
0.250
0.276
0.397
0.356
0.289
0.317
0.338
0.425
0.310
0.400
Traffic
96
0.412
0.272
0.417
0.276
0.649
0.398
0.462
0.304
0.593
0.321
0.804
0.509
Appendix
Table 9: Overall Performance for Time Series Forecasting. We compare extensive competitive methods following the setting of iTransformer ( Liu et al., 2023 ) . The input sequence length is set to 96 for all baselines.
Dataset
Model Variant
Node Classification
Graph Classification
Precision
Recall
F1 Score
Precision
Recall
F1 Score
PROTEINS
PAFIR (Full)
0.921±0.007
0.914±0.007
0.918±0.009
0.843±0.006
0.822±0.007
0.832±0.006
w/o Hierarchical Graph Encoding
0.678 ± 0.005
0.673 ± 0.013
0.675 ± 0.020
0.765 ± 0.033
0.757 ± 0.005
0.766 ± 0.003
ENZYMES
PAFIR (Full)
0.937±0.004
0.940±0.007
0.941±0.006
0.866±0.006
0.848±0.007
0.857±0.006
w/o Hierarchical Graph Encoding
0.926 ± 0.006
0.923 ± 0.005
0.927 ± 0.006
0.340 ± 0.009
0.344 ± 0.007
0.348 ± 0.001
AIDS
PAFIR (Full)
0.987±0.003
0.991±0.007
0.989±0.002
0.986±0.001
0.985±0.006
0.986±0.001
Appendix
Table 10: Ablation Experiment for Hierarchical Graph Encoding.
Figure 7: Ablation experiment on the graph domain. We report Precision under two tasks: node classification and graph classification.
Model Variant
Solar-Energy
Traffic
ETTh1
ETTh2
ETTm1
ETTm2
Weather
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
PAFIR (Full)
0.213
0.236
0.412
0.272
0.381
0.398
0.288
0.340
0.330
0.366
0.173
0.259
0.170
0.211
w/o Time Series Encoding
0.716
0.754
0.788
0.761
0.725
0.739
0.733
0.748
0.656
0.671
0.459
0.470
0.433
0.451
Appendix
Table 11: Ablation Experiment for Time Series Encoding. The input sequence length is fixed to 96 for all methods.
Figure 8: Ablation Experiment on Time Series Domain. We report MSE under Three Datasets.
Dataset
Model Variant
Node Classification
Graph Classification
Precision
Recall
F1 Score
Precision
Recall
F1 Score
PROTEINS
PAFIR (Full)
0.921±0.007
0.914±0.007
0.918±0.009
0.843±0.006
0.822±0.007
0.832±0.006
w/o Multi-Agent Policy
0.916 ± 0.003
0.913±0.002
0.917 ± 0.002
0.761 ± 0.010
0.760 ± 0.007
0.759 ± 0.007
ENZYMES
PAFIR (Full)
0.937±0.004
0.940±0.007
0.941±0.006
0.866±0.006
0.848±0.007
0.857±0.006
w/o Multi-Agent Policy
0.926 ± 0.003
0.932 ± 0.002
0.927 ± 0.003
0.339 ± 0.040
0.348 ± 0.002
0.306 ± 0.004
AIDS
PAFIR (Full)
0.987±0.003
0.991±0.007
0.989±0.002
0.986±0.001
0.985±0.006
0.986±0.001
Appendix
Table 12: Ablation Experiment for Multi-Agent Module in RL Framework.
Figure 9: Ablation experiment on the graph domain. We report Precision under two tasks: node classification and graph classification.
Figure 10: Experiment Result of Different Methods on Two Datasets.