Calibrating Criterion Revision in LLM Agents: Failure Modes and a Trace-Anchored Protocol

Language model agents often abandon correct work when a user challenges it, yet simply telling them to stand firm makes them ignore real mistakes. Once an agent reads a complaint, it tends to discount its own earlier checks in order to agree with the user. We introduce Thinking-in-Bets, a training-free method in which an agent writes a short private record of its main claims, the checks supporting them, and its confidence before reading user feedback. When challenged, the agent consults this Claim Checklist to keep verified work intact while investigating uncertain or newly challenged parts. We evaluate five Gemini models (3.5 Flash-Lite, 3.5 Flash, 3.6 Flash, 3.8 Flash, and 4.0 Argon) across eight benchmarks: SWE-Together, SWE-Interact, and DeepSWE for software engineering, Agents' Last Exam for professional reports, Humanity's Last Exam and SycEval for academic reasoning, Vals Finance for financial analysis, and Terminal-Bench for command-line tasks. Recording claims before criticism nearly eliminates false reversals in patch review and protects passing report drafts under mistaken pushback, whereas writing the same record after reading the complaint recovers very little of the gain. In multi-turn coding, pre-reply claim records substantially reduce unnecessary file edits after mistaken complaints, and gating the record so it is written only when the agent is uncertain lowers token overhead while fixing more real bugs than the baseline. Even in non-interactive tasks without user feedback, listing the key claims in a draft and re-checking the weakest one before submission improves both answer accuracy and confidence estimates across all tested models.

Agentic large language model (LLM) systems are commonly implemented as an LLM in a loop with Planning, Memory, Tools, and Control Flow. This application-focused view connects agentic LLM research with deployable systems and leaves open how such systems should be evaluated beyond end-to-end task success. Building on this view, we define agentic cognitive depth as a trajectory-level profile across five operational criteria. The profile contains context sensitivity ($C$), temporal continuity ($T$), multimodal coordination ($M$), adaptive interaction ($A$), and metacognitive monitoring ($Mc$). The first four criteria measure how well Control Flow, Memory, Tools, and Planning are used across a trajectory. The fifth measures whether the system monitors and regulates the full run. For each criterion, we give operational proxies and a perturbation procedure, then connect the profile to the agent's world model. We provide the structure needed to extend benchmarks such as GAIA, SWE-bench, WebArena, and TRIP-Bench with per-criterion diagnostics. Symbolic verifiers, structured memory, planner coupling, and tool constraints provide practical ways to build and test these capacities.

Outcome-only evaluation under-specifies whether an evaluated agent profile preserves the commitments required to solve a multi-turn task coherently. NeuroState-Bench is a human-calibrated benchmark that operationalizes commitment integrity through benchmark-defined side-query probes rather than inferred hidden activations. The released inventory contains 144 deterministic tasks and 306 benchmark-defined side-query probes spanning eight cognitively motivated failure families, paired clean and distractor variants, and three difficulty bands. The main 32-profile evaluation contains a fixed 16-profile local subset and a matched 16-profile hosted large-model subset evaluated through the same benchmark pipeline. Human calibration uses the final merged reporting scope: 104 sampled task units, 216 raw annotations, and 108 adjudicated task rows, with weighted kappa = 0.977 and ICC(2,1) = 0.977. Empirically, task success and commitment integrity diverge across this expanded grid: the success leader is not the integrity leader, 31 of 32 profiles change rank when integrity replaces task success, and integrity rankings are more stable under distractor perturbation. The primary confidence-free score HCCIS-CORE reaches 0.8469 AUC and 0.6992 PR-AUC for post-probe diagnostic discrimination of terminal task failure; the legacy full heuristic variant HCCIS-FULL reaches 0.7997 AUC and 0.6410 PR-AUC. Probe accuracy and state drift achieve slightly higher ROC-AUC, 0.8587, and better Brier/ECE, while HCCIS-CORE has substantially higher point-estimate PR-AUC and remains more closely tied to the benchmark's intended construct. The exploratory neural-augmented variant HCCIS+N is weaker overall, and a randomized subspace control approaches chance. NeuroState-Bench therefore contributes a calibrated evaluation axis for exposing commitment failures over a broader model grid than the original local-only subset.