Efficient Regression Models for Scan Statistics

Time-series anomaly detection trades off predictive accuracy, computational efficiency, and interpretability. We use a large language model not as the detector but as the author of one: an autonomous research loop in which the model repeatedly edits a single short NumPy program under a leakage-free objective, keeping the best-scoring detector it finds. The loop discovers two compact detectors, one for univariate and one for multivariate series, that describe short windows by their local spectral features and compare them with the training-region distribution through a covariance-aware distance. On the TSB-AD benchmark these detectors lead the field across metrics, ahead of the strongest classical, deep, and foundation-model baselines including Time-RCD, yet they train no network and use no GPU, and the multivariate detector is faster than every similarly performing baseline. LLM-driven program search is thus a practical route to accurate, efficient, and transparent detectors.

Hyperparameter tuning almost always means search: fit the model at every value on a grid, score each by cross-validation, and keep the winner. For spline regression that search is unnecessary. The optimal resolution can be solved for in closed form, to the accuracy an exhaustive search reaches, at a fraction of the compute. Three ingredients make this possible: classical approximation theory pins the squared bias to a known power of the resolution G, exactly the Kolmogorov n-width of the smoothness class; the basis dimension is an explicit polynomial in G; and leave-one-out error follows from a single fit via the PRESS identity. Balancing the two known curves gives the minimizer analytically. We extend this calculus to many coordinates by replacing ambient input dimension with interaction order, the number of active low-order components in an ANOVA decomposition, yielding a scaling law in which the optimal resolution and error are power functions of the effective density (sample size per active component), with input dimension absent from the exponent. The law becomes an algorithm. KORE (Kolmogorov-optimal Order-aware Resolution Estimation) fits two pilot resolutions, solves a leverage-calibrated 2x2 system for the bias and noise scales, and evaluates the closed-form plug-in resolution with a tiny leave-one-out certificate: about a dozen fits instead of a full grid sweep, with a consistency guarantee as the sample grows. Across additive and sparse pairwise targets up to 80 input dimensions, KORE matches exhaustive 3-fold cross-validation and the full classical ladder (GCV, Mallows' Cp, AIC, BIC) while fitting roughly 8x fewer models; on 36 real tabular datasets it ranks first among 21 methods in accuracy per unit of compute, ahead of tuned boosters and kernel machines. When complexity lives in low interaction order, solving for the resolution beats searching for it.

We propose SYRAN, an unsupervised anomaly detection method based on symbolic regression. Instead of encoding normal patterns in an opaque, high-dimensional model, our method learns an ensemble of human-readable equations that describe symbolic invariants: functions that are approximately constant on normal data. Deviations from these invariants yield anomaly scores, so that the detection logic is interpretable by construction, rather than via post-hoc explanation. Experimental results demonstrate that SYRAN is highly interpretable, providing equations that correspond to known scientific or medical relationships, and maintains strong anomaly detection performance comparable to that of state-of-the-art methods.