Predicting the scale limits of social mechanisms in agent societies

Collective intelligence refers to the ability of a group to achieve outcomes beyond what any individual member can accomplish alone. As large language model agents scale to populations of millions, a key question arises: Does collective intelligence emerge spontaneously from scale? We present the first empirical evaluation of this question in a large-scale autonomous agent society. Studying MoltBook, a platform hosting over two million agents, we introduce Superminds Test, a hierarchical framework that probes society-level intelligence using controlled Probing Agents across three tiers: joint reasoning, information synthesis, and basic interaction. Our experiments reveal a stark absence of collective intelligence. The society fails to outperform individual frontier models on complex reasoning tasks, rarely synthesizes distributed information, and often fails even trivial coordination tasks. Platform-wide analysis further shows that interactions remain shallow, with threads rarely extending beyond a single reply and most responses being generic or off-topic. These results suggest that collective intelligence does not emerge from scale alone. Instead, the dominant limitation of current agent societies is extremely sparse and shallow interaction, which prevents agents from exchanging information and building on each other's outputs.

Populations of large language model agents are increasingly used as experimental societies. Three doubts shadow every such result: whether the agents behave like the humans they stand in for, whether a finding survives changes to the apparatus that leave the rules untouched, and whether apparent social dynamics are interaction at all rather than the reproduction of experiments the models have read. This article introduces SILICA, an open instrument that tests all three. Five environments carry published human anchors, each paired with perturbations that re-render the same rules and with variants whose payoffs point away from the memorised result. Twelve open-weight models were run through it on a single consumer graphics card. Agreement with human data is confined to starting points: first-round public-goods contributions fall inside the equivalence margin for eight of eleven models, while no model matches end-state contributions or the human corridor of cooperation. Merely swapping the order in which two actions are listed costs one model 58 points of cooperation. Presenting responders with a fixed schedule of offers shows that only one model, the sole reasoning-trained one, places its acceptance threshold where the incentive requires; two move theirs part of the way, two move them the wrong way, and three never acquire one. Conventions form through a shared prior over the names rather than through negotiation, though negotiation reappears once that prior is disrupted. On the certification ladder defined here, current silicon societies support exploratory claims and no more.

The collective behaviour of large language model (LLM) societies is not the sum of their individual outputs. It yields statistically distinct, sometimes-unpredictable phenomena, for which the tools we use to study single agents may not scale. Due to recent incidents involving autonomous agentic systems, however, understanding these systems is paramount. For that we introduce a framework for measuring self-organisation in LLM social systems and apply it to three such systems: a Schelling grid, a social network (Moltbook), and a Twitter-like misinformation simulation ('Rogue'). All three exhibit statistically significant self-organisation. Moreover, their relaxation dynamics vary with the environmental information available to the agents, with open-ended systems (Moltbook, Rogue) exhibiting sharp, phase-transition-like dynamics. Further results show that population-level pathologies can emerge even when the LLMs are safety-tuned or monitored, being primarily driven by the coordinated activity of a population subset. We also show when self-organisation does not emerge under two additional scenarios (a commons dilemma, GovSim, and a LLM-as-a-judge deliberation scheme, ChatEval). We argue that measuring signatures of this kind offers a lightweight, agent-agnostic diagnostic layer for detecting coordinated collective behaviour in deployed multi-agent systems without relying on natural language or model versioning.