From General Agents to RCA Experts: A Self-Evolving Harness for Root Cause Analysis

Root cause analysis (RCA) poses a holistic test of LLM agentic capabilities, such as long-context understanding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use. However, existing datasets suffer from a fundamental gap: they label only the root cause, not the propagation path connecting it to the observed symptom, which largely simplifies the task to naive pattern matching. To support rigorous evaluation, we introduce PAVE, a step-wise labeling protocol that leverages known interventions from fault injection to reconstruct causal propagation paths. The mechanism is forward verification: reasoning from cause to effect rather than inferring backward from symptoms. Applying PAVE yields OpenRCA 2.0 (500 instances), the first cross-system RCA benchmark with step-wise causal annotations for LLM agents. Across 11 frontier LLMs, recovering the exact root-cause set succeeds in only 20.7% of cases on average. To locate where this difficulty lies, we relax the criterion and find what we call the ungrounded diagnosis: agents identify at least one correct root-cause service in 76.0% of cases, but ground that service in a verified causal propagation path to the observed symptom in only 61.5%. Outcome-only evaluation hides this failure mode; step-wise causal ground truth is the missing piece for trustworthy LLM-based RCA agents.

Large language models can write, patch, and search code, but oncall root cause analysis (RCA) demands something different: reasoning over noisy metrics, logs, traces, and source code, starting from ambiguous user-facing reports, often hours after the incident began. We introduce ORCA-bench, a benchmark that puts general-purpose coding agents in a production-fidelity oncall setting. ORCA-bench pairs 1,079 RCA tasks with six days of metrics, logs, and traces collected from an OpenTelemetry-instrumented microservice system under continuous simulated user load. Agents investigate this recorded history through real observability interfaces---Prometheus, Jaeger, and OpenSearch via Grafana---with full access to application source code. Tasks systematically vary report specificity, time-to-detection, and co-occurring fault scenarios. Ground-truth symptoms are curated and signed off by expert SREs, and our LLM-as-judge is independently re-scored by humans (Cohen's $κ_w = 0.91$). Across five frontier agents, the best RCA Accuracy is 25.3% on Medium-difficulty tasks (the realistic-input setting) and 10.0% on Hard---a gap that remains even with Claude Fable 5. The weakest model hallucinates an implausible root cause in 40% of incident reports, and removing source-code access reduces RCA accuracy and increases the hallucination rate for every evaluated model. These results come from a curated 50 GB / six-day testbed of standalone tasks on a system whose code and instrumentation are public. Since real production systems are orders of magnitude larger, more dynamic, and more idiosyncratic, the gap we report underscores the engineering work still needed before agents can be entrusted with production reliability. We release the public set at https://hub.harborframework.com/datasets/orca-bench/orca-bench.

LLM-based root cause analysis (RCA) agents have recently emerged as a promising paradigm for incident diagnosis in microservice AIOps. However, their reliability remains fragile: an error in early evidence collection, hypothesis formulation, or causal analysis can propagate through the reasoning trace and eventually corrupt the final diagnosis. In this paper, we present \textbf{STAR}, a \emph{Stage-attributed Triage and Repair} framework for repairing erroneous RCA traces. STAR explicitly decomposes an RCA workflow into four structured stages, namely \emph{Evidence Package} (EP), \emph{Hypothesis Set} (HS), \emph{Analysis Structure} (AS), and \emph{Decision Report} (DR), and treats agent failure as a stage-localizable reasoning bug rather than a monolithic end-to-end error. Built on top of LangGraph, STAR performs stage-wise auditing, budget-aware \emph{Fast/Slow Routing}, \emph{decisive stage localization via counterfactual candidate evaluation}, and stage-specific patch-and-replay repair. We evaluate STAR on a public large-scale benchmark and a real-world production dataset, using two RCA agent workflows and three foundation models. Experimental results show that STAR consistently improves both root cause localization and fault type classification over strong baselines. Moreover, STAR identifies the decisive faulty stage with high accuracy, repairs most initially incorrect traces within one or two replay rounds, and benefits substantially from both Fast/Slow Routing and counterfactual stage evaluation. These results suggest that explicitly modeling \emph{where} an RCA agent fails is an effective path toward reliable, debuggable, and self-repairing agentic RCA systems.