Prompt Sensitivity of Generative Agents: Evidence from an Epidemic Model

Platform policies are increasingly tested on artificial users, making agent fidelity important. Yet convincing fake profiles could also manipulate perceived public opinion before elections. Validation has concentrated on agreement with human behaviour and has paid little attention to whether an agent behaves in line with the profile it was given. The present study profiled eight Serbian participants through a questionnaire, a deep interview, and a written self-presentation, recorded their reactions to sixty-eight social media posts, and asked four language models to predict those reactions under five prompt conditions varying profile content and instruction style. Attitudinal content improved prediction over demographic backstories by a wide margin. Agents matched their stated profiles more closely than participants matched their own survey answers, and consistency proved unrelated to fidelity once profile information was present. Instructing models to respond intuitively and immediately rather than analytically gave the highest fidelity of any condition and cut the compression of individual differences from seven times the human level to three. The advantage held on posts about topics the questionnaire never raised, where that condition reached the highest fidelity of any setup and beat a crowd baseline by a wide margin, which suggests that agents prompted this way could serve as general-purpose simulated users rather than specialists on the topics they were profiled for. Results may bear implications for the development of language models, because intuition-based setups appear better suited to some tasks than reasoning-based ones.

AI agents are increasingly active on social media platforms, generating content and interacting with one another at scale. Yet the behavioral diversity of these agents remains poorly understood, and methods for characterizing distinct agent types and studying how they engage with shared topics are largely absent from current research. We apply the Persona Ecosystem Playground (PEP) to Moltbook, a social platform for AI agents, to generate and validate conversational personas from 41,300 posts using k-means clustering and retrieval-augmented generation. Cross-persona validation confirms that personas are semantically closer to their own source cluster than to others (t(61) = 17.85, p < .001, d = 2.20; own-cluster M = 0.71 vs. other-cluster M = 0.35). These personas are then deployed in a nine-turn structured discussion, and simulation messages were attributed to their source persona significantly above chance (binomial test, p < .001). The results indicate that persona-based ecosystem modeling can represent behavioral diversity in AI agent populations.

As generative AI (Gen AI) systems take on increasingly autonomous roles in economically and socially consequential interactions, understanding their propensity to cooperate -- and the signals that shape this propensity -- has become essential. We examine cooperative behavior in frontier Gen AI models using the iterated prisoner's dilemma, manipulating counterpart reputation (positive, unknown, negative), strategy (extortion vs. generosity), and non-verbal emotional signaling (facial expressions conveying competitive or cooperative appraisals). In a first study with non-reasoning models (Claude 3.5, Gemini 2.0 Flash, GPT-4o), cooperation was systematically shaped by all three factors, paralleling patterns long documented in human behavioral research, though models varied substantially in how heavily each factor was weighted. A second study with reasoning models (Claude 4.6, Gemini 3, GPT-5.2) revealed a more concentrated reliance on strategy and reputation, a near-elimination of the Potemkin effect observed in non-reasoning models (evidenced by near-uniform cooperation in a diagnostic harmony game), and a more conditional role for emotion consistent with a hierarchical cue-weighting strategy rather than a simple loss of social sensitivity. Reasoning models also showed heterogeneous end-game behavior, ranging from sustained cooperation to systematic last-round defection effect, revealing model-specific exploitability profiles with direct practical relevance for deployment in negotiation and other multi-round interactions. Together, these findings characterize Gen AI models as increasingly sophisticated, though heterogeneous, social actors, and underscore the practical value of developing standardized cooperation benchmarks to inform the responsible deployment of Gen AI in interactive, socially consequential settings.