Toward Equitable Low-Carbon Mobility: Fairness-Aware Demand Prediction for Expanding Bike-Sharing Systems

The rapid growth of dockless bike-sharing systems has generated massive spatio-temporal datasets useful for fleet allocation, congestion reduction, and sustainable mobility. Bike demand, however, depends on several external factors, making traditional time-series models insufficient. Centralized Machine Learning (CML) yields high-accuracy forecasts but raises privacy and bandwidth issues when data are distributed across edge devices. To overcome these limitations, we propose Bikelution, an efficient Federated Learning (FL) solution based on gradient-boosted trees that preserves privacy while delivering accurate mid-term demand forecasts up to six hours ahead. Experiments on three real-world BSS datasets show that Bikelution is comparable to its CML-based variant and outperforms the current state-of-the-art. The results highlight the feasibility of privacy-aware demand forecasting and outline the trade-offs between FL and CML approaches.

Urban bike-sharing systems require strategic station expansion to meet growing demand. Traditional allocation approaches rely on explicit demand modelling that may not capture the urban characteristics distinguishing successful stations. This study addresses the need to exploit patterns from existing stations to inform expansion decisions, particularly in data-constrained environments. We present a data-driven framework leveraging existing stations deemed desirable by operational metrics. A hybrid denoising autoencoder (HDAE) learns compressed latent representations from multi-source grid-level features (socio-demographic, built environment, and transport network), with a supervised classification head regularising the embedding space structure. Expansion candidates are selected via greedy allocation with spatial constraints based on latent-space similarity to existing stations. Evaluation on Trondheim's bike-sharing network demonstrates that HDAE embeddings yield more spatially coherent clusters and allocation patterns than raw features. Sensitivity analyses across similarity methods and distance metrics confirm robustness. A consensus-based procedure across multiple parametrisations distils 32 high-confidence extension zones where all parametrisations agree. The results demonstrate how representation learning captures complex patterns that raw features miss, enabling evidence-based expansion planning without explicit demand modelling. The consensus procedure strengthens recommendations by requiring agreement across parametrisations, while framework configurability allows planners to incorporate operational knowledge. The methodology generalises to any location-allocation problem where existing desirable instances inform the selection of new candidates.

Accurate station-level demand forecasting is essential for the efficient operation of bike-sharing systems, yet it remains challenging due to complex spatio-temporal dependencies and the large scale of urban networks. This paper presents STAGformer, a Spatio-Temporal Agent Graph Transformer that achieves efficient global modeling with linear computational complexity. The model introduces a two-step agent attention mechanism, where a small set of learnable spatial and temporal agent tokens first aggregate global information and then broadcast it back to individual stations and time steps, effectively capturing long-range interactions while reducing the quadratic cost of standard self-attention to O(NT). STAGformer integrates four core modules: a spatio-temporal encoder that fuses dynamic node features with external contextual factors (weather, time, points of interest), a graph propagation module for spatial neighbor aggregation, a temporal convolution module for local pattern extraction, and the agent attention module for global dependency modeling. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets -- NYC Citi-Bike and Chicago Divvy-Bike -- demonstrate that STAGformer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple prediction horizons, achieving significant improvements in both RMSE and MAE. Ablation studies validate the contribution of each component, with the agent attention mechanism proving critical for modeling global spatio-temporal dependencies.