Certified Safety Radii in Forecast-Error Space for Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Small Signal Stability-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow via Lifted Spectrahedral Containment

AC optimal power flow determines the minimum-cost generation dispatch under nonlinear power balance constraints and is solved thousands of times daily in electricity market operations. Learning a direct mapping from load conditions to OPF solutions can accelerate this computation, yet with deepening renewable penetration, a single optimal dispatch is no longer sufficient. Operators require a characterization of the distribution of feasible near-optimal solutions for risk quantification, sensitivity analysis, and multi-objective trade-off assessment. Supervised neural networks provide fast point predictions but cannot capture this conditional distribution. Diffusion-based generative models can sample diverse solutions in principle, yet existing methods operating in the raw state space exhibit degraded solution quality and fail to scale beyond medium-sized systems. We identify the root cause as the conflation of two distinct tasks within a single model. Compressing the high-dimensional OPF solution manifold is one task, and learning the conditional mapping from loads to that manifold is another. This paper presents FMOPF, a framework that resolves this conflation by decoupling compression from generation through latent flow matching and by explicitly modeling load-state coupling through a Constraint-Aware Interaction Prior Network. Experiments on four IEEE test systems demonstrate that FMOPF provides the most effective Newton-Raphson warm starts, achieves the lowest tail risk among generative methods, and is the first such method to scale to systems with several hundred buses while preserving full feasibility. Ablation studies confirm that the latent generation pipeline is a necessary condition for physical feasibility and that the interaction prior functions as a late-stage tail-risk controller.

We study distributionally robust linear chance-constrained problems in which uncertainty is modeled by a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Finite-support distributionally robust (FDR) formulations, widely used in data-driven robust optimization, robustify over empirical mixture support points and therefore primarily stress-test the fitted nominal mixture. This can be insufficient when service reliability depends on structural misspecification of the nominal mixture-support parameters. To address this limitation, we describe the ambiguity set of distributions by developing a novel formulation of a Wasserstein-2 metric that uses the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) metric over probability measures with finite second moments. Unlike FDR, which generally sets finitely many empirical support points a priori, the proposed ambiguity set allows the worst-case distribution to endogenously determine both how many mixture components receive mass and where their means and covariances lie within a continuous support. For the resulting ambiguity set, under mild regularity conditions, we prove strong duality for the inner worst-case chance-constraint problem and derive its semi-infinite reformulation. We then develop an adaptive cutting-surface algorithm, which endogenously determines the locations of mixture components receiving mass, and the mean and covariances of the Gaussian distributions at these locations. The algorithm attains any prescribed optimality gap in finitely many iterations, while a block-alternating local search identifies new components. A case study using the electric-vehicle charging-station energy-allocation problem demonstrates the framework's practical value in achieving any reliability targets. CDR also induces structural changes in energy allocations, unlike FDR, whose allocations remain close to the nominal solution.

In this work, we study how to ensure probabilistic safety for nonlinear systems under distributional ambiguity. Our approach builds on a backup-based safety filtering framework that switches between a high-performance nominal policy and a certified backup policy to ensure safety. To handle arbitrary uncertainties from ambiguous distributions, i.e., where the distribution is not of specific structure and the true distribution is unknown, we adopt a distributionally robust (DR) formulation using Wasserstein ambiguity sets. Rather than solving a high-dimensional DR trajectory optimization problem online, we exploit the structure of backup-based safety filtering to reduce safety certification to a one-dimensional search over the switching time between nominal and backup policies. We then develop a sampling-based certification procedure with finite-sample guarantees, where empirical failure probabilities are compared against a Wasserstein-inflated threshold. We validate our method through simulations across three systems, from a Dubins vehicle to a high-speed racing car and a fighter jet, demonstrating the broad applicability and computational efficiency.