Informative Label Missingness in Multiclass Classification Information Geometry and Excess Risk

We consider semi-supervised classification from a partially classified sample arising from a two-component Weibull mixture. The feature is observed for all data, whereas some class labels are missing. The probability of a missing label is modelled as a function of classification uncertainty, giving a feature-dependent missing-at-random (MAR) mechanism that shares parameters with the Weibull-mixture classifier. The missing-label indicators can therefore provide information about the classifier in addition to the observed features and available class labels. Under a common Weibull shape, a Bayes' rule has at most one positive decision boundary, which is unique when the rule is nonconstant; under unequal shapes, it can have two. We characterise these decision regions, derive the Fisher information for the classifier after adjustment for nuisance parameters in the missingness model, and obtain a decision-boundary expansion of the expected error rate of the plug-in sample rule relative to the Bayes error. The expansion yields classification-specific asymptotic relative efficiency formulas for the one- and two-boundary cases and shows that a positive-definite increase in Fisher information is sufficient, but not necessary, for a smaller first-order expected error rate. Numerical studies and a semi-synthetic analysis based on hard-drive failure data illustrate potential reductions in expected error rate and improvements in decision-boundary estimation from modelling feature-dependent label missingness.

In many classification problems, reliable instance-level labels are unavailable. However, it is often possible to construct weakly enriched unlabeled samples: datasets selected by different cuts, sources, populations, or experimental conditions that change latent class proportions without revealing them. Classification without Labels (CWoLa) shows that, in the binary case ($K=2$), a classifier trained to distinguish two impure mixtures with different class proportions can recover an optimal class discriminator without knowing the mixture proportions. We extend this principle to multiclass learning from several unlabeled mixtures ($K>2$), where the learner observes only mixture identity and neither latent class labels nor class-prior matrices. We prove that, for a multiclass mixture model, the Bayes-optimal mixture classifier $g^\star$ maps data points into a $(K-1)$-simplex embedded in mixture-posterior space. The $K$ vertices of this simplex are induced by the latent classes through the unknown mixing matrix. Leveraging this geometry, we propose prior-free procedures that train a standard classifier to distinguish mixture identities and then extract latent class structure using either post-hoc simplex fitting or a bottleneck architecture. Experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and Galaxy10 DECaLS show that mixture identity alone can recover latent classes and their fractions in the mixture. By narrowing the gap between weakly supervised and fully supervised performance, we provide a mathematically grounded, scalable tool for multiclass discovery in label-scarce domains.

This paper studies the information gap between mixture detection and label recovery in binomial logistic mixtures. Standard likelihood-based criteria such as the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) can detect the presence of two components, but this does not guarantee that the corresponding labels are recoverable. We show that this gap is intrinsic to binomial logistic mixtures with a fixed number of trials: observed-data evidence for mixture structure and per-observation information for label recovery have different local orders in the component separation, and only the former accumulates with the sample size. As a result, there exists a detectable-but-unrecoverable regime in which BIC selects two components while the posterior labels remain essentially uninformative. To address this issue, we propose two feasibility-aware inference procedures: a recoverability-aware BIC with a posterior-entropy penalty and an entropy-regularized estimator that mitigates the tendency of the maximum likelihood estimator to produce overly separated components and overly concentrated posterior responsibilities. Numerical experiments confirm the predicted gap and demonstrate that the proposed methods avoid misleading component selections and improve the calibration of posterior label probabilities.