The Dually Flat Geometry of Planning as Inference

Reinforcement learning is conventionally divided into model-based and model-free methods. In this taxonomy, model-based methods perform lookahead planning over a learned world model, whereas model-free methods learn a reactive state-action mapping. Recent work, however, has shown that planning can emerge from model-free reinforcement learning alone. The conditions under which this behavior emerges from a pure reward-maximization objective have so far remained unclear. In this paper, we present evidence that, in the observed cases, the hidden-state structure of the neural architecture is the deciding factor. We find that a network of relational hidden states, each anchored to an environment state and exchanging messages along learned relations, acquires a planning mechanism. These hidden states recover the environment's transition structure in their learned relations, and improve the policy at decision time by planning over the learned graph. In a matched control agent that must additionally discover which cells represent which states, no such binding arises, and no planning follows from it. We argue that this explains the observed phenomenon of emergent planning in model-free reinforcement learning and raises the question of how common such emergent planning might be more generally. Finally, we hypothesize that the discovered mechanism could describe how planning emerges from pure reward maximization in the human brain through a neural architectural prior.

We present a geometric framework for Reinforcement Learning (RL) that views policies as maps into the Wasserstein space of action probabilities. First, we define a Riemannian structure induced by stationary distributions, proving its existence in a general context. We then define the tangent space of policies and characterize the geodesics, specifically addressing the measurability of vector fields mapped from the state space to the tangent space of probability measures over the action space. Next, we formulate a general RL optimization problem and construct a gradient flow using Otto's calculus. We compute the gradient and the Hessian of the energy, providing a formal second-order analysis. Finally, we illustrate the method with numerical examples for low-dimensional problems, computing the gradient directly from our theoretical formalism. For high-dimensional problems, we parameterize the policy using a neural network and optimize it based on an ergodic approximation of the cost.

Planning under uncertainty requires agents to balance goal achievement with information gathering. Active inference addresses this through the Expected Free Energy (EFE), a cost function that unifies instrumental and epistemic objectives. However, existing EFE-based methods typically employ specialized optimization procedures that are difficult to extend or analyze. In this paper, we show that EFE-based planning can be formulated as Variational Free Energy minimization on a generative model augmented with epistemic priors. Our main result demonstrates that minimizing a Variational Free Energy functional with appropriately chosen priors yields a decomposition into expected plan costs (the EFE) plus a complexity term. This formulation reinforces theoretical consistency with the Free Energy Principle by casting planning as the same inferential process that governs perception and learning. We validate our approach on three environments of increasing complexity: a deterministic T-maze, a stochastic Reactivity Maze, and a partially observable MiniGrid DoorKey-8x8 environment. The experiments demonstrate that the epistemic priors induce information-seeking behavior, that the variational formulation yields policy-based inference outperforming plan-based methods under stochastic transitions, and that temporal factorization enables scalability to environments where existing tabular active inference methods cannot operate.