Conformity Breaks Conformal Prediction

Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that has recently been adapted to large language models (LLMs), providing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability. Yet for LLMs, nonconformity scores are often induced by an inference pipeline, not just a fixed model, making them depend not only on the data distribution but also on configurable factors such as the prompt template, decoding parameters, and deployment setting. Since such configurations are routinely modified in practice but rarely treated as a source of shift, their impact on CP validity remains poorly understood. We call this configuration shift and study it systematically along three axes: prompt template, decoding temperature, and weight quantization. In a broad empirical study spanning $9$ LLMs, $4$ datasets, and $4$ nonconformity scores, we find that configuration shift consistently erodes CP validity, often driving empirical coverage below the target. By contrast, efficiency is largely preserved: valid prediction sets remain close in size to the i.i.d. baseline. We derive coverage lower bounds that attribute this loss to a discrepancy between calibration and test score distributions, and use their finite-sample plug-in versions as empirical diagnostics of shift severity. We further show that these findings lead to practical mitigations: bound-inspired recalibration is effective with limited test examples, while fragility-aware calibration ensembling recovers much of the lost coverage without test data.

Large language models are increasingly deployed in settings where reliability matters, yet output-level uncertainty signals such as token probabilities, entropy, and self-consistency can become brittle under calibration--deployment mismatch. Conformal prediction provides finite-sample validity under exchangeability, but its practical usefulness depends on the quality of the nonconformity score. We propose a conformal framework for LLM question answering that uses internal representations rather than output-facing statistics: specifically, we introduce Layer-Wise Information (LI) scores, which measure how conditioning on the input reshapes predictive entropy across model depth, and use them as nonconformity scores within a standard split conformal pipeline. Across closed-ended and open-domain QA benchmarks, with the clearest gains under cross-domain shift, our method achieves a better validity--efficiency trade-off than strong text-level baselines while maintaining competitive in-domain reliability at the same nominal risk level. These results suggest that internal representations can provide more informative conformal scores when surface-level uncertainty is unstable under distribution shift.

Large language models are increasingly used in multi-agent systems, where they see and respond to other agents' answers. A key risk is conformity: a model may abandon its own answer simply because others agree on a different one. Prior studies show that LLMs often revise toward a majority answer, but it remains unclear whether these revisions help correct mistakes as often as they introduce new errors. In this paper, we conduct a controlled study in which an LLM first answers a question, then sees simulated peer responses before making a final decision. We manipulate two social cues: consensus structure and authority labels assigned to peers, and measure how they influence beneficial and harmful revisions. Across four open-weight LLMs and seven QA datasets, we find that peer agreement makes it much easier to mislead initially correct models than to correct initially wrong ones. Authority labels make models more likely to choose the endorsed answer, regardless of whether it is correct. More concerningly, generic reasoning interventions such as chain-of-thought and reflection do not reliably reduce harmful revision while preserving beneficial revision. These findings suggest that multi-agent LLM systems should verify peer answers rather than simply aggregate them.