Snugi-AI-v2 @ eRisk 2026 Task 2: Early Depression Detection via a Learned Stopping Policy with Sustained Confidence Gate

Depression is one of the most prevalent and debilitating mental health conditions worldwide, frequently underdiagnosed and undertreated. The proliferation of social media platforms provides a rich source of naturalistic linguistic signals for the automated monitoring of psychological well-being. In this work, we propose a system based on Large Language Models (LLMs) for depression risk assessment in Reddit posts, through multi-label classification of eight depression-associated emotions and the computation of a weighted severity index. The method is evaluated in a zero-shot setting on the annotated DepressionEmo dataset (~6,000 posts) and applied in-the-wild to 469,692 comments collected from four subreddits over the period 2024-2025. Our best model, gemma3:27b, achieves micro-F1 = 0.75 and macro-F1 = 0.70, results competitive with purpose-built fine-tuned models (BART: micro-F1 = 0.80, macro-F1 = 0.76). The in-the-wild analysis reveals consistent and temporally stable risk profiles across communities, with marked differences between r/depression and r/anxiety. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of a cost-effective, scalable approach for large-scale psychological monitoring.

We describe DS@GT's submission to the eRisk 2026 Task 1 challenge on conversational depression screening, in which systems interview LLM personas that simulate individuals with varying depression profiles and produce a Beck Depression Inventory II (BDI-II) score plus four key symptoms per persona, without directly asking sensitive mental health questions. Our pipeline evolved through three stages: a monolithic single-model prototype to start off, a baseline multi-agent architecture that separates conversational interviewing from BDI-II scoring under a coordinating orchestration layer, and a final hybrid configuration that replaces the paid GPT-5-nano interviewer with the open-source Gemma 27B. To offset the model's weaker reasoning and instruction-following, the hybrid adds three algorithmic components: a precomputed dialogue tree that standardizes interview openers and follow-ups, a reliability-weighted consensus aggregation inspired by the Weaver framework, and a cluster-based imputation step for unprobed symptoms. We submitted three fully automated runs across all 20 personas, with Run 1 from the paid baseline and Runs 2 and 3 from the hybrid. Hybrid Run 3 achieved an ADODL of 0.9063, ranking 3rd among all complete-submission runs and placing DS@GT 2nd among the 21 teams overall, while outperforming our paid baseline Run 1 (0.8841) at roughly one-quarter of the per-persona API cost. These results support our central hypothesis that with sufficient algorithmic supervision, a weaker open-source model can compete with a stronger proprietary model in the conversational interviewer role. Our source code is available at https://github.com/dsgt-arc/erisk-task1-2026.

Depression is the leading cause of disability worldwide, and early detection of symptom change is essential for timely intervention. Validated instruments such as the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) support symptom monitoring at scale, but real-world completion rates are low, introducing response bias and systematic missingness. Passive approaches that infer severity from routinely generated data could close this gap. We address this by predicting PHQ-9 total scores directly from transcripts of conversations between users and an AI mental health application, requiring only conversation text and no additional clinical data. We fine-tune a Qwen3.5-27B backbone with a regression head, augment 3,111 ground-truth labels with pseudolabels generated by a reasoning model (Claude Opus) and iteratively trained intermediate models, for a combined dataset of 6,283 users. On a held-out test set of 842 users, our best model achieves MAE = 2.6, RMSE = 4.0, Pearson r = 0.80, and AUC = 0.91 at the PHQ-9 >= 10 clinical threshold. We also find AUC > 0.87 at every severity threshold from PHQ-9 >= 3 to PHQ-9 >= 24, demonstrating that the model captures depression severity across the full clinical spectrum. This work opens the door to passive, continuous symptom monitoring in AI mental health platforms, without requiring users to complete self-report measures.