Brain-age prediction models are commonly evaluated by predictive accuracy, yet accurate predictions alone do not establish that a model relies on reproducible or neurobiologically supported mechanisms. Post-hoc explanation methods can expose these mechanisms, but existing workflows typically stop at diagnosis or require correction targets to be specified before model analysis. We propose XAI-Refine, an automated explanation-knowledge loop for brain-age prediction from resting-state functional connectivity. At each iteration, XAI-Refine consolidates complementary post-hoc analyses across repeated training runs into reliable, structured model explanations. It converts each reliable explanation into a neutral neurobiological question, retrieves and verifies relevant literature, and compiles the verified evidence into an admissible set in the same typed explanation space. The target for refinement is defined as the minimal projection of the current model explanation onto the admissible set induced by applicable verified knowledge. This revised explanation is then translated into a differentiable constraint while preserving the originating model variable, measurement operator, and applicable scope. Candidate updates are promoted only when multi-seed validation confirms target-directed explanatory movement, predictive performance remains within a prespecified guardrail, and non-target explanatory drift remains bounded. Experiments on functional-connectivity-based brain-age prediction evaluate predictive performance, explanation reliability, literature alignment, and target-specific model revision, illustrating a structured route from post-hoc analysis to evidence-guided model refinement.
Brain age - the age inferred from a physiological recording - is an emerging biomarker whose deviation from chronological age tracks neurological and psychiatric burden, and EEG is an attractive substrate for it because it is cheap, portable, and temporally rich. Yet EEG brain-age models must contend with cross-site montage heterogeneity, small labelled cohorts, and dominant subject-level non-stationarity, and few EEG foundation models have been shown to deliver competitive age regression across the full pediatric to older adult range in which such a biomarker would actually be deployed. We introduce STST-JEPA, a self-supervised transformer for resting-state and task EEG, pretrained on 47,703 sessions spanning ages 5-81 from the brain.space and Healthy Brain Network (HBN) corpora. The model combines a latent-prediction objective - predicting masked-token representations against an EMA-of-tokenizer target - with an auxiliary signal-reconstruction term, applied to 30-second multi-channel windows under spatiotemporal block masks. A lightweight attentive probe trained on frozen pretrained embeddings achieves a best held-out-validation mean absolute error of 3.06 years (r = 0.924) for age regression on 3,367 sessions, against a predict-the-mean baseline of approximately 10 years MAE. With light task-specific finetuning of the model's final layers, the same pretrained encoder achieves rank-1 placements - with the model's native 30-second windows - on the public NeuralBench x brain.space EEG leaderboard for sex classification (balanced accuracy 0.911), age prediction (r = 0.749), and psychopathology composite regression (r = 0.215). We further show that the model's age-prediction residual is negatively correlated with cognitive efficiency over several tasks we examined.
Model explainability is essential for understanding and trusting machine learning models. Existing explainable AI methods often explain predictions through feature importance, counterfactual explanations, or rules. However, a region-level characterization of when and only when a prediction behavior arises remains less explored. This paper proposes Causal Sufficient and Necessary Regional Explanations (SNRE), a framework that learns an input region A and output region B such that membership in A is both sufficient and necessary for the model output to fall in B. Motivated by the classical Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS), we formulate a region-level PNS measure through stochastic interventions and derive a differentiable finite-sample estimator for optimization. SNRE parameterizes the input-output region pair with explicit and interpretable algebraic region families, together with a learnable feature mask, balancing expressiveness and interpretability. Experiments demonstrate that SNRE learns region pairs with strong sufficiency-necessity performance, robust explanation behavior, and practical utility for model analysis.
Explaining machine-learning models is increasingly important for decision-making and consumer trust, yet it is widely believed to come at a cost: existing Explainable AI (XAI) methods suffer from a persistent accuracy-explainability trade-off. We argue that this trade-off is not fundamental, but an artifact of treating explanation and prediction as separate objectives; when properly coupled, they become complementary, so that equipping a model to explain itself improves, rather than degrades, its accuracy. We introduce the Rashomon Explanation paradigm, which builds a set of faithful, prediction-guiding explanations rather than a single one, and prove that this set is generally non-empty and that explanation fidelity bounds the performance of the models it guides. To explore this set, we propose RashomonLLM, an Explanation-Prediction-Reflection agentic workflow that generates explanations in natural language by iteratively aligning them with predictions, and we prove it converges and recovers the full set. Across customer-churn classification, clinical survival regression, and industrial click-through prediction on large-scale live-streaming logs, RashomonLLM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art prediction and XAI baselines on both accuracy and explanation quality, with gains driven by explanation fidelity and robust to distribution shifts, temporal splits, and seeds. Our framework thus advances business performance while laying the groundwork for consumer trust.