When More Is Not Better: Component Anti-Synergy in a P300 Speller

Electroencephalography (EEG)-based P300 brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) enable communication without physical movement by detecting stimulus-evoked neural responses. Accurate and efficient decoding remains challenging due to high dimensionality, temporal dependence, and complex interactions across EEG channels. Existing approaches often treat channels independently or rely on black-box models, limiting interpretability and personalization. We propose a sparse Bayesian time-varying regression framework that explicitly models pairwise EEG channel interactions while performing temporal feature selection, where a relaxed-thresholded Gaussian process prior induces structured sparsity in both channel-specific and interaction effects, enabling interpretable identification of task-relevant channels and channel pairs. Applied to a public P300 speller dataset of 55 participants, our method achieves a 96.4% median character-level accuracy using all sequence repetitions and attains the best overall decoding performance among competing statistical and deep learning approaches. Incorporating channel interactions yields subgroup-specific gains in character-level accuracy, particularly among participants abstained from alcohol (median 7%, up to 14%). Importantly, our approach improves median BCI-Utility by more than 10% at its optimal operating point, achieving peak throughput after only six sequence repetitions. These results demonstrate that explicitly modeling structured EEG channel interactions within a principled Bayesian framework enhances accuracy and user-centric throughput, and supports personalization in P300 BCI systems.

For predictive models, the often-reported performance metrics are the loss and accuracy. In synchronous Brain- Computer Interface (BCI) systems, these metrics are informative for most BCI paradigms; however, for Event-Related Potential (ERP) applications the spelling rate, which measures the number of characters correctly selected is more important as it influences the estimation of information transfer rate (ITR) and any related metric measuring spelling performance. Moreover, ERP-based BCIs hold imbalanced data class distributions, which require reporting metrics that can handle the imbalance, such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC). In this work, we study the correlation of the spelling rate with 13 metrics to identify which among them best reflect user spelling performance and how they are affected by trial repetition. The Results of two datasets (a private LARESI ERP dataset and the public OpenBMI ERP dataset) favor the Brier score, Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), and the metrics that account for class imbalance in binary classification: ROC AUC, area under the Precision-Recall curve (PR AUC), Average Precision (AP), and partial AUC (pAUC). These findings encourage researchers and practitioners to report those metrics in ERP-based BCI experiments.

Electroencephalography (EEG) is the dominant non-invasive modality for brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), yet reliable decoding of motor imagery is hampered by inter- and intra-individual variability. A recurring claim is that one decoding pipeline, most often a spatial or Riemannian method, is broadly preferable. We test the weakest version of that claim under the most favourable conditions. Using the Mother of All BCI Benchmarks (MOABB) framework, we evaluated 1,056 decoding configurations (feature extractor x scaler x classifier), >340,000 subject-level model fits, across three public left-versus-right motor-imagery datasets (PhysionetMI, 109 participants; Cho2017, 52; Zhou2016, 4) and two frequency bands (8-15 Hz, 8-30 Hz). Every model is fit and tested within a single session of a single participant, the easiest regime, giving every pipeline its best chance. We apply the statistics standard for multi-classifier comparison: Friedman omnibus tests, Nemenyi critical-difference analysis and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests with effect sizes. Covariance tangent-space projection (cov-tgsp) and Common Spatial Patterns (CSP) are the strongest families, but their ordering is dataset-dependent and, on the largest and most heterogeneous cohort (PhysionetMI), statistically indistinguishable (Nemenyi p = 0.27; Kendall's W = 0.11). At the individual level the single best pipeline is optimal for only 35% of PhysionetMI participants, and nonlinear descriptors are best for roughly one third; matching pipeline to participant adds about seven accuracy points over the best fixed choice. The ranking is not an artefact of dimensionality, and classifier and scaler choices are secondary to the feature representation. Even in the easiest regime, no single pipeline dominates: a lower bound on the personalization problem and a quantitative case for participant-aware model selection rather than a universal decoder.