Diagnosing Temporal Misalignment in Multichannel Time-Series Classification with Minimum Description Length

Classifiers for time-series classification are commonly selected on validation data, but the temporal pattern of missing observations at deployment may differ from the pattern seen during validation. We examine whether such a mismatch affects validation-based classifier selection. In a controlled $2 \times 2$ design, validation and test sets of 64 univariate UCR datasets were masked with either random point missingness or circular block missingness at six rates from 5% to 30%, imputed by linear interpolation, and used to select among three prespecified candidates: 1NN-DTW, MiniRocket with a Ridge classifier, and a statistical-feature Random Forest. Training data remained complete, and selections made under matched and mismatched validation patterns were compared on the same masked test sets. Mismatched validation reduced the test balanced accuracy of the selected classifier by 1.14 percentage points on average (95% CI 0.79 to 1.51), with losses on 49 of the 64 datasets. The loss was negligible at 5% missingness and increased to 2.46 percentage points at 30%. It was concentrated in point-masked deployment (1.84 percentage points), where block-masked validation shifted selection away from the usually best candidate, while the effect for block-masked deployment was small and not significant. Mismatch changed the selected classifier in 35.5% of paired comparisons, but a changed selection did not always reduce performance. A supplementary analysis with non-wrapping linear blocks reproduced these findings with a larger effect (1.67 percentage points). Matching the missingness pattern of validation data to the expected deployment pattern is therefore a simple safeguard for method selection, particularly at higher missingness rates.

Reconstruction errors in multivariate time-series anomaly detection may not reliably distinguish abnormal behavior from benign deviations. Language-derived semantics offer complementary context, but existing multimodal approaches may rely on time-associated paired textual information that is difficult to obtain consistently and is not provided by standard multivariate time-series anomaly detection benchmarks. This setting poses two challenges: (1) conditioning masked reconstruction on window-specific semantics without exposing exact numerical targets or anomaly-specific cues, and (2) using a window-independent concept of normality as a complementary semantic reference rather than an independent anomaly detector. We propose LLM-Enhanced Alignment and Reconstruction with Normality Guidance for Time Series (LEARN-TS), which uses a frozen language model to construct two role-separated semantic representations without requiring temporally paired external text. Window-specific observation semantics encode temporal and cross-variable context without exact numerical values to guide channel-shared patch-masked reconstruction. A fixed, dataset-agnostic normality prompt provides a window-independent semantic reference for aligning normal representations and estimating normality discrepancy. At inference, masking each temporal patch once yields timestamp-level reconstruction evidence, conditionally modulated by discrepancy from a separate unmasked view. Across four benchmarks, LEARN-TS achieves the highest mean performance in 13 of 16 dataset-metric comparisons. Controlled ablations examine observation conditioning, joint normality alignment and scoring, and reference content, showing dataset-dependent ranking benefits and modest average gains from semantic over random references.

Temporal classification errors are often treated as representation failures, but they can also arise from how available evidence is converted into decisions. This paper proposes a representation--calibration decomposition for temporal classification. We keep a trained native classifier frozen and separate two inference-time interventions: a conservative residual multi-scale branch that adds auxiliary logits to the native prediction, and a post-hoc branch-aware calibrator that recombines native and residual evidence at decision time. This design distinguishes missing temporal evidence from underused decision-level evidence without retraining the backbone. Across FI-2010, PTB-XL, UCI-HAR, MHEALTH, and HARTH, we find that gains are strongly regime-dependent. Residual multi-scale evidence is most useful in noisy or representation-limited settings, especially short-horizon FI-2010 and weaker recurrent backbones, while branch-aware calibration helps when native and auxiliary logits contain complementary evidence not fully exploited by the raw decision rule. Near-saturated settings show limited gains from either intervention. These results suggest that temporal classification should be understood not only as representation learning, but also as the problem of trusting, combining, and calibrating evidence from multiple views.