Weighted majority votes are central to many successful ensemble methods. PAC-Bayesian theory provides tight generalization guarantees for such models by analyzing the expected risk of stochastic classifiers, while analyzing the risk of deterministic majority votes relies on surrogate bounds. To avoid these surrogates, Zantedeschi et al. ( 2021) introduced guarantees for stochastic majority votes, but the resulting models remain randomized. In this paper, we propose a derandomization framework for stochastic majority votes. To do so, we apply recent advances in disintegrated PAC-Bayesian theory directly to the space of majority vote weight vectors, transforming stochastic guarantees into certificates for a single deterministic majority vote. We derive two families of high-probability generalization bounds, covering both data-independent and data-dependent constructions of the ensemble, which naturally lead to a self-bounding learning algorithm optimizing deterministic majority vote guarantees.
We give a short proof that the majority vote of three independent consistent classifiers is an optimal learner in the realizable PAC setting. This proves optimality for the simplest voting scheme, while simplifying both the algorithmic structure and the probabilistic analysis of previous voting learners, including the algorithm of S. Hanneke and the analysis of bagging by K. Green Larsen.
We study PAC-Bayes derandomization for smooth loss functions. Our goal is to obtain generalization bounds that hold with high probability for deterministic predictors by exploiting smoothness properties of both the loss and the predictor class. We show that passing from the Gibbs predictor to the deterministic predictor at the posterior mean has a precise cost, given by the generalization gap of the Jensen gap class. We control this class through its Rademacher complexity, leading to bounds for deterministic predictors that involve flatness quantities expressed in terms of parameter Jacobians and Hessians of the score map. The framework applies to both bounded and unbounded smooth loss functions, and we specialize the results to linear predictors and smooth neural networks. Finally, the Jacobian and Hessian quantities appearing in the theory motivate a practical regularizer. For BatchNorm networks, we compute this regularizer with respect to effective BatchNorm weights obtained by folding the BatchNorm transformation into the adjacent affine weights. Experiments on CIFAR-10 illustrate the behavior of this regularizer under different batch sizes.
Alexandre Lemire Paquin, Brahim Chaib-Draa, Philippe Giguère
Majority voting is one of the few black-box interventions that can improve a fixed stochastic predictor: repeated access can be cheaper than changing a high-capability model. Classical fixed-competence theory makes this intervention look monotone -- more votes help above the majority threshold and hurt below it. We show that this picture is fundamentally incomplete. Under the de Finetti representation for exchangeable repeated correctness, voting is governed by a latent distribution of per-example correctness probabilities. Even simple latent mixtures can generate sharply different voting curves, including nonmonotone behavior and, in an explicit construction, infinitely many trend changes. The full latent law determines the curve, but the curve does not determine the law. The exact object recovered by voting is a signed voting signature: at each binomial variance scale, it records excess latent mass above rather than below the majority threshold. Our main theorem proves that the complete odd-budget curve and this signature are equivalent: the curve increments are signed Hausdorff moments, and the full curve recovers the signature uniquely. This viewpoint explains shape phenomena, branch-symmetric nonidentifiability, realizability, variation, and endpoint rates. It also separates estimation regimes: direct per-example success-probability information targets the full signature, whereas fixed-depth grouped labels reveal only a finite prefix.