A Synthetic Multivariate Refrigerator Time-Series Dataset for Predictive Maintenance

Predicting failures before they occur remains a major challenge in predictive maintenance, particularly when failures are rare, when equipment of the same family differ in sensor configurations, and when the goal is anticipation rather than diagnosis of an already observed fault. This paper proposes a common-to-target probabilistic model that learns shared failure-related patterns across a family of heterogeneous equipment and adapts parsimoniously to target equipment. The model explicitly accounts for sensor heterogeneity, operating context, and degradation dynamics to produce calibrated failureprobability estimates suitable for maintenance planning. Its performance is evaluated on a synthetic refrigerator dataset comprising 27 simulated refrigerators with varying sensor configurations, operating conditions, and failure types, providing a controlle

Training robust multivariate time series forecasting models requires large, diverse corpora, yet many real-world domains provide only a handful of observed sequences. Existing generators fail to resolve this mismatch: prior-based approaches (e.g., CauKer, TimePFN) produce domain-agnostic samples, while data-driven methods (e.g., TimeGAN) treat references as black-box supervision, forfeiting explicit control over periodic structure, local variability, and cross-variable dynamics. We propose ReGeN, a reference-guided generative pipeline that treats observed sequences not as examples to imitate, but as structural scaffolds for controllable synthesis. ReGeN decomposes each reference into three interpretable components: a phase-aligned periodic backbone capturing dominant domain morphology; per-variable stochastic residuals modeled with a deep-kernel Gaussian process; and lag-aware cross-variable dependencies injected through a structural causal model with fitted coupling coefficients. Sampling these components at controllable temperature broadens distributional coverage while preserving domain-grounded structure. We show that ReGeN-generated data consistently substitutes for real sibling data with minimal forecasting degradation, and in strongly periodic domains such as traffic, can outperform the real source itself. We further show that a foundation model pretrained on ReGeN corpora outperforms those pretrained on prior-based and data-driven synthetic alternatives. This suggests that in low-data regimes, how reference data is structurally exploited can matter as much as how much data is available.

Evaluating time series attribution methods is difficult because real-world datasets rarely provide ground truth for which time points drive a prediction. A common workaround is to generate synthetic data where class-discriminating features are placed at known locations, but each study currently reimplements this from scratch. We introduce xaitimesynth, a Python package that provides reusable infrastructure for this evaluation approach. The package generates synthetic time series following an additive model where each sample is a sum of background signal and a localized, class-discriminating feature, with the feature window automatically tracked as a ground truth mask. A fluent data generation API and YAML configuration format allow flexible and reproducible dataset definitions for both univariate and multivariate time series. The package also provides standard localization metrics, including AUC-PR, AUC-ROC, Relevance Mass Accuracy, and Relevance Rank Accuracy. xaitimesynth is open source and available at https://github.com/gregorbaer/xaitimesynth.