On Emergent Capabilities and Model Merging

Model merging combines fine-tuned checkpoints into a single multi-task model without retraining. Existing methods - such as task arithmetic, model soups, TIES, and DARE - are computationally efficient and empirically successful, but rely on heuristic design choices and lack formal optimality guarantees. We show that merging can be formulated as a convex quadratic programme over residual updates, yielding weights that minimise a squared-output calibration objective using calibration inputs and fine-tuned model outputs, and subsuming existing methods as special cases. Our framework yields a closed-form diagnostic - the fraction of residual energy captured by a chosen basis - that predicts downstream merge quality using only the calibration set. Empirically, the QP matches or outperforms existing methods in the single-layer setting, and we characterise when the optimal basis provides significant gains over the cheaper diagonal QP. We extend to multi-layer merging via a sequential layer-wise algorithm and demonstrate consistent gains across language and vision benchmarks.

Model merging is often used to combine capabilities from separately fine-tuned models without additional training, but it is unclear whether standard merging methods preserve multiple safety-relevant behaviors simultaneously. We study this question through a controlled case study using two Gemma-3-1B-IT finetunes on two complementary safety objectives: CARES harm-level classification and WildJailbreak adversarial refusal. We merge the two fine-tunes using Linear, SLERP, TIES, and DARE-TIES, and evaluate the merged models on classification accuracy, attack resistance, and benign compliance. Across all four methods, attack resistance transfers significantly more than classification accuracy: merged models retain 81-85% jailbreak refusal rates while CARES accuracy falls to at most 12.9%. Weight-space measurements suggest that this asymmetry is not caused by strongly opposing task-vector directions: the two task vectors are nearly orthogonal (cosine similarity 0.011). Instead, the refusal fine-tune induces consistently larger per-layer task-vector magnitudes, causing magnitude-sensitive methods to favor refusal updates. These results show that standard model merging can collapse safety recognition into broad refusal when safety-relevant task vectors differ substantially in scale.

Model merging combines task experts into one model and avoids joint training, retraining, or deploying many expert models, but the merged model often still underperforms task experts. We study this performance gap through feature drift, the difference between features produced by the merged model and by the expert on the same input. Our theory decomposes this drift into upstream propagation and local mismatch, tracks how it propagates and combines through later layers in forward order, and links final feature drift to output drift. This view motivates FeatCal, which uses a small calibration set to calibrate the merged model weights layer by layer in forward order, reducing feature drift while staying close to merged weights and preserving the benefits of model merging. FeatCal uses an efficient closed-form solution to update model weights, with no gradient descent, iterative optimization, or extra modules. On the main CLIP and GLUE benchmarks, FeatCal beats Surgery and ProbSurgery, the closest post-merging calibration baselines: 85.5% vs. 77.0%/78.8% on CLIP-ViT-B/32 Task Arithmetic (TA) and 85.2% vs. 83.7%/82.2% on FLAN-T5-base GLUE. On CLIP-ViT-B/32, 8 examples per task reach 82.9%, and 256 examples per task take 53 seconds, about 4x faster than both baselines, showing better sample efficiency and lower calibration cost.