Driving Epidemic Models with AI Agents: the Epydemix Agent Framework

Human behaviour during epidemics affects infectious disease dynamics, but quantifying this remains deeply challenging. Here we introduce the Epi-LLM framework: a novel integration of agent-based modelling, real-life epigames, and large language models (LLMs) in which a synthetic society of agents reasons and adapts dynamically over an outbreak contact network. Comparing synthetic agent behaviour against a no-intervention SEIR baseline and human participant data from the AUIB epigame study, we find that LLM agents across four different architectures reduced peak active infections, with quarantine compliance peaking at 58-65% on day six of the 15-day simulation. A binomial generalised linear model showed that perceived health severity was the strongest predictor of quarantine behaviour ($β= 0.33, p = 0.002$), yielding a pseudo-$R^2$ of 0.055, comparable to the 0.072 observed in the human trial. LLM architecture is a key determinant of epidemic dynamics: low-variance architectures offer greater internal validity for testing behavioural rules, while high-variance models may better represent real-world decision-making. Geographic labels alone do not induce culturally differentiated behaviour; explicit attitudinal parameterisation is required. This proof-of-principle work lays the groundwork for deploying the Epi-LLM framework as a scalable, risk-free simulation environment for pandemic preparedness research.

Agent-based modeling (ABM) has the capability to model millions of individuals and their interactions, which is useful for policy making. However, ABMs have traditionally relied on static prior, which prevents the models from adapting to real-time changes. Our research provides a novel approach to addressing this information gap. Large language models (LLMs) offer new opportunities to predict human decision-making. Here, we introduce a scalable Hybrid Agent-based and Language-driven Epidemic (HALE) modeling framework that leverages LLMs to predict human decision-making in an ABM simulation. As a proof-of-concept, we use HALE to simulate COVID-19 and its effects in Salt Lake County, UT.

Agent-based model (ABM) are a kind of computer model that makes it possible to simulate a set of autonomous interacting programs called agents in a shared virtual environment. Among other application field, it has been commonly used to simulate social phenomena such as urban segregation, opinion dynamic or epidemiological crisis [1]. Recently, a research emphasis has been put on ABM to study in silico the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak of 2020, with few of them that had a great impact on global political responses [2]. Among the model used COMOKIT [3] has been design to simulate the every-day-life of inhabitant of various cities in Vietnam and test policy interventions for various COVID-19 spread scenarios. Such endeavor required huge computational power to handle a huge number of simulation replication over a large set of parameters. In this proposal we present a python package that enables to easily generate, explore and build reports for any COMOKIT experiment to be launched over High-Performance Computing (HPC) infrastructure.