Evaluation of Multi-Turn Consistency in LLM Agents: Survival Analysis and Failure-Rationale Taxonomy
Organizations: Systems and Computer Engineering Carleton University Ottawa, ON, Canada · Department of Cognitive Science Carleton University Ottawa, ON, Canada
Abstract
Large language model (LLM) agents may perform well on isolated tasks yet drift into inconsistency over extended interaction. We evaluate temporal consistency in a controlled 20-step multi-agent setting inspired by delayed-gratification studies. At each step, an agent chooses between continuing to delay a reward or claiming it immediately (terminating the episode). Across a full-factorial manipulation of social visibility (private vs public), persona stressors, and deliberation policy, we run 84,540 trajectories spanning 8 model families. Treating the first reward-claim as a time-to-event outcome, we estimate Kaplan-Meier survival curves and fit discrete-time hazard regression to quantify how experimental factors shift failure risk over time. Then, to analyze rationales and language patterns associated with failure, we build a seven-category taxonomy from 13,780 deliberation traces from agents who choose to terminate the episode, using an LLM-assisted labeling paired with human audit (). Rationale profiles change systematically with time and context: early failures are more impulse-driven, later failures more fatigue- and cost-benefit-framed, while public settings increase norm-oriented justifications. We also find a deliberation-inconsistency association: among failures, longer deliberation correlates with higher rates of intra-rationale contradiction (simultaneous pro-delay and pro-claim statements), challenging the assumption that more reasoning text implies greater consistency. Together, the survival and rationale analyses reveal distinct temporal reliability regimes and model-specific "failure fingerprints", offering an evaluation lens for diagnosing inconsistency in multi-turn agent behavior.
Figures & tables
| Model identifier | Weight type |
|---|---|
| Gemini-2.5-Flash-Lite | Closed-weight |
| Claude-3-Haiku | Closed-weight |
| GPT-4o-mini | Closed-weight |
| Qwen3-235B | Open-weight |
| GPT-OSS-20B | Open-weight |
| DeepSeek-3.1 | Open-weight |
| Class | Feature | Lexical Items |
| Lexical | ||
| Epistemic | might, could, perhaps, possibly, probably, maybe | |
| Deontic | should, must, need, have to, ought | |
| Immediacy | now, immediately, right now | |
| Duration | already, waited, waiting, longer, still | |
| Hedonic | want, desire, crave, temptation, enjoy | |
| Data Summary | Survival Metrics (overall) | Data Quality | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model Families | 8 | Initial Eat Rate | 0.062 | Valid Rate | 99.98% |
| Total Agent Trajectories | 84,540 | Total Eat Rate | 0.176 | Valid Trajectories | 84,525 |
| Total Cells | 512 | Winners Rate | 0.824 | Invalid Trajectories | 15 |
| Risk Horizon ( ) | 20 | Median TTE (steps) | 17.0 | ||
| RMST (steps) | 16.47 | ||||
| Reasoning | Contradiction | |
|---|---|---|
| Density | % | |
| Q1 (lowest) | 0.43 | 3,479 |
| Q2 | 1.54 | 3,452 |
| Q3 | 1.15 | 3,404 |
| Q4 (highest) | 1.89 | 3,445 |
| Spearman =0.040, | ||
| Feature | Early | Late | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot features (decrease) | ||||
| Hedonic | 4.98 | 2.48 | -0.254 | 0.80 |
| Immediacy | 2.67 | 2.52 | -0.019 | 0.06 |
| Cool features (increase) | ||||
| Duration | 1.56 | 3.97 | 0.409 | 1.31 |
| Deontic | 0.53 | 1.48 | 0.272 | 0.88 |
| Model | Epist. | Arg.D. | Ctr.% | |
| High-reliability (near-flat hazard) | ||||
| Claude-3-Haiku | 2.08 | 2.40 | 0.4 | 267 |
| GPT-4o-mini | 2.39 | 3.88 | 0.0 | 15 |
| Qwen3-235B | 1.99 | 3.41 | 0.5 | 934 |
| Early-spike (impulsive failures) | ||||
| Gemini-2.5-Flash-Lite | 0.83 | 2.77 | 0.5 | 4545 |
| Contrast | OR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| MUST vs MAY | 0.093 | 1.10 | |
| Iso. vs Bcast | -0.009 | 0.99 | .514 |
| H: like vs crave | -0.807 | 0.45 | |
| H: neutral vs crave | -1.331 | 0.26 | |
| H: none vs crave | -1.439 | 0.24 | |
| A: child vs adult | 2.157 | 8.65 |
Appendix figures & tables19 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Initial eat rate | 0.0616 |
|---|---|
| Winners rate | 0.8245 |
| Median time-to-eat (steps) | 16.9785 |
| RMST (steps) | 16.4716 |
| Valid outcomes (N) | 84525 |
| Invalid outcomes (N) | 15 |
| Data quality rate | 0.9999 |
| Model identifier | Weight type |
|---|---|
| Gemini-2.5-Flash-Lite | Closed-weight |
| Claude-3-Haiku | Closed-weight |
| GPT-4o-mini | Closed-weight |
| Qwen3-235B | Open-weight |
| GPT-OSS-20B | Open-weight |
| DeepSeek-3.1 | Open-weight |
| Condition | Winners rate | Median TTE | RMST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broadcast | 0.8272 | 16.97 | 16.48 |
| Isolated | 0.8218 | 16.99 | 16.47 |
| Rationale category | Count | % of labeled |
|---|---|---|
| Impulse_Craving | 5,158 | 37.4 |
| Cost_Benefit_Expected_Value | 4,744 | 34.4 |
| Self_Control_Deontic_Stance | 1,759 | 12.8 |
| Fatigue_Depletion | 1,455 | 10.6 |
| Social_Contagion_Norm_Following | 342 | 2.5 |
| Rule_Confusion_Misbelief | 218 | 1.6 |