Confident but Wrong: A Constrained Decoding Diagnostic for Low-Resource Automatic Post-Editing
Organizations: WSO2, Sri Lanka · Dept. of CSE, University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka · National University of Singapore · Massey University, New Zealand
Abstract
Automatic Post-Editing (APE) for low-resource languages (LRLs) often fails to improve Machine Translation (MT), and the score alone cannot say why: whether more training would help, or whether the training data is too inconsistent to learn from. We introduce a black-box, inference-time diagnostic that tells these two cases apart without retraining or annotation. It varies an edit-distance penalty that drives the model from free editing towards copying the MT, and reads two signals: (1) the shape of the Translation Edit Rate (TER)-vs- curve, U-shaped if edits from the model reduce error and monotonically decreasing if none does; and (2) the ordering of constraint variants that trust model confidence to increasing degrees, which shows whether confidence tracks edit quality. Across decoder-only and encoder-decoder models on English-Sinhala, the diagnostic exposes two failure modes consistent with a heterogeneous post-edit signal as the underlying cause: Binary Collapse, where the model copies the MT or makes off-target edits, and Confident Miscalibration, where the confidence signals we test do not separate useful edits from unnecessary ones. The pattern holds on English-Marathi and English-Tamil, with the failure modes tracking the post-edit distribution rather than MT quality or language family. Beyond diagnosis, the curve shape prescribes a concrete next step for practitioners; in the favorable case, a static constraint yields a free inference-time accuracy gain. We release the first English-Sinhala (~66k) and a new English-Tamil (~39k) APE datasets with all code.
Figures & tables
| D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | |
| Lit. | News | Wiki | Math/H | NLLB | |
| Train | 5,728 | 13,305 | 17,471 | 5,754 | 10,332 |
| Valid | 716 | 1,663 | 2,184 | 719 | 1,291 |
| Test | 716 | 1,664 | 2,184 | 720 | 1,292 |
| Total | 7,160 | 16,632 | 21,839 | 7,193 | 12,915 |
| MT TER | 24.98 | 7.93 | 14.89 | 24.30 | 59.19 |
| Method | Logic | TER | TER |
| MT Baseline | – | 24.98 | – |
| Vanilla FT | – | 25.85 0.02 | 0.87 |
| Trust if confident | 25.72 0.09 | 0.74 | |
| Trust if hates MT | 25.37 0.25 | 0.39 | |
| Trust if seq. confident | 25.32 0.21 | 0.34 | |
| Don’t trust model | 24.98 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Token Category | % | Mean | Mean |
| Correct copy | 64.5 | 0.95 | 0.30 |
| Missed edit | 29.0 | 0.95 | 0.33 |
| Unnecessary edit | 5.2 | 0.80 | 0.91 |
| Correct edit | 1.2 | 0.81 | 0.84 |
| Token Category | D1 | D2 | D5 |
| Correct copy | 64.5 (.95) | 87.0 (.99) | 29.4 (.90) |
| Missed edit | 29.0 (.95) | 7.6 (.97) | 36.9 (.86) |
| Unnecessary edit | 5.2 (.80) | 3.7 (.90) | 28.4 (.77) |
| Correct edit | 1.2 (.81) | 1.7 (.95) | 5.3 (.84) |
| Model | Method | TER | BLEU | TER |
| Gemma 3 1B (decoder-only, LoRA): | ||||
| Base (zero-shot) | 190.31 | 8.88 | 165.33 | |
| Vanilla FT | 25.85 | 67.16 | 0.87 | |
| 25.72 | 67.23 | 0.74 | ||
| 25.37 | 67.45 | 0.39 | ||
| 24.98 | 67.38 | 0.00 | ||
| TER | BLEU | TER | ||
| D1: High-quality MT (Google Translate): | ||||
| MT Baseline | 24.98 | 67.38 | – | |
| Vanilla FT | 25.85 | 67.16 | 0.87 | |
| 24.98 | 67.38 | 0.00 | ||
| D5: Low-quality MT (NLLB-1.3B), Gemma 1B: | ||||
| MT Baseline | 59.19 | 30.54 | – | |
| System | TER | BLEU | TER |
| MT Baseline | 22.93 | 67.01 | – |
| Vanilla FT | 22.24 | 69.81 | +0.69 |
| 22.06 | 69.95 | +0.87 | |
| 21.83 | 69.96 | +1.10 | |
| 21.73 | 69.72 | +1.20 |
| System | TER | BLEU | TER |
| MT Baseline | 20.57 | 73.17 | – |
| Vanilla FT | 21.77 | 71.39 | 1.21 |
| 20.68 | 73.00 | 0.11 |
Appendix figures & tables45 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Strategy | TER | BLEU | chrF++ |
| MT Baseline | 28.82 | 63.24 | 77.96 |
| Zero-shot | 37.51 | 54.90 | 72.84 |
| Fixed few-shot | 34.93 | 57.61 | 74.44 |
| RAG ( ) | 37.92 | 54.47 | 72.06 |
| Two-stage (gate+edit) | 36.75 | 55.28 | 73.47 |
| Metric | Value | Baseline |
| TER | 36.75 | MT 28.82 |
| Gate precision | 0.75 | “always edit” 0.73 |
| Gate recall | 0.99 | – |
| Gate F1 | 0.85 | – |
| Edits called | 192/200 (96%) | – |
| # | User (Source + MT) | Assistant (Post-Edit) | Type |
| 1 | Source: When he saw who his visitor was his eyes brightened. MT: තම අමුත්තා කවුදැයි දුටු විට ඔහුගේ දෑස් දීප්තිමත් විය. | තම අමුත්තා කවුදැයි දුටු විට ඔහුගේ දෑස් දීප්තිමත් විය. | Copy |
| 2 | Source: They went to the football field and started their game. MT: ඔවුන් පාපන්දු පිටියට ගොස් ඔවුන්ගේ ක්රීඩාව ආරම්භ කළහ. | ඔවුන් පාපන්දු පිටියට ගොස් ඔවුන්ගේ ක්රීඩාව ආරම්භ කළහ. | Copy |
| 3 | Source: Monte Cristo bowed, and went to Madame de Villefort. MT: මොන්ටේ ක්රිස්ටෝ හිස නමා මැඩම් ඩි විල්ෆෝර්ට් වෙත ගියේය. | මොන්ටේ ක්රිස්ටෝ හිස නමා , මැඩම් ඩි විල්ෆෝර්ට් වෙත ගියේය. | Minor |
| 4 | Source: “I do not know her name; but it is she, sir, it is she!” MT: “මම ඇගේ නම දන්නේ නැහැ; නමුත් ඒ ඇයයි, සර්, මේ ඇයයි!” | “මම ඇගේ නම දන්නේ නැහැ; නමුත් ඒ ඇයයි, මහත්මයා, ඒ මේ ඇයයි!” | Minor |
| 5 | Source: He melted in the hot sun. MT: ඔහු උණුසුම් හිරු තුළ දිය වී ගියේය. | ඔහු උණුසුම් හිරු එළියේ දිය වී ගියේය. | Major |
| Domain | Triplets | Mean TER | Edit Dist. |
| Literature | 7,209 | 25.7 | 30/21/49 |
| News | 16,632 | 9.9 | 51/33/16 |
| Wikipedia | 21,839 | 14.9 | 25/45/30 |
| Maths | 6,487 | 23.3 | 29/26/45 |
| Health | 1,000 | 42.1 | 13/18/69 |
| NLLB Corpus | 12,915 | 61.0 | 2/5/93 |
| Domain | Triplets | Mean TER | Edit Dist. |
| Wiki | 19,864 | 12.7 | 41/37/23 |
| News | 10,000 | 20.2 | 44/20/36 |
| Literature | 3,501 | 26.8 | 42/13/45 |
| Maths | 3,423 | 23.6 | 25/30/44 |
| Health | 1,870 | 7.3 | 69/17/15 |
| Total | 38,658 | – | – |
| Seed 42 | Seed 52 | Seed 62 | ||||||||
| Model | Method | TER | BLEU | chrF++ | TER | BLEU | chrF++ | TER | BLEU | chrF++ |
| Gemma 1B | Vanilla | 25.84 | 67.34 | 79.58 | 25.84 | 67.06 | 79.65 | 25.88 | 67.07 | 79.49 |
| HSA | 25.26 | 67.42 | 79.78 | 25.89 | 67.20 | 79.58 | 25.60 | 67.24 | 79.62 | |
| 25.81 | 67.30 | 79.55 | 25.65 | 67.24 | 79.71 | 25.69 | 67.14 | 79.54 | ||
| 25.65 | 67.34 | 79.65 | 25.18 | 67.59 | 79.88 | 25.29 | 67.43 | 79.72 | ||
| 24.97 | 67.31 | 79.86 | 25.07 | 67.43 | 79.86 | 24.91 | 67.39 | 79.86 | ||
| Method | TER ( ) | TER ( ) |
| MT Baseline | 24.98 | 24.98 |
| Vanilla FT ( ) | 25.84 | 27.63 |
| (best) | 25.81 | 27.40 |
| (best) | 25.65 | 25.66 |
| (best) | 24.97 | 25.08 |
| Static | Entropy | PMT | |
| 0.0 | 25.84 | – | – |
| 0.1 | 25.81 | – | – |
| 0.3 | 25.66 | – | – |
| 0.5 | 25.65 | 25.81 | 25.79 |
| 1.0 | 25.00 | 25.81 | 25.69 |
| 2.0 | 24.98 | 25.81 | 25.65 |
| TER | vs MT | |
| MT Baseline | 59.19 | – |
| 0.0 | 57.16 | +2.03 |
| 0.1 | 56.99 | +2.20 |
| 0.3 | 57.12 | +2.07 |
| 0.5 | 57.03 | +2.16 |
| 0.7 | 56.75 | +2.44 |
| TER | vs MT | |
| MT Baseline | 59.19 | – |
| 5.0 | 77.37 | 18.18 |
| 3.0 | 71.24 | 12.05 |
| 2.0 | 66.05 | 6.87 |
| 1.0 | 61.10 | 1.91 |
| 0.5 | 58.87 | +0.31 |
| MT Baseline | 22.93 | ||
| Vanilla FT | 22.24 | ||
| 0.5 | 21.98 | 22.25 | 22.21 |
| 1.0 | 21.83 | 22.19 | 22.15 |
| 2.0 | 21.73 | 22.05 | 22.10 |
| 3.0 | 21.83 | 21.90 | 22.09 |
| TER | |
| MT Baseline | 20.57 |
| Vanilla FT | 21.77 |
| 0.5 | 24.24 |
| 1.0 | 23.34 |
| 2.0 | 21.46 |
| 3.0 | 20.89 |
| TER | vs MT | |
| MT Baseline | 47.54 | – |
| Vanilla FT | 50.90 | 3.36 |
| 0.5 | 53.42 | 5.87 |
| 1.0 | 51.08 | 3.54 |
| 2.0 | 48.16 | 0.62 |
| 3.0 | 47.72 | 0.18 |
| Domain | MT TER | FT TER | TER | Triplets |
| Wiki | 12.67 | 12.95 | 0.28 | 23,880 |
| News | 20.57 | 21.77 | 1.21 | 10,000 |
| Combined † | 19.07 | 18.96 | 0.11 | 8,794 |
| TER | vs MT | |
| MT Baseline | 7.93 | – |
| 0.0 | 7.91 | +0.02 |
| 0.5 | 9.17 | 1.24 |
| 1.0 | 8.32 | 0.39 |
| 2.0 | 8.25 | 0.33 |
| 2.5 | 8.12 | 0.19 |
| TER | vs MT | |
| MT Baseline | 14.89 | – |
| 0.0 | 14.88 | +0.01 |
| 0.5 | 15.01 | 0.12 |
| 1.0 | 14.71 | +0.19 |
| 2.0 | 14.45 | +0.45 |
| 2.5 | 14.45 | +0.44 |
| TER | vs MT | |
| MT Baseline | 24.30 | – |
| 0.0 | 24.99 | 0.68 |
| 0.5 | 25.93 | 1.63 |
| 1.0 | 24.57 | 0.27 |
| 2.0 | 24.09 | +0.21 |
| 2.5 | 24.58 | 0.27 |
| Dataset | System | TER | BLEU | TER |
| D2 (News) | MT Baseline | 7.93 | 89.25 | – |
| Vanilla FT | 7.91 | 89.56 | +0.02 | |
| 8.12 | 89.39 | 0.19 | ||
| D3 (Wiki) | MT Baseline | 14.89 | 79.11 | – |
| Vanilla FT | 14.88 | 78.95 | +0.01 | |
| 14.45 | 79.20 | +0.45 |
| Parameter | Gemma 1B | Gemma 4B | NLLB |
| Learning rate | 3e-5 | 3e-5 | 2e-4 |
| Scheduler | Linear | Linear | Linear |
| Warmup ratio | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Batch (eff.) | 64 | 16 4 | 48 1 |
| Max epochs | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Eval steps | 50 | 50 | 100 |
| Edit Type | Example (MT PE) |
| Stylistic (MT semantically correct): | |
| Loanword native | ස්පයිඩර් මකුළුවා ( “Spider” native term ) |
| Register shift | දනිමු දන්නවා ( literary spoken “know” ; shifting between diglossic forms de Silva (2026) ) |
| Word order (SVO SOV) | Clause reordering to Sinhala-preferred order |
| Retranslation | Complete rewrite, same meaning |
| Correction (actual MT error): | |
| Domain | Source (English) | Key Edit Type | TER |
| D1 (Lit.) | Spider replied, “Yes, I’ll take you on an adventure…” | Loanword: ස්පයිඩර් මකුළුවා (“Spider” native term) + verb formality | 27.3 |
| D1 (Lit.) | “I didn’t think,” she sobbed. | Mistranslation: කෑගැසුවාය (“screamed”) වැළපුණා ය (“sobbed”) | 33.3 |
| D1 (Lit.) | Thank you, Mrs. Goose. | Loanword: මිසිස් ගූස් පාත්ත මහත්මිය (English title native) | 66.7 |
| D1 (Lit.) | “Ahmed?” drowsily. | Morphological: නිදිමත නිදිමතින් (missing instrumental case -ින්) | 50.0 |
| MQM Category | Human | Copied | Fixed | Copy% |
| Accuracy | 59 | 48 | 0 | 81.4 |
| Fluency | 41 | 26 | 7 | 63.4 |
| Style | 82 | 56 | 1 | 68.3 |
| Retranslation | 17 | 12 | 0 | 70.6 |
| Total | 200 | 143 | 8 | 71.5 |
| Edit Type | Human | Model | Gap |
| Accuracy | |||
| mistranslation | 44 | 10 | 45 |
| addition | 6 | – | 6 |
| untranslated | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| polysemy_sense | 3 | – | 1 |
| omission | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Model Action Category | |||||
| Human | None | Acc. | Flu. | Sty. | Ret. |
| Accuracy | 48 | 5 | 4 | 2 | – |
| Fluency | 26 | – | 15 | – | – |
| Style | 56 | 6 | 19 | 1 | – |
| Retranslation | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | – |
| D2 | D3 | D1 | |
| News | Wiki | Lit. | |
| Human edit distribution (%) | |||
| Accuracy | 7.5 | 19.0 | 29.5 |
| Fluency | 68.0 | 33.0 | 20.5 |
| Style | 19.0 | 41.0 | 41.0 |
| Retranslation | 5.5 | 7.0 | 8.5 |
| Domain | Edit | Edits | per-edit | |
| rate | PE | TER | ||
| D1 Literature | 716 | 23.6 | 88.8 | 6.3 |
| D2 News | 1664 | 37.7 | 72.6 | 0.9 |
| D3 Wikipedia | 2184 | 41.6 | 80.6 | 1.1 |
| D5 (low-qual. MT) | 1292 | 79.8 | 98.4 | 3.2 |
| Example 1: Unnecessary Edit (MT PE, TER ref ) | |
| Source | “I must buy you.” |
| MT Output | “මම ඔබව මිලදී ගත යුතුයි.” |
| Human PE | “මම ඔබව මිලදී ගත යුතුයි.” (identical to MT) |
| Vanilla FT | “මම ඔබව මිලදී ගන්නවා .” (changed ගත යුතුයි “must buy” ගන්නවා “will buy”: unnecessary modality shift) |
| Constrained | “මම ඔබව මිලදී ගත යුතුයි.” (correctly preserved MT, TER ) |
| MT is correct. The model changes obligation to simple future at high confidence, altering the meaning. | |
| Field | Content | Label |
| Source | “I didn’t think,” she sobbed. | |
| MT | “මම හිතුවේ නැහැ,” ඇය කෑගැසුවාය . | |
| PE | “මම හිතුවේ නැහැ,” ඇය වැළපුණා ය . | |
| Diff | කෑගැසුවාය (screamed) වැළපුණා ය (sobbed) | ACCURACY |
| Source | Spider replied, “Yes…” | |
| MT | ස්පයිඩර් පිළිතුරු දුන්නේ… |
| Category | GPT (%) | Corrected (%) | Agree (%) | |
| Accuracy | 26 | 29 | 73 | 0.64 |
| Fluency | 26 | 27 | 77 | 0.72 |
| Style | 31 | 28 | 65 | 0.62 |
| Retranslation | 17 | 16 | 82 | 0.92 |
| Overall | 100 | 100 | 73 | 0.70 |
| GPT label | Acc. | Flu. | Sty. | Ret. |
| Human: Accuracy | 26 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Human: Fluency | 0 | 26 | 1 | 0 |
| Human: Style | 0 | 0 | 27 | 1 |
| Human: Retranslation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Dataset | TER | chrF++ | BLEU |
| D1 (monotonic) | +0.03 | +0.07 | +0.05 |
| D5 (U-shaped) | +3.98 | +0.97 | +2.58 |
| En-Mr (U-shaped) | +1.20 | +0.90 | +3.03 |
| Tag | Gold (%) | Predicted (%) | |
| none | 29.1 | 17.7 | 11.4 |
| minor | 20.9 | 0.1 | 20.8 |
| major | 50.0 | 82.1 | 32.1 |
| Tag accuracy | 53.9% | ||
| Method | TER | TER | Note | |
| MT Baseline | 24.98 | – | – | – |
| Vanilla FT | 25.84 | 0.86 | 0.02 | – |
| HSA (mean) | 25.58 | 0.60 | 0.26 | High |
| ELC (oracle) | 27.29 | 2.31 | – | Noise on none class |
| ELC (minor) | 25.88 | 0.90 | – | vanilla |
| CoT | 29.55 | 4.57 | – | 82% predict [major] |
| Anchor | Target | TER | ||
| Vanilla FT | – | – | 25.84 | – |
| Zero-scalar | 0.1 | 25.26 | +0.58 | |
| MT-vector | 0.001 | 25.73 | +0.11 | |
| Zero-vector | 0.001 | 25.69 | +0.15 |
| Algorithm 1: Constrained Decoding |
| Input: Model , MT tokens , type, , window , or |
| Output: Post-edited tokens |
| Initialize MT pointer |
| for do |
| Parameter | Search Range | Optimal |
| (all) | 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 | 2.5 |
| (entropy) | 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 | 2.0 |
| (probability) | 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 | 1.0 |
| (window) | 1, 2, 3 | 2 |
| Curve signature | What it means | Recommended action | Example |
| U-shaped: minimum at , dipping below MT | Net-positive edits survived training | Deploy the static constraint at that as a free inference-time gain (§ 6.3 ) | D5; English–Marathi; Gemma 4B on D1 (marginal) |
| Minimum at | The model is already net-positive without any constraint | Deploy the vanilla fine-tuned checkpoint directly | D2 (News) |
| Monotonic, reaching the MT baseline | No net-positive edits survived; copying is optimal | Copy MT for now; make the post-edits more consistent before training again | D1 (Literature) |
| Monotonic, plateauing above the MT baseline | Over-editing is too severe to undo at inference | Address data or MT quality before training again | NLLB-600M on D1 |
| QE Approach | Best AUROC | Note |
| LaBSE (pretrained) | 0.45 | Below chance |
| COMET-QE (pretrained) | 0.58 | Near chance |
| XLM-R regression | 0.745 | Best overall |
| XLM-R 3-class | 0.703 | F1 macro |
| XLM-R binary | 0.732 | Precision |
| XLM-R (train on test) | 0.707 | Cannot memorize |
| D1 (heterogeneous) | D5 (genuine errors) | ||||
| MQM Category | Mean grad norm | Mean grad norm | |||
| Accuracy | 58 | 1.58 | 32 | 2.68 | |
| Fluency | 41 | 1.46 | 19 | 3.60 | |
| Style | 82 | 1.21 | 119 | 1.53 | |
| Retranslation | 17 | 2.04 | 29 | 2.97 | |
| D1 (heterogeneous) | D5 (genuine errors) | |||||||
| Acc. | Flu. | Sty. | Ret. | Acc. | Flu. | Sty. | Ret. | |
| Accuracy | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.28 | 0.14 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Fluency | 0.01 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Style | 0.28 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1.00 | 0.05 |
| Retranslation | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.00 |
| Filtered | Random ctrl. | |
| MT Base. | 24.98 | 24.98 |
| 0.0 | 26.74 | 26.37 |
| 0.5 | 26.52 | 25.45 |
| 1.0 | 26.46 | 25.15 |
| 2.0 | 26.06 | 24.97 |
| 3.0 | 26.06 | 24.97 |
Low-Resource MT
Low-resource machine translation develops translation systems for languages with scarce parallel text, tools, or standardized evaluation.
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