Right Answer, Wrong Reason: Accuracy, Consistency, and Consensus Are Misleading Indicators of LLM Faithfulness in Clinical Decision Support

Closed-source large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT and Gemini, are increasingly consulted for medical advice, yet their explanations may appear plausible while failing to reflect the model's underlying reasoning process. This gap poses serious risks as patients and clinicians may trust coherent but misleading explanations. We conduct a systematic black-box evaluation of faithfulness in medical reasoning among three widely used closed-source LLMs. Our study consists of three perturbation-based probes: (1) causal ablation, testing whether stated chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning causally influences predictions; (2) positional bias, examining whether models create post-hoc justifications for answers driven by input positioning; and (3) hint injection, testing susceptibility to external suggestions. We complement these quantitative probes with a small-scale human evaluation of model responses to patient-style medical queries to examine concordance between physician assessments of explanation faithfulness and layperson perceptions of trustworthiness. We find that CoT reasoning steps often do not causally drive predictions, and models readily incorporate external hints without acknowledgment. In contrast, positional biases showed minimal impact in this setting. These results underscore that faithfulness, not just accuracy, must be central in evaluating LLMs for medicine, to ensure both public protection and safe clinical deployment.

Clinical LLM evaluation often emphasizes answer accuracy; however, accuracy alone does not test counterfactual consistency or demographic robustness. We evaluated six LLMs on 150 MedQA USMLE questions using two automated perturbation tests to assess their performance. The counterfactual validity (CFV) test asked each model to make a minimal, plausible clinical change that would make a different answer correct. The demographic robustness test added six demographic prefixes to the same vignette and compared the answers and explanations with a no demographic baseline. Of the 900 CFV attempts, 228 (25.3 %) were valid and 672 were invalid. Across 5,400 demographic comparisons, 1,097 answers were changed (20.3%). Automated judging identified 3,128 stereotype evidence flags, including 1,932 in the broad Other category. MedGemma 27B achieved the highest accuracy (87.1%) and CFV (63.3%), lowest answer change rate (16.0%), and low mean Explanation Demographic Dissonance (EDD) score (0.169). However, its accuracy still exceeded its CFV, indicating that correct answers do not guarantee reliable performance on the counterfactual validity task. OpenBioLLM had the highest answer change rate and EDD, whereas GLM had the highest stereotype flag rate. These findings show that accuracy, CFV, answer stability, EDD, and stereotype evidence capture different evaluation aspects. Because all judgments were automated and no clinician validation was available, the results support safety screening but do not establish clinical deployability of the model.

Large language models (LLMs) are powerful black-box systems, making it difficult to discern whether their answers reflect stable internal beliefs or superficial pattern matching. We identify cross-contextual consistency as an underutilized behavioral property of LLMs: a credible answer should remain stable when the same task is placed under topic-aligned, content-neutral contextual variation. Building on this intuition, we operationalize Cross-Contextual Consistency (C3) by comparing model generations under original and perturbed prompts. Across 26 models and six benchmarks spanning reasoning, factuality, and code generation, we find that answers with smaller cross-contextual shifts are more likely to be correct or factual. We demonstrate that C3 provides a complementary axis of evaluation and can serve as a benchmark usefulness diagnostic, identifying which portions of a benchmark remain informative even when aggregated scores are widely considered "saturate".