Inferring quantities of interest (QoI) from data is a central task in Science and Engineering. In such contexts, we often have access to both quantitative data and qualitative data. Quantitative data may be represented by noisy sensor measurements, simulation data, re-analysis data; qualitative data may be in the form of text descriptions of experimental setups, expected experiment outcomes, and human-perceived system behaviours. The task we address in this paper is the following. Given a training set of paired qualitative text and quantitative QoI data, we learn to exploit the inherent correlation between the two modalities to learn a highly informative data-driven natural-language-conditional Bayesian prior, such that when presented with a new physical system, we can coherently combine (i) the training dataset, (ii) qualitative text describing the new system, and (iii) a small number of noisy sensor readings from that new system, to perform inference and uncertainty quantification (UQ) over the QoI. To achieve this task, we develop two parallel approaches, one uses conditional diffusion and the other conditional autoencoders, and compare both against classical Bayesian methodology, unconditional generative models and deterministic supervised methods. Each approach has specific strengths and tradeoffs; conditional autoencoder offers theoretical tractability, allows for fast posterior sampling, and provides better-calibrated UQ, whereas conditional diffusion is explored for greater expressiveness and capturing complex posteriors with irregular QoI fields. The approach is tested on the steady-state heat equation, damped Helmholtz equation, and UK weather reanalysis data.
Figures & tables
Figure 1
Figure 1: Posterior marginals of steady-state heat equation at four unobserved query locations for nobs=4 . Dashed vertical lines denote the ground truth at four query points.
nobs=4
nobs=8
Cost
Model
NMSE (×10−3)
%C68
%C95
NMSE (×10−3)
%C68
%C95
Param(M)
Train(hr)
Pred(s)
GP
178.87±
103.15
71.7
(14.8)
93.6
( 5.5)
97.03±
59.79
64.6
(13.8)
89.7
( 7.5)
–
–
0.0004
Uncon Supervised
54.66±
203.76
–
–
4.87±
12.89
–
–
5.13
1.91
0.0003
Cond Supervised
9.52±
17.02
–
–
3.54±
6.18
–
–
5.13
0.93
0.0003
Uncon AE
46.45±
132.21
61.5
(22.4)
88.7
(12.0)
4.85±
15.95
67.6
(17.8)
92.6
( 8.5)
9.48
3.63
28.51
Cond AE
6.13±
11.70
61.6
(23.4)
88.2
( 8.2)
1.40±
3.01
62.5
(20.8)
88.1
( 7.9)
9.87
2.40
10.25
Table 1: Inference results on the steady-state heat equation at nobs={4,8} . We report NMSE of posterior mean (with quartiles in Appendix Table 6 ), and coverages of the ground truth by the centered 68% and 95% posterior intervals (target values: 68% and 95% ). NMSE entries are mean ± 1 std across 200 test fields; coverages report the mean, values in parentheses are the mean absolute difference from the target coverage (smaller is better). Pred. is the mean per-field inference time.
Figure 2: Performance of posterior calibration. We plot calibration curves (observed coverage over target central coverage) for three experiments, where the diagonal represents perfect calibration, with more details about calibration curve calculation in Appendix F .
Figure 3: Inference results of one Helmholtz test system (Real part) at nobs=6 .
nobs=6
nobs=10
Cost
Model
NMSE (×10−2)
%C68
%C95
NMSE (×10−2)
%C68
%C95
Param(M)
Train(hr)
Pred(s)
GP
86.74±
9.20
83.3
(23.0)
94.0
( 7.4)
77.12±
11.96
82.3
(23.1)
93.6
( 7.7)
–
–
0.005
Uncon Supervised
25.93±
23.18
–
–
10.17±
7.68
–
–
8.22
13.64
0.002
Cond Supervised
19.77±
25.27
–
–
10.84±
16.48
–
–
8.32
10.91
0.002
Uncon AE
66.61±
338.05
45.9
(28.7)
68.6
(28.3)
16.07±
30.13
46.1
(26.9)
68.4
(28.5)
19.71
19.37
145.25
Cond AE
7.15±
17.18
71.4
(13.6)
94.5
( 5.5)
3.16±
7.25
69.7
(11.8)
93.8
( 5.4)
20.66
15.91
43.90
Table 2: Inference results on 100 Helmholtz test fields, more details in Appendix Tables 9 and 10 .
Figure 4: Example of a 3-channel weather data slice with corresponding text description. Green boxes mark the regions referenced in the text, and grey dashed boxes mark available land regions.
Figure 5: Inference results of one UK weather test system ( v ) with nobs=8 .
nobs=8
nobs=12
Cost
Model
NMSE (×10−2)
%C68
%C95
NMSE (×10−2)
%C68
%C95
Params(M)
Train(hr)
Pred.(s)
GP
12.12±
16.06
68.3
( 8.5)
91.7
( 5.0)
10.16±
13.80
69.7
( 8.1)
92.1
( 4.6)
–
–
0.002
Uncon Supervised
7.46±
11.38
–
–
6.22±
10.47
–
–
8.23
22.34
0.002
Cond Supervised
6.78±
9.95
–
–
5.89±
8.81
–
–
8.32
14.89
0.002
Uncon AE
8.18±
11.55
67.5
( 6.5)
93.6
( 3.3)
6.90±
10.50
65.8
( 5.9)
92.3
( 3.6)
16.92
14.08
47.02
Cond AE
6.93±
9.81
65.9
( 5.6)
92.5
( 3.5)
6.12±
9.58
63.8
( 6.6)
90.9
( 4.5)
17.71
15.73
47.08
Table 3: Inference results on 100 UK weather test fields, more details in Appendix Tables 12 and 13 .
Appendix figures & tables34 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Symbol
Description
Example
u∈U
Quantity of Interest (QoI)
Heat distribution over the physical domain
θ∈Θ
Human-perceivable quantity related to u
The left boundary condition
s∈S
Qualitative data: description of θ
"the left boundary is hot"
τ∈T
Euclidean description of s
Text encoding of "the left boundary is hot"
y∈Rdy
Quantitative data: incomplete/indirect measurements of u
Sparse sensor measurements of heat on domain
Appendix
Table 4: Symbols and concepts.
Figure 6: Ground truth fields and Voronoi inputs to the supervised model at nobs={4,8} .
Figure 7: Latent histograms across all dimensions over the test set in three experiments, compared with the ideal Qz=N(0,I) .
Figure 8: Examples of heat fields with corresponding BC values and text descriptions.
Figure 9: Prior samples generated given text. The leftmost panel shows the ground-truth field together with the corresponding text. Each of the four rows shows three prior samples drawn using four models, the text is supplied to conditional models and not provided to unconditional ones.
Figure 10: Posterior reconstructions of one heat equation test system at nobs=4 (same system as in Figure 1 ). Each row indicates posterior mean, posterior standard deviation, ∣ error ∣ of the mean respectively. NMSE of posterior mean of each model is reported as well.
Table 5: Full inference results on the heat equation test set with nobs varying from 2 to 10. This table is the extended version of Table 1 , and also presents the diffusion inference results obtained via the standard DPS scheme (last two rows). Continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is also reported, with details in Appendix F .
Figure 11: Per-system coverage over 200 steady-state heat equation test systems at nobs=4 . Each panel shows the distribution of coverages across all systems, i.e. the percentage of systems falling in each coverage bin.
Figure 12: NMSE performance and text gain at different nobs for steady-state heat equation. (a) NMSE across 200 test systems: median (solid), mean (dashed), and 25th–75th percentile bands, see Table 6 for exact values. (b) Per-system relative gain from text conditioning, log2(NMSEuncon/NMSEcond) , with median and interquartile bands. Zero values indicate that the text adds nothing beyond the observations.
nobs=2
nobs=4
nobs=6
nobs=8
nobs=10
Model NMSE (×10−3)
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Uncon AE
50.64
158.02
287.87
1.31
5.20
23.29
0.58
1.60
4.65
0.41
0.83
2.19
0.29
0.69
1.46
Cond AE
2.02
5.96
17.10
0.52
1.59
5.45
0.30
0.72
2.12
0.18
0.50
1.12
0.16
0.38
0.91
Uncon Diffusion
60.89
159.12
312.58
0.73
2.99
26.18
0.27
0.72
2.46
0.15
0.40
1.06
0.14
0.27
0.75
Cond Diffusion
1.70
5.08
13.97
0.44
1.33
4.87
0.25
0.66
1.93
0.18
0.44
0.96
0.13
0.32
0.74
Appendix
Table 6: Quartiles of per-system NMSE across 200 heat-equation test systems. Q25 , median and Q75 over the same 200 test systems across different nobs are shown.
nobs=2
nobs=4
nobs=6
nobs=8
nobs=10
Model
ESSmin
ESSmean
ESSmin
ESSmean
ESSmin
ESSmean
ESSmin
ESSmean
ESSmin
ESSmean
Uncon AE
53.7
116.2
62.0
124.1
64.6
127.0
65.6
128.4
63.9
124.0
Cond AE
102.9
191.7
100.5
190.2
100.4
188.7
99.7
186.2
100.8
193.4
Appendix
Table 7: Effective sample size (ESS) of NUTS on the heat equation, averaged over the 200 test systems. This table reports ESSmin and ESSmean , the minimum and the mean over the 16 -dimensional latent vector of M=200 posterior samples.
Figure 13: Posterior inference of one steady-state heat equation test system as the number of observation points increases. The leftmost panel shows the ground truth field together with the text description. Columns give nobs={2,4,6,8,10} with nested observation sets. NMSE is also provided at the bottom of each field.
Figure 14: Examples of Helmholtz fields with forcing fields, related parameters and descriptions.
Forcing magnitude A
Damping γ
Radial position ∥c∥2
Level
Range
Level
Range
Level
Range
faint
1.00–2.15
very light
0.020–0.036
centre
0.00–0.25
moderate
2.15–4.64
light
0.036–0.063
mid
0.25–0.55
strong
4.64–10.0
moderate
0.063–0.113
rim
0.55–0.80
heavy
0.113–0.200
Appendix
Table 8: Binning of the Helmholtz parameters for text generation. Only the bin labels are passed to the language model and the numerical values are never shown.
Figure 15: Prior samples generated from four models (with text provided to conditional models).
Figure 16: Posterior marginals of one Helmholtz equation test system (Real part) (same system as in Figure 3 ) at four unobserved query locations when nobs=6 .
Table 9: Full inference table on the Helmholtz equation test set. This table extends Table 2 with nobs between 4 and 12 over 100 test fields.
Figure 17: Per-system coverages over 100 Helmholtz test systems at nobs=6.
Figure 18: NMSE performance and text gain at different nobs for Helmholtz equation. (a) NMSE across 100 test systems: median (solid), mean (dashed), and 25th–75th percentile bands, see Table 10 for exact values. (b) Per-system relative gain from text conditioning, log2(NMSEuncon/NMSEcond) , with median and interquartile bands.
nobs=4
nobs=6
nobs=8
nobs=10
nobs=12
Model NMSE (×10−2)
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Uncon AE
6.98
52.42
118.06
1.36
6.62
44.52
0.91
4.04
22.46
0.78
2.65
17.39
0.55
2.14
9.19
Cond AE
0.99
4.55
18.83
0.46
1.50
5.11
0.35
1.14
4.41
0.31
0.80
2.99
0.25
0.60
2.26
Uncon Diffusion
21.18
48.36
66.97
4.16
13.37
36.19
0.66
3.42
11.01
0.18
1.37
6.66
0.09
0.54
2.40
Cond Diffusion
1.78
7.79
29.61
0.62
2.10
6.79
0.34
0.94
4.86
0.21
0.70
2.91
0.12
0.48
2.39
Appendix
Table 10: Quartiles of per-system NMSE across 100 Helmholtz test systems at different nobs .
Figure 19: Posterior inference of one Helmholtz equation test system (Imaginary part) as the number of observation points increases.
Figure 20: Posterior inference of one Helmholtz equation test system (Real part) as the number of observation points increases.
Figure 21: Posterior marginals of one UK weather test system ( v ) (same system as in Figure 5 ) at four unobserved query locations when nobs=8 .
Temperature (°C)
Wind speed (m s -1 )
Level
Range
Level
Range
freezing
<3
calm
<2.2
cold
2 – 6
light
1.8 – 4.0
chilly
5 – 9
moderate
3.5 – 5.5
cool
8 – 12
breezy
5.0 – 7.5
mild
11 – 15
strong
>7.0
Appendix
Table 11: Binning of the regional averages for text generation in UK weather dataset. Bands overlap at their edges: a value falling in two bands is described by one of them, chosen at random.
nobs=4
nobs=6
nobs=8
Model
NMSE ↓(×10−2)
CRPS ↓(×10−2)
%C68
%C95
NMSE ↓(×10−2)
CRPS ↓(×10−2)
%C68
%C95
NMSE ↓(×10−2)
CRPS ↓(×10−2)
%C68
%C95
GP
15.05±
19.33
18.16±
11.44
70.0
( 9.5)
92.6
( 4.7)
13.10±
16.83
16.71±
10.37
71.0
( 9.4)
93.0
( 4.3)
12.12±
16.06
15.91±
10.12
68.3
( 8.5)
91.7
( 5.0)
Uncon Supervised
10.81±
14.02
–
–
–
8.76±
11.89
–
–
–
7.46±
11.38
–
–
–
Cond Supervised
8.96±
12.98
–
–
–
7.51±
10.54
–
–
–
6.78±
9.95
–
–
–
Uncon AE
11.30±
15.16
15.21±
9.38
69.5
( 8.0)
94.6
( 3.5)
9.28±
12.43
13.57±
8.50
68.6
( 7.3)
94.3
( 3.2)
8.18±
11.55
12.58±
8.02
67.5
( 6.5)
93.6
( 3.3)
Cond AE
9.27±
13.45
13.70±
8.67
66.3
( 6.7)
92.6
( 3.9)
7.68±
10.44
12.45±
7.64
66.4
( 6.0)
92.8
( 3.4)
6.93±
9.81
11.68±
7.37
65.9
( 5.6)
92.5
( 3.5)
Appendix
Table 12: Full inference results on 100 UK weather test systems, which is an extension of Table 3 .
Figure 22: Per-system coverage over 100 Weather test fields with nobs=8 .
Figure 23: Posterior reconstructions of one UK Weather test system ( T ) when nobs=8 .
Figure 24: Posterior marginals of one UK weather test system ( T ) (same system as in Figure 23 ) at four unobserved query locations when nobs=8 .
Figure 25: Posterior reconstructions of one UK Weather test system ( T ) when nobs=8 .
Figure 26: Posterior marginals of one UK weather system ( T ) (same system as in Figure 25 ) at four unobserved query locations when nobs=8 .
Figure 27: NMSE performance at different nobs for UK Weather data. (a) NMSE across 100 test systems: median (solid), mean (dashed), and 25th–75th percentile bands, see Table 13 for exact values. (b) Per-system relative gain from text conditioning, log2(NMSEuncon/NMSEcond) , with median and interquartile bands.
nobs=4
nobs=6
nobs=8
nobs=10
nobs=12
nobs=14
Model NMSE (×10−2)
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Q25
Median
Q75
Uncon AE
2.52
4.74
13.58
1.79
3.27
11.32
1.71
2.75
8.53
1.54
2.49
7.45
1.43
2.36
7.25
1.41
2.43
6.23
Cond AE
2.04
3.56
9.45
1.66
3.21
8.57
1.46
2.63
7.49
1.40
2.32
7.40
1.34
2.36
7.29
1.32
2.31
6.11
Uncon Diffusion
2.49
4.39
11.91
1.74
3.29
9.42
1.43
2.50
7.09
1.31
2.32
6.20
1.18
2.19
5.88
1.13
2.06
5.77
Cond Diffusion
1.84
3.70
9.15
1.45
2.80
7.85
1.30
2.28
6.99
1.20
2.26
6.25
1.09
1.99
6.03
1.05
1.81
6.07
Appendix
Table 13: Quartiles of per-system NMSE across 100 UK weather slices.
Figure 28: Mean of per-system text gain from conditioning for UK weather test set . The figure plots the text gain log2(NMSEuncon/NMSEcond) , averaged over 100 test systems, inside the text-described regions (solid) and outside them (dashed).
Model
NMSE (×10−2)
%C68
%C95
Uncon Supervised
5.95 ± 5.31
–
–
Cond Supervised
5.11 ± 4.36
–
–
Uncon AE
5.22 ± 4.86
68.9 (4.6)
94.0 (2.3)
Cond AE
4.41 ± 4.01
65.9 (5.6)
92.3 (3.6)
Uncon Diffusion
5.04 ± 4.72
56.7 (11.6)
86.3 (9.0)
Cond Diffusion
4.20 ± 3.70
57.2 (11.5)
86.7 (8.5)
Appendix
Table 14: Ablation on a different observation operator of the UK weather experiment. Temperature is measured at 8 locations and the two wind components at 8 different locations, which is a sensor layout the supervised models were not trained on. Results are over 20 test systems.