Native Association: Confidence-Aware Human Perception in the Wild with a Foundation VLM

Video understanding is usually benchmarked on curated, single-actor, or professionally filmed clips, and a strong score there is routinely read as evidence a model is robust enough for deployment. Amateur team sport is a useful, largely untested place to check that assumption: over eight million students played a school sport in the United States in 2024-25 alone, almost none of it filmed by more than a single fixed camera, with several candidate actors crowded into frame and no operator or second angle to fall back on. Using volleyball as a test case, we ask whether strong performance on general video and world-model benchmarks translates into reliable, per-player attribution once footage is this chaotic, turning footage into statistics through a chain of tasks from finding play boundaries to naming who did what. We evaluate four approaches (prompting and agentic reasoning over frontier vision-language models, classical computer vision with small trained specialists, self-supervised video world models, and manual annotation) at every stage, on 66 amateur matches with 46,648 human-labelled contacts, filmed under conditions no published benchmark uses. No single paradigm wins every stage, and static, single-frame computer vision is not competitive at any stage involving motion or identity. A prompted model segments matches well, yet a far smaller trained model beats it at spotting contacts for a fraction of the cost, and the sport's own rules recover rally outcomes the pixels cannot. Identity is where every automated approach struggles: a jersey number is a static fact temporal reasoning cannot recover if never visible, unlike sporting action, a repeated motor pattern a temporal model can exploit, which is why holistic reasoning improves event detection while identity stays unchanged. We close with where each approach earns its cost, and what transfers beyond volleyball to amateur sport.

Can a Video Large Language Model (Video-LLM) follow one person through a long video, keeping track of who they are well enough to report, in order, how their outfit changes across a full TV episode? Benchmarks increasingly score this kind of task, and the strongest open-source 7--8B models now reach 37--38% on InfiniBench's global appearance task, which asks exactly that. But does that score come from tracking the named character, or from something easier? We test this with a nine-condition diagnostic protocol applied to three architecturally distinct open-source Video-LLMs, with Gemini2.5Flash as a frontier reference, and find the accuracy does not come from character tracking. When we change the character named in the question to a different cast member, leaving the video and answer options untouched, the models change their answer only 4--31% of the time, so they are largely ignoring who the question asks about. Breaking that test down by the gender of the swapped name shows why: the models react more when the name is changed to a different-gender character than to a same-gender one (a 13--28 point gap), picking up coarse gender cues but unable to tell same-gender individuals apart. This shallow processing surfaces again when we drop the multiple-choice options and ask the same questions open-endedly: open-source accuracy drops 18--25 points, with none of 151 answers fully correct, versus a 12-point drop for Gemini. Further checks rule out the obvious innocent explanations, adding subtitles, using the most informative frames, or doubling the number of frames all leave character tracking unimproved, so the bottleneck is not how much video the model sees but how it ties that video to the person the question names. We release a diagnostic toolkit for auditing what such benchmark scores actually measure.

Identity recognition (e.g., person, animal re-identification) has traditionally relied heavily on static appearance cues. Yet motion--consistent, individual-specific dynamics--can provide a complementary and potentially more robust signature, especially when appearance is weak or variable. This raises a fundamental question: when identity-specific motion cues are clearly present, to what extent do modern video models use them for recognition? To investigate this question, we conduct a systematic diagnostic study and introduce BALLER120, a controlled benchmark of 120 professional basketball players performing free-throws. By focusing on the same multi-phase action across individuals, BALLER120 reduces action-level variation and identity-correlated acquisition biases, enabling fine-grained analysis of identity-specific kinematic patterns. We find that modern video models can predict identity accurately from RGB videos, but often rely on static appearance cues such as faces and jersey regions, even when informative motion cues are available. Strikingly, when appearance is suppressed through silhouette-only or skeleton-only inputs, the same model architectures shift toward motion micro-patterns (e.g., foot placement and elbow bending). Despite containing less visual information, appearance-suppressed representations achieve competitive accuracy and stronger robustness to appearance shifts. Our qualitative analyses further show that appearance-suppressed models attend to distinctive motion patterns across individuals. Overall, our study demonstrates that identity-specific motion signatures are present, informative, and learnable, but modern video models may overlook them in favor of easier static shortcuts unless appearance cues are explicitly suppressed.