The Price of Peeking: Anytime-Valid Leakage Detection on ML-KEM EM Traces

Data leakage -- contamination of a model with information unavailable at baseline -- is the dominant reproducibility failure in machine-learning-based science, yet detection tools require training code, external data, or domain expertise. None operates on the artifact an auditor most often holds: the model's output. We ask what can be decided about leakage from predictions and outcomes alone. We give a decision-theoretic framework in which leakage diagnostics are functionals of the predicted-risk/outcome law, parameterized by a threshold-weighting linked to proper scoring rules and decision-curve analysis. We prove a sharp impossibility: a recalibrated leak matching an honest model's calibration and discrimination is indistinguishable from honest performance by \emph{any} function of the predictions, so the broad class is detectable only against an externally supplied ceiling on achievable discrimination. We then prove what leakage cannot hide: a near-deterministic subgroup -- the signature of a near-label leak -- produces a sustained unit-purity head that no legitimate predictor of a non-deterministic outcome can manufacture, yielding a prior-free test. These results organize leakage into a trichotomy -- miscalibrated, broad-calibrated, and deterministic -- each with a matched detector and failure mode. We validate on UK Biobank using time-windowed comorbidity leakage with known, graded severity, measuring a detection floor of $Δ\cstar \approx 0.007$ on this endpoint, below which residual leakage is undetectable from output and too small to alter conclusions. The numerical floor is cohort- and endpoint-specific; the structural lesson is general: output-only detection fails where residual leakage is indistinguishable from an honestly stronger predictor. The test returns a verdict on a prediction vector in under a second on commodity hardware.

Today, machine learning is widely applied in sensitive, security-related, and financially lucrative applications. Model extraction attacks undermine current business models where a model owner sells model access, e.g., via MLaaS APIs. Additionally, stolen models can enable powerful white-box attacks, facilitating privacy attacks on sensitive training data, and model evasion. In this paper, we focus on Decision Trees (DT), which are widely deployed in practice. Existing black-box extraction attacks for DTs are either query-intensive, make strong assumptions about the DT structure, or rely on rich API information. To limit attacks to the black-box setting, CPU vendors introduced Trusted Execution Environments (TEE) that use hardware-mechanisms to isolate workloads from external parties, e.g., MLaaS providers. We introduce TrEEStealer, a high-fidelity extraction attack for stealing TEE-protected DTs. TrEEStealer exploits TEE-specific side-channels to steal DTs efficiently and without strong assumptions about the API output or DT structure. The extraction efficacy stems from a novel algorithm that maximizes the information derived from each query by coupling Control-Flow Information (CFI) with passive information tracking. We use two primitives to acquire CFI: for AMD SEV, we follow previous work using the SEV-Step framework and performance counters. For Intel SGX, we reproduce prior findings on current Xeon 6 CPUs and construct a new primitive to efficiently extract the branch history of inference runs through the Branch-History-Register. We found corresponding vulnerabilities in three popular libraries: OpenCV, mlpack, and emlearn. We show that TrEEStealer achieves superior efficiency and extraction fidelity compared to prior attacks. Our work establishes a new state-of-the-art for DT extraction and confirms that TEEs fail to protect against control-flow leakage.

Electromagnetic (EM) side-channel analysis traditionally assumes a stationary, close-proximity probe - a threat model that underestimates aerial adversaries. TriSweep is a simulation framework that designs and evaluates a four-drone swarm architecture for autonomous standoff EM-SCA of embedded microcontrollers at 0.25-1.5 m. Three spatially specialized collector drones - Anchor (full-spectrum), Mask Probe (mask-register loading leakage), and Cipher Probe (masked SubBytes output leakage) - feed a stationary Accumulator drone that performs coherent combining (+4.8 dB SNR gain) and second-order mask cancellation via a centered product of the two spatially separated leakage streams. Evaluated against three real ANSSI ASCAD datasets (ATmega8515 masked AES-128 and 50/100-sample desynchronized variants), the framework achieves a simulated key rank of 18 +/- 1.7 (five-seed) at 0.25 m on the primary masked dataset. Profiling-trace cross-correlation alignment reduces single-drone rank from 89 to 21 on the 100-sample-jitter variant, demonstrating compensation for drone hover vibration. A two-channel CNN in the Accumulator converges to a loss of 0.454 (vs. random baseline 5.545) and improves rank on desynchronized datasets. No physical hardware has been fabricated; prototype construction is the planned next step.