Risk-Averse Online POMDP Planning via CVaR of the Immediate Cost with Performance Guarantees

Risk-averse decision-making under uncertainty in partially observable domains is a central challenge in artificial intelligence and is essential for developing reliable autonomous agents. The formal framework for such problems is the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), where risk sensitivity is introduced through a risk measure applied to the value function, with Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) being a particularly significant criterion. However, solving POMDPs is computationally intractable in general, and approximate methods rely on computationally expensive simulations of future agent trajectories. This work introduces a theoretical framework for accelerating CVaR value function evaluation in POMDPs with formal performance guarantees. We derive new bounds on the CVaR of a random variable X using an auxiliary random variable Y, under assumptions relating their cumulative distribution and density functions; these bounds yield interpretable concentration inequalities and converge as the distributional discrepancy vanishes. Building on this, we establish upper and lower bounds on the CVaR value function computable from a simplified belief-MDP, accommodating general simplifications of the transition dynamics. We develop estimators for these bounds within a particle-belief MDP framework with probabilistic guarantees, and employ them for acceleration via action elimination: actions whose bounds indicate suboptimality under the simplified model are safely discarded while ensuring consistency with the original POMDP. Empirical evaluation across multiple POMDP domains confirms that the bounds reliably separate safe from dangerous policies while achieving substantial computational speedups under the simplified model.

We present POMDPPlanners, an open-source Python package for empirical evaluation of Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) planning algorithms. The package integrates state-of-the-art planning algorithms, a suite of benchmark environments with safety-critical variants, automated hyperparameter optimization via Optuna, persistent caching with failure recovery, and configurable parallel simulation -- reducing the overhead of extensive simulation studies. POMDPPlanners is designed to enable scalable, reproducible research on decision-making under uncertainty, with particular emphasis on risk-sensitive settings where standard toolkits fall short.

Tail-end risk measures such as static conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used in safety-critical applications to prevent rare, yet catastrophic events. Unlike risk-neutral objectives, the static CVaR of the return depends on entire trajectories without admitting a recursive Bellman decomposition in the underlying Markov decision process. A classical resolution relies on state augmentation with a continuous variable. However, unless restricted to a specialized class of admissible value functions, this formulation induces sparse rewards and degenerate fixed points. In this work, we propose a novel formulation of the static CVaR objective based on augmentation. Our alternative approach leads to a Bellman operator with: (1) dense per-step rewards; (2) contracting properties on the full space of bounded value functions. Building on this theoretical foundation, we develop risk-averse value iteration and model-free Q-learning algorithms that rely on discretized augmented states. We further provide convergence guarantees and approximation error bounds due to discretization. Empirical results demonstrate that our algorithms successfully learn CVaR-sensitive policies and achieve effective performance-safety trade-offs.