Replication Failure and Trivial Baselines in Road-Level Crash Prediction

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are routinely employed for spatiotemporal forecasting, yet their performance across widely used benchmark datasets is inconsistent. Here, we perform an audit of dataset properties and baseline models to assess the quality of the benchmarks, and the robustness of the conclusions drawn from them. Using classical statistical tools, we characterise spatiotemporal lagged dependencies in benchmarks, and examine how temporal differencing changes these relationships and affects model rankings. Motivated by this, we re-evaluate temporal linear baselines, significantly reducing the apparent gains from GNNs on several benchmarks, and surpassing GNNs on others. Suspecting that GNNs struggle to extract linear, node-wise signals, we find that supplying them with autoregressive residuals improves their performance particularly on non-traffic benchmarks. Finally, controlled synthetic experiments reveal that GNNs are sensitive to heterogeneity in temporal dynamics and spatial graph interactions. Together, our findings demonstrate that baseline specification, data pre-processing and system heterogeneity shape the interpretations drawn from benchmark rankings, informing the design and robust evaluation of GNNs.

Extreme rainfall can rapidly degrade road-network functionality (RNF), disrupting emergency mobility, accessibility, evacuation, logistics, and infrastructure restoration. Existing flood-transportation impact models are often difficult to deploy across regions because they rely on local calibration, intensive simulation workflows or target-region retraining. This study proposes G-R2R, a transferable spatiotemporal graph-learning framework that reframes rainfall-induced road-network disruption as a region-conditioned, topology-flexible graph forecasting problem for unseen transportation networks. The framework integrates ego-centered subgraph sampling, terrain-conditioned graph representation, region-conditioned dual-level static encoding, and dynamic rainfall-network feature learning. Static geographic and infrastructure attributes are fused with rainfall forcing and recent RNF states to forecast node-level RNF across heterogeneous road networks. G-R2R is evaluated using simulation-derived RNF sequences from ten flood-prone regions in Wenzhou, China, under unseen-region testing protocols. It outperforms representative forecasting baselines, achieving a stabilized MAPE of 2.33% and $R^2$ of 0.855 under the fixed unseen-region benchmark. Leave-one-area-out evaluation yields stabilized MAPE values of 2.30%-3.54%. Ablation analysis supports the contributions of the terrain-conditioned graph representation and dual-level static encoding. A historical-event replay of Typhoon Fitow further shows that G-R2R reproduces principal temporal trajectories and node-level spatial patterns of the simulation-derived RNF reference under observed rainfall forcing without target-region retraining. These results support rapid and transferable node-level RNF forecasting across the regional road-network domains represented in this study.

Nonlinear finite element crash simulations are accurate but computationally expensive, limiting their use in iterative design optimisation. Machine-learning surrogate models based on graph neural networks (GNNs) offer a faster alternative. Message-passing GNNs are widely used for mesh simulation, and their shared node and edge update functions are relatively generalisable across varying graph structures. By contrast, non-shareable edge-specific aggregation layers can capture nonlinear relationships more accurately but usually require fixed graph connectivity, which limits generalisability. This paper presents Mask-Morph Graph U-Net (MMGUNet), a practical approach to addressing the limitation of hierarchical Graph U-Net architectures that use edge-specific downsampling and upsampling layers. Fixed coarse graph connectivity is required for edge-specific layers. To retain this while improving spatial correspondence, the proposed method morphs the coarsened graph hierarchy to each input mesh using feature-aligned barycentric parameterisation before constructing cross-graph edges. It further applies node masking during supervised pretraining, followed by parameter-efficient fine-tuning in which high-parameter edge-specific layers are frozen. The proposed approach is evaluated in in-distribution, out-of-distribution, and cross-component transfer settings using mean Euclidean distance and maximum intrusion percentage error. Results show that coarse-graph morphing improves test accuracy relative to a fixed-coarse-graph baseline, while masked supervised pretraining reduces the train-test discrepancy and improves data efficiency during transfer. The proposed model also achieves lower prediction error compared with external baselines. These results demonstrate a practical route toward reusable, data-efficient mesh-based surrogate modelling for crashworthiness design exploration.