An Efficient Machine Learning Approach for Degradation Forecasting in AEM Water Electrolysis

Green hydrogen plays an essential role in decarbonization, with capacity projected to scale to 560 GW by 2030 (vs. 1.39 GW in 2023) in net-zero settings. Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis is one of the most promising technology routes to green hydrogen production, and real-time system health monitoring of PEM electrolyzers is essential for their scalable deployment. In lab settings, performance degradation can be characterized through electrochemical testing protocols by periodic pauses of normal operation. Such interruption is not practical for full-scale stack deployments, limiting system operators' ability to make real-time assessments of state-of-health (SoH). We present a machine learning (ML) framework that performs virtual electrochemical characterization during normal operation. The method uses an encoder-decoder transformer, conditioned on operational data, to reconstruct characterization outputs, focusing here on polarization curves. Inspired by patch-based sequence tokenization, we segment the inputs into patches and encode them to form meaningful tokens, which substantially improves learning efficiency. Across four longitudinal runs, lasting up to 478 hours on different test cells and loading cycles, the model accurately reconstructed polarization curves and achieved 10x reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to a vanilla transformer. This proof-of-concept demonstrates that ML models can enable continuous performance monitoring for PEM electrolyzers and that the encoder captures meaningful latent representations of SoH, opening up opportunities to derive interpretable indicators in future work.

Early battery degradation trajectory forecasting (BDTF), which predicts the full-life state-of-health trajectory from early operational data, is critical for battery optimization, manufacturing, and deployment. Battery degradation data exhibit two key characteristics. First, degradation data present a multi-level structure, including regularities shared within aging conditions and trajectory patterns shared across batteries. Second, degradation-related variations in voltage-current profiles are often localized to specific state of charge (SOC) intervals. Existing approaches often fail to explicitly model these characteristics. To bridge this gap, we propose BatteryMFormer, a multi-level Transformer for early BDTF. BatteryMFormer integrates (1) an aging-condition-aware decoder that injects aging-condition priors via aging-condition-informed queries and aging-condition-aware attention, (2) a meta degradation pattern memory that learns and retrieves trajectory prototypes to guide long-horizon forecasting, and (3) a dual-view encoder that jointly captures temporal dynamics and SOC-localized variations from voltage and current time series. Extensive experiments on four battery domains show that BatteryMFormer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, marking a significant step toward reliable BDTF. Our code is available at https://github.com/Ruifeng-Tan/BatteryMFormer.

Reliable early detection of lithium-ion battery degradation requires health indicators that are physically interpretable and computable from routine cycler telemetry without access to the degradation region. We introduce \textsc{CausalHealth}, a framework that applies causal graph discovery and $k$-nearest-neighbour transfer entropy to per-cycle voltage, current, temperature, and resistance time series, and organises twelve resulting anomaly scores into three signal-class bundles (Magnitude-shift, Predictive-residual, Complexity-entropy) -- with Isolation Forest reported separately as it falls below the bundle reliability threshold -- to characterise detection sensitivity across ten commissioning fractions (5--30,%). The Magnitude-shift class achieves 100,% detection across all seven tested cells spanning LFP (MIT--Stanford MATR) and LCO (NASA PCoE, CALCE CS2) chemistries, with a lead time of up to 402 cycles before conventional capacity-threshold failure on gradual-fade cells. A Reliability-Weighted Master Health Index (RWMHI) -- a cross-bundle fusion of five high-reliability detectors weighted by inverse coefficient of variation -- improves lead time by 15--52 cycles over the class median on long-lived cells while maintaining 100,% detection. Validation against electrochemical impedance spectroscopy on an NMC prismatic cell provides independent physical grounding: transfer entropy $\mathrm{TE}(R \!\to\! V)$ correlates with charge-transfer resistance $R_{\mathrm{ct}}$ (pooled $r = +0.990$; temperature-controlled partial $r = +0.898$), and an Arrhenius analysis of both quantities yields an activation energy consistent with published NMC charge-transfer kinetics. These results are evaluated on seven cells across three benchmark datasets.