DualCast: A Dual-Path Language Model for Bimodal Financial Time-Series Forecasting

This technical report presents EXAONE Forecast for Finance (EXAONE Finance), a financial time series (TS) foundation model (TSFM) tailored to financial forecasting. Recent TSFMs achieve strong zero-shot performance through large-scale pretraining. However, they are primarily developed for general-domain TS and largely rely on self-attention backbones whose computational cost grows quadratically with sequence length and variate count. Moreover, they assume fully observed inputs and are pretrained on corpora that fail to capture the unique dynamics of financial markets. These limitations hinder their applicability to finance, where long, many-channel, intermittently observed panels are common. To address these challenges, EXAONE Finance adopts an attention-free architecture, replacing self-attention with two simple yet effective linear-time operators: 1) a causal 1D convolution for temporal mixing and 2) a group-aware pooling multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for variate mixing. Furthermore, a masked context augmentation exposes the model to contiguous missing spans during training, improving robustness to the missingness pervasive in financial markets. EXAONE Finance is pretrained on a large-scale financial corpus covering not only equities but also foreign exchange, commodities, crypto-assets, fixed income, and macroeconomic indicators. On FinVerse, a financial forecasting benchmark covering diverse asset classes, EXAONE Finance attains state-of-the-art performance, ranking first across all three evaluation tiers---point-forecast accuracy, cross-sectional asset ranking, and portfolio profitability.

Language models used in financial backtests suffer from look-ahead bias, as a model trained on text published after the study period has already observed the outcomes it is asked to predict. To handle this issue, point-in-time (PIT) language models are pretrained on chronologically filtered corpora and released as one checkpoint per calendar year, each with a documented cutoff. However, each additional year costs a full pretraining run, and whether that run is necessary has never been tested. In this paper, we show that the annual pretraining run is not necessary. We instead compare each checkpoint against the newer one that replaced it, and find that the newer checkpoint scores no better on the same evaluation window. Motivated by this observation, we propose PALM (Point-in-time Adaptation for financial Language Models), a simple yet effective alternative to annual pretraining that fits a low-rank adapter on text published before the decision date without modifying any pretrained weight. We further find that a small adapter is enough to add a new period to the knowledge an old checkpoint already encodes, and that this outperforms continued pretraining. We validate PALM on a decade of financial news and on various families of PIT models, whose cutoffs span two decades and whose sizes range from 1.3 to 4.2B. Code is available at: https://github.com/seunghan96/palm.

Post-training has been shown to significantly improve language models' performance on tasks with verifiable outcomes, including mathematical reasoning, software engineering, and computer use. However, whether the same approach can improve forecasting in financial markets is much less clear. Compared with tasks with verifiable outcomes, not only are realized returns noisy, but even what constitutes a relevant information set for making effective predictions is not obvious a priori: the model must decide which observations to gather and then commit to a numerical judgment before the outcome is known. We study this question in a chronological stock-price sandbox, where a language model gathers price, volume, relative-performance, and market-context evidence and predicts a future return. We post-train Qwen3-4B with supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on tool-use demonstrations, then proximal policy optimization (PPO) with a terminal reward given by the forecast score against the realized return. The resulting AURA-4B more than doubles the starting direction--magnitude score, from 20.94 to 43.31, and is comparable to frontier language models on this benchmark. Conditional magnitude agreement rises from 33.3 to 66.2, while directional accuracy changes from 62.9 to 65.4. SFT expands tool use, and PPO further increases the share of ranking and market-context queries. These results show that post-training can substantially improve financial forecasting performance, together with changes in how the model investigates the market, on this outcome-selected benchmark.