Demographic Pluralism: Inference-Time Modeling of Pluralistic Human Preference Distributions
Organizations: Amazon Science
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in culturally sensitive settings, where alignment requires representing diverse preferences within populations. Yet existing methods model populations at coarse demographic or community levels and overlook within-group variation. We introduce Demographic Pluralism, an inference-time framework that estimates population-level opinion distributions without opinion-distribution training data or task-specific fine-tuning by generating multiple perspectives within demographically grounded groups. Across four backbones on GlobalOpinionQA and VITAL, it reduces Jensen-Shannon distance by 8.4%-26.4% over Modular Pluralism. Among weighted, equal-weighted, and inverse-weighted aggregation, equal weighting performs best overall; group-level error also increases with group weight, helping explain weighted aggregation's weaker performance.
Figures & tables
| Method | Mistral-7B-Instruct | Phi-3.5-Instruct | Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct | Qwen3-14B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | VITAL | Global | VITAL | Global | VITAL | Global | VITAL | |
| Baseline | ||||||||
| Direct Prompting | .3224 ( ) | .3645 ( ) | .4178 ( ) | .3925 ( ) | .3906 ( ) | .3576 ( ) | .4076 ( ) | .3412 ( ) |
| CoT | .3905 ( ) | .3862 ( ) | .4806 ( ) | .4639 ( ) | .3893 ( ) | .3846 ( ) | .4234 ( ) | .4025 ( ) |
| Modular Pluralism | .3292 ( ) | .3574 ( ) | .3366 ( ) | .3226 ( ) | .3551 ( ) | .3462 ( ) | .3369 ( ) | .3044 ( ) |
| Demographic Pluralism | ||||||||
| Method | Uses training-set opinion distributions? | LLM fine-tuned? | Mistral-7B | Phi-3.5 | Qwen2.5-7B | Qwen3-14B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panel A: Full question-disjoint test (15,893 instances) | ||||||
| Direct Prompting | — | .327 | .417 | .394 | .406 | |
| CoT | — | .393 | .480 | .389 | .423 | |
| Modular Pluralism | — | .305 | .316 | .308 | .315 | |
| Cao et al. | .217 | .362 | .539 | .314 | ||
| Demographic Pluralism | — | .292 | .272 | .270 | .281 | |
| Method | Country | Subgroup | Pearson | Spearman |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JSD | JSD | |||
| Demographic Pluralism | 0.2106 | 0.2671 | 0.799 | 0.779 |
| w/o Multiple Perspectives | 0.3139 | 0.3811 | 0.695 | 0.699 |
Appendix figures & tables19 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Statistic | GlobalOpinionQA | VITAL |
|---|---|---|
| Number of country–question instances | 28,763 | 1,676 |
| Initial demographic combinations | 2,790,345 | 168,691 |
| After zero-probability filtering | 1,784,375 (63.9%) | 106,996 (63.4%) |
| After plausibility filtering (LLM) | 918,078 (32.9%) | 55,322 (32.8%) |
| Mean demographic groups per instance | 31.9 | 33.0 |
| Median demographic groups per instance | 16 | 17 |
| Method | Mistral-7B-Instruct | Phi-3.5-Instruct | Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct | Qwen3-14B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | VITAL | Global | VITAL | Global | VITAL | Global | VITAL | |
| Demographic Pluralism (Full) | ||||||||
| weighted | .2884 ( ) | .3275 ( ) | .2749 ( ) | .2843 ( ) | .2750 ( ) | .2588 ( ) | .2835 ( ) | .2461 ( ) |
| equal-weighted | .2869 ( ) | .3276 ( ) | .2669 ( ) | .2808 ( ) | .2681 ( ) | .2547 ( ) | .2757 ( ) | .2386 ( ) |
| inverse-weighted | .2870 ( ) | .3275 ( ) | .2670 ( ) | .2815 ( ) | .2682 ( ) | .2553 ( ) | .2758 ( ) | .2394 ( ) |
| w/o demographic groups | .3015 ( ) | .3245 ( ) | .3114 ( ) | .3203 ( ) | .3058 ( ) | .2988 ( ) | .3147 ( ) | .2829 ( ) |
| Attribute schema beyond age+gender | Gain on Global | Gain on VITAL |
|---|---|---|
| ethnicity | ||
| religion ethnicity | ||
| education religion ethnicity |
| Dataset | Cutoff | Pluralistic | Dominant |
|---|---|---|---|
| GlobalOpinionQA | 0.55 | 13,311 (46.3%) | 15,452 (53.7%) |
| 0.60 | 16,334 (56.8%) | 12,429 (43.2%) | |
| 0.65 | 18,984 (66.0%) | 0 9,779 (34.0%) | |
| VITAL | 0.55 | 0 511 (30.5%) | 1,165 (69.5%) |
| 0.60 | 0 700 (41.8%) | 0 976 (58.2%) | |
| 0.65 | 0 877 (52.3%) | 0 799 (47.7%) |
| Pluralistic | Dominant | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutoff | Method | JSD | Top-2 | TailJSD | JSD | Top-2 | TailJSD |
| 0.55 | Direct Prompting | 0.30 | 0.53 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 0.72 | 0.24 |
| Modular Pluralism | 0.32 | 0.51 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 0.70 | 0.26 | |
| Demographic Pluralism | 0.26 | 0.56 | 0.25 | 0.31 | 0.75 | 0.21 | |
| 0.60 | Direct Prompting | 0.30 | 0.55 | 0.27 | 0.35 | 0.74 | 0.24 |
| Modular Pluralism | 0.32 | 0.53 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 0.72 | 0.26 | |
| Pluralistic | Dominant | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutoff | Method | JSD | Top-2 | TailJSD | JSD | Top-2 | TailJSD |
| 0.55 | Direct Prompting | 0.32 | 0.59 | 0.30 | 0.38 | 0.73 | 0.31 |
| Modular Pluralism | 0.30 | 0.57 | 0.30 | 0.38 | 0.68 | 0.27 | |
| Demographic Pluralism | 0.27 | 0.62 | 0.27 | 0.35 | 0.75 | 0.24 | |
| 0.60 | Direct Prompting | 0.32 | 0.62 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.73 | 0.31 |
| Modular Pluralism | 0.31 | 0.59 | 0.29 | 0.39 | 0.69 | 0.27 | |
| Case Study (Dataset: GlobalOpinionQA; Country: Pakistan) |
| Question: Protecting the environment should be given priority, even if it causes slower economic growth and some loss of jobs. |
| Options: A. Completely agree B. Mostly agree C. Mostly disagree D. Completely disagree |
| Modular Pluralism (full set of fixed perspectives). |
| news_left: |
| Text: As a Pakistani citizen, I strongly believe that the statement is very important and is of utmost importance. My preference will be that we should do both—protect the environment and at the same time, continue to have a strong and healthy economy with job creation. While it is necessary to have economic growth, our growth must be sustainable. We need to take steps which are responsible, where we do not create jobs that require us to damage the environment. However, if it means sacrificing short term economic benefits for long term environmental gains, we must be willing to do so. A strong and healthy economy can be achieved without having to come at the cost of the environment. Therefore, my answer will be “B. Mostly agree.” |
| Distribution: [0.04, 0.95, 0.00, 0.01] |
| Demographic Pluralism (demographically grounded perspectives; Perspectives 1–9). |
| Perspective 1 (15–64Y male, Muslim): |
| Background & Perspective: Muhammad is a 25-year-old male from Karachi, Pakistan. He is a devout Muslim and attends mosque regularly. He works as a salesman at a local market and earns a moderate income. He is married with two children and lives in a small apartment in the city. He enjoys watching cricket and spending time with his family. Protecting the environment is crucial for the future of our children and the country. Economic growth and job creation should not come at the expense of our planet’s well-being. |
| Distribution: [0.33, 0.55, 0.07, 0.04] |
| Perspective 2 (15–64Y male, Muslim): |
| Background & Perspective: Muhammad is a 25-year-old male from Karachi, Pakistan. He is a devout Muslim and attends mosque regularly. He works as a salesman at a local market and earns a moderate income. He is married with two children and lives in a small apartment in the city. While I understand the importance of protecting the environment, I also believe that economic growth and job creation are necessary for the prosperity of our country. A balance must be struck between the two. |
| Distribution: [0.05, 0.23, 0.47, 0.25] |
| Demographic Pluralism (demographically grounded perspectives; continued). |
| Perspective 10 (65+Y female, Muslim): |
| Background & Perspective: Umm Zainab recognizes the importance of economic growth and job creation, but she also understands the long-term consequences of neglecting the environment. She believes that while economic growth is important, it should not come at the expense of the environment. She sees the two as interconnected and believes that protecting the environment will ultimately lead to a more prosperous and sustainable future for all. |
| Distribution: [0.34, 0.55, 0.06, 0.05] |
| Perspective 11 (65+Y female, Muslim): |
| Background & Perspective: Umm Zainab is a pragmatist and believes that protecting the environment should be given priority, but only if it can be done in a way that does not harm the economy or cause unnecessary hardship for people. She recognizes the challenges of balancing environmental protection with economic growth and believes that a middle ground can be found that benefits both. |
| Distribution: [0.09, 0.37, 0.30, 0.24] |
| Dataset | Method | High-resource | Medium-resource | Low-resource |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (39.6% / 32.6%) | (42.9% / 43.7%) | (17.6% / 23.6%) | ||
| GlobalOpinionQA | Direct Prompting | 0.3249 | 0.3145 | 0.3367 |
| Modular Pluralism | 0.3379 | 0.3204 | 0.3268 | |
| Demographic Pluralism | 0.2851 | 0.2840 | 0.2982 | |
| VITAL | Direct Prompting | 0.3528 | 0.3655 | 0.3786 |
| Modular Pluralism | 0.3536 | 0.3509 | 0.3720 |
| Method | Dataset | F-statistic | p-value | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct Prompting | GlobalOpinionQA | 37.94 | Significant | |
| Direct Prompting | VITAL | 4.25 | 0.014 | Significant |
| Modular Pluralism | GlobalOpinionQA | 38.02 | Significant | |
| Modular Pluralism | VITAL | 2.78 | 0.062 | Not Significant |
| Demographic Pluralism | GlobalOpinionQA | 19.15 | Significant | |
| Demographic Pluralism | VITAL | 31.56 | Significant |
| Method | Intermediate generator | Global JSD | VITAL JSD |
|---|---|---|---|
| CoT | Mistral-7B | 0.3893 | 0.3846 |
| CoT | Qwen3-32B | 0.4788 | 0.4504 |
| Demographic Pluralism | Mistral-7B | 0.2681 | 0.2547 |
| Demographic Pluralism | Qwen3-32B | 0.2788 | 0.3095 |
| Metric | Global | VITAL |
|---|---|---|
| Cross-model perspective sim. | ||
| Cross-model background sim. | ||
| Within-Mistral perspective sim. | ||
| Within-Qwen perspective sim. | ||
| Mistral avg. perspectives/group | 2.73 | 2.81 |
| Qwen3-32B avg. perspectives/group | 2.99 | 2.99 |
| Benchmark | Method | Artifact (s) | Opinion (s) | Total (s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GlobalOpinionQA ( =28,763) | Direct Prompting | 0 | 854 | 854 |
| CoT | 73,101 | 461 | 73,562 | |
| Modular Pluralism | 48,402 | 11,454 | 59,856 | |
| Demographic Pluralism | 45,578 | 16,306 | 61,884 | |
| VITAL ( =1,676) | Direct Prompting | 0 | 92 | 92 |
| CoT | 4,771 | 71 | 4,842 |
| Benchmark | Resource Tier | N (groups) | Spearman | -value | JSD (bot. 1/3) | JSD (top 1/3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GlobalOpinionQA | High | 436,145 | 0.1300 | 0.1323 | ||
| Medium | 359,202 | 0.1329 | 0.1369 | |||
| Low | 122,191 | 0.1138 | 0.1295 | |||
| VITAL | High | 22,449 | 0.0965 | 0.1131 | ||
| Medium | 23,698 | 0.0922 | 0.1111 | |||
| Low | 9,151 | 0.1063 | 0.1216 |
| Mistral-7B-Instruct | Phi-3.5-Instruct | Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct | Qwen3-14B | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Global | VITAL | Global | VITAL | Global | VITAL | Global | VITAL | |||||||||||||||||
| Method | JSD | EMD | Hyb | JSD | EMD | Hyb | JSD | EMD | Hyb | JSD | EMD | Hyb | JSD | EMD | Hyb | JSD | EMD | Hyb | JSD | EMD | Hyb | JSD | EMD | Hyb |
| Direct Prompting | .3224 | .2535 | .2661 | .3645 | .2847 | .2988 | .4178 | .2967 | .3116 | .3925 | .2768 | .3116 | .3906 | .2871 | .3004 | .3576 | .2380 | .2732 | .4076 | .3033 | .3153 | .3412 | .2312 | .2521 |
| CoT | .3905 | .2905 | .3118 | .3862 | .2754 | .3039 | .4806 | .3307 | .3558 | .4639 | .3131 | .3426 | .3893 | .2857 | .2980 | .3846 | .2670 | .2876 | .4234 | .3008 | .3160 | .4025 | .2761 | .3006 |
| Modular Pluralism | .3292 | .2489 | .2670 | .3574 | .2857 | .3065 | .3366 | .2341 | .2512 | .3226 | .2445 | .2537 | .3551 | .2371 | .2598 | .3462 | .2180 | .2636 | .3369 | .2328 | .2522 | .3044 | .2106 | .2368 |
| Ours (WEIGHTED) | .2884 | .2372 | .2437 | .3275 | .2750 | .2835 | .2749 | .2061 | .2127 | .2843 | .2178 | .2285 | .2750 | .2113 | .2106 | .2588 | .1930 | .2062 | .2835 | .2130 | .2131 | .2461 | .1867 | .1981 |
| Method | Mistral-7B | Phi-3.5 | Qwen2.5-7B | Qwen3-14B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panel A: 131-country question-disjoint test (15,893 instances, 1,191 questions) | ||||
| Direct Prompting | .256 | .271 | .252 | .257 |
| CoT | .295 | .314 | .249 | .262 |
| Modular Pluralism | .213 | .203 | .194 | .196 |
| Cao et al. | .149 | .267 | .361 | .238 |
| Demographic Pluralism | .211 | .181 | .169 | .169 |
| Method | Mistral-7B | Phi-3.5 | Qwen2.5-7B | Qwen3-14B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panel A: 131-country question-disjoint test (15,893 instances, 1,191 questions) | ||||
| Direct Prompting | .285 | .323 | .313 | .317 |
| CoT | .334 | .378 | .307 | .329 |
| Modular Pluralism | .253 | .247 | .244 | .247 |
| Cao et al. | .180 | .305 | .437 | .271 |
| Demographic Pluralism | .247 | .218 | .210 | .215 |