Asterism: Exploring and Synthesizing Scattered Observations into Literature-Grounded Hypotheses and Theories

Large language models have recently been explored for scientific hypothesis generation, but most prior work relies on unstructured literature and free-form textual claims. We present a pipeline for Earth observation that grounds hypothesis generation directly in the NASA Earth Observation Knowledge Graph. A heterogeneous graph neural network trained on historical co-usage relations ranks candidate dataset pairings, and a three-agent LLM pipeline filters, generates, and evaluates structured research hypotheses. Applied to 1,475 NASA datasets, the system produces 160 hypotheses spanning multiple Earth-science domains, including ecohydrology, glaciology, aerosol--cloud interactions, vegetation phenology, and stratospheric chemistry. Model-predicted novel dataset pairings are rated nearly as plausible as held-out real co-usages from the literature, indicating that the pipeline surfaces scientifically coherent yet unexplored combinations. A 222 factorial experiment across GPT-5.2 and Claude Sonnet 4.6 shows that hypothesis rankings remain stable, while absolute scores depend strongly on judge identity, highlighting limitations of single-judge LLM evaluation.

Scientific breakthroughs often emerge from synthesizing prior ideas into novel contributions. While language models (LMs) show promise in scientific discovery, their ability to perform this targeted, literature-grounded synthesis remains underexplored. We introduce insight anticipation, a generation task in which a model predicts a downstream paper's core insight from its foundational parent papers. To evaluate this capability, we develop GiantsBench, a benchmark of 17k examples across eight scientific domains, where each example consists of a set of parent papers paired with the core insight of a downstream paper. We evaluate models using an LM judge that scores similarity between generated and ground-truth insights, and show that these similarity scores correlate with expert human ratings. Finally, we present GIANTS-4B, an LM trained via reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize insight anticipation using these similarity scores as a proxy reward. Despite its smaller open-source architecture, GIANTS-4B outperforms proprietary baselines and generalizes to unseen domains, achieving a 34% relative improvement in similarity score over gemini-3-pro. Human evaluations further show that GIANTS-4B produces insights that are more conceptually clear than those of the base model. In addition, SciJudge-30B, a third-party model trained to compare research abstracts by likely citation impact, predicts that insights generated by GIANTS-4B are more likely to lead to higher citations, preferring them over the base model in 68% of pairwise comparisons. We release our code, benchmark, and model to support future research in automated scientific discovery.

While large language models (LLMs) show promise in scientific discovery, existing research focuses on inference or feedback-driven training, leaving the direct modeling of the generative reasoning process, $P(\text{hypothesis}|\text{background})$ ($P(h|b)$), unexplored. We demonstrate that directly training $P(h|b)$ is mathematically intractable due to the combinatorial complexity ($O(N^k)$) inherent in retrieving and composing inspirations from a vast knowledge base. To break this barrier, we introduce MOOSE-Star, a unified framework that enables tractable and scalable training of $P(h|b)$, while supporting more scalable inference. In the best case, MOOSE-Star reduces complexity from exponential to logarithmic ($O(\log N)$) by (1) training on decomposed subtasks derived from the probabilistic equation of discovery, (2) employing motivation-guided hierarchical search to enable logarithmic retrieval and prune irrelevant subspaces, and (3) utilizing bounded composition for robustness against retrieval noise. To facilitate this, we release TOMATO-Star, a dataset of 108,717 decomposed papers (38,400 GPU hours) for training. Empirically, MOOSE-Star scales continuously with training data and inference budget, whereas direct brute-force sampling hits a complexity wall.