Each run of an AI-driven research system (ADRS) is an expensive search over a vast solution space, and dependable evaluation requires many runs, making run data both costly to produce and valuable to retain for large-scale analysis. Yet this data remains fragmented: teams operate in isolation, ADRS frameworks emit results in different formats, and no shared infrastructure exists to aggregate or compare runs across problems and systems. We present ROAR, a solution for systematically unifying and analyzing heterogeneous ADRS outputs. ROAR addresses two challenges: reconciling heterogeneous ADRS outputs and enabling analytics across runs with different objectives and scoring functions. We achieve this through a relational schema and parsing layer that normalize heterogeneous ADRS outputs while preserving data lineage and temporal structure, and accommodating new systems without requiring schema modifications. From building a corpus of more than 900 runs from multiple ADRS, we show how pooled data can reveal properties of problem landscapes that are difficult to observe. Consistent with prior work, runs with identical configurations may converge to different scores. We find that many runs realize most gains early, and that the effectiveness of different strategies for incorporating prior solutions into the search process varies across problems. We further show that the pooled corpus is actionable and not merely analytical by using ROAR to configure ADRS runs. Together, these results illustrate how pooled ADRS data can expose problem-dependent structure in search behavior that is difficult to detect from any single system, team, or benchmark. Such cross-cutting insights are difficult to obtain while runs remain siloed; ROAR is the first infrastructure designed to unify them.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Basin structure for Polynomino Packing for the 9 configurations with the most runs; the full set of 14 configurations with n≥10 appears in Figure 4 (Appendix F ). Color indicates classification: magenta = confirmed bimodal, orange = inconclusive due to CI, blue = unimodal. Labels report sample size, point-estimate BC, and bootstrapped 95% CI.
Figure 2: Calibration of rule-of-3 across three problems. The dashed line at 63% is the ceiling of the heuristic. Observed escape rates fall far below it.
Figure 3: Factor importance for predicting score improvement, by problem. Bars are log-odds of improvement per 1 SD of each factor; positive (green) indicates the factor is associated with more improvements, negative (red) with fewer. ∣C↑∣ , ∣C↓∣ give the improving and non-improving candidate counts.
Problem
Cfgs
Campaigns
Gain
95% CI
Polynomino
9
115
+18.9
[+11.6,+25.6]
Knapsack
3
37
+16.9
[−1.0,+33.6]
Table 1: RQ4: gain of the ROAR budget policy over a single 50-iteration campaign, per problem. Campaigns is the number of campaigns in the included configurations; each is held out once and scored against the policy fit on the others. Gain is the mean difference in best score. Intervals are 95% bootstrap confidence intervals over campaigns, with the policy refit on each resample.
Appendix figures & tables23 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Metric
Count
Campaigns (runs)
928
Candidates
48,210
Distinct generators
14
Distinct mechanisms
6
Appendix
Table 2: Dataset summary statistics.
Problem
Runs
Cands
Mechs
Models
Palindrome Ham. Path
290
17,181
3
10
Polynomino Packing
353
16,293
3
12
Bounded 2D Knapsack
271
13,857
3
12
CUDA Attention
3
481
2
—
CUDA Layer Norm
4
269
2
—
Dispatcher Cold Path
6
68
5
1
Appendix
Table 3: Problem coverage in the dataset. The three combinatorial problems dominate the corpus; CUDA kernel problems provide signal on continuous landscapes; single-campaign problems are excluded from statistical analyses.
Table 11: Data processing performance across pipeline stages.
Figure 4: Basin structure for Polynomino Packing for all 14 configurations with n≥10 runs; 16 configurations with fewer runs omitted. Color indicates classification: magenta = confirmed bimodal, orange = CI inconclusive, blue = unimodal. Labels report sample size, point-estimate BC, and bootstrapped 95% CI. Of 14 configurations, 7 are confirmed bimodal, 6 are inconclusive, and 1 is unimodal.
Figure 5: Basin structure for Bounded 2D Knapsack at the configuration level. Each violin represents runs from a single configuration. Color indicates classification: magenta = confirmed bimodal, orange = CI inconclusive, gray = deterministic. Of 10 configurations, 5 are confirmed bimodal, 3 are inconclusive, and 2 are deterministic.
Figure 6: Escape rate vs. stagnation length by mechanism for Bounded 2D Knapsack.
Figure 7: Escape rate vs. stagnation length by mechanism for Polynomino Packing.
Figure 8: Early diversity (first 25% of iterations) vs. final score for Bounded 2D Knapsack (left), Polynomino Packing (center), and CUDA Attention (right). Only Polynomino Packing shows a significant relationship, which is positive; Bounded 2D Knapsack shows no early-diversity signal, and CUDA Attention is inconclusive given the limited sample size. Each panel title reports the Spearman rank correlation ρ between early diversity and final score and its two-sided p -value.
Figure 9: Early diversity (first 25% of iterations) vs. final score by mechanism for Bounded 2D Knapsack.
Figure 10: Early diversity (first 25% of iterations) vs. final score by mechanism for Polynomino Packing.
Figure 11: Early diversity vs. final score by model for Bounded 2D Knapsack.
Figure 12: Early diversity vs. final score by model for Polynomino Packing.
Figure 13: Within-decile code diversity across score deciles. Runs are binned into ten equal-sized groups by best-candidate score (decile 1 = lowest, decile 10 = highest). Lower diversity indicates greater convergence among solutions in that performance tier.
Figure 14: Factor importance by model and mechanism for Bounded 2D Knapsack. Cells are GLMM log-odds per SD. Each panel shows one mechanism; rows are models, columns are factors. Hatched cells are not statistically significant ( p≥.05 , Wald test). The negative direction is consistent across most model–mechanism combinations, with Gemini-2.5-Flash as a notable outlier.
Figure 15: Factor importance by model and mechanism for Polynomino Packing. Cells are GLMM log-odds per SD. Each panel shows one mechanism; rows are models, columns are factors. Hatched cells are not statistically significant ( p≥.05 , Wald test). An overall more positive trend is observed.
Figure 16: Per-configuration gain of the ROAR budget policy over current practice (one campaign using the full budget) at an identical 50-iteration budget, for the 12 tested configurations. Points are leave-one-out estimates; bars are 95% out-of-bag refit bootstrap intervals (1,000 draws), blue where the interval excludes zero. The right-hand column gives each configuration’s fitted policy (kstop,n) .
AI-Driven Research Systems (ADRS) -- systems coupling LLMs with automated evaluation to discover algorithms, proofs, and designs -- are being optimized and adopted across domains, but the tools to analyze them have not kept pace. ADRS performance depends on component interactions that are poorly understood, expensive to explore, and (as we show) not well captured by standard convergence guarantees. These guarantees rely on structural assumptions that do not hold under the ADRS process we formalize. We introduce GAMBLe, a framework that decomposes ADRS behavior into four parameters (generator G, assessor A, discovery mechanism M, budget B) and one compositional object, the effective landscape Leff=A∘G, which reveals that distinct generator-assessor pairs induce structurally different per-problem optimization landscapes. We exercise the framework on 760+ replicated runs (>46,000 iterations) spanning generators from single LLMs to dynamically-adaptive ensembles, mechanisms from greedy selection to co-evolutionary meta-search, and three NP-hard problems whose assessors range from continuous scoring to cliff functions. The experiments reveal no total ordering of generators or mechanisms: frontier models can underperform open-source alternatives and the simplest mechanism sometimes outperforms state-of-the-art meta-search. Results show that even under limited budgets (60 iterations per run), the right component choices can improve performance by 13-67% and search efficiency by 6-39x.
AI-driven autonomous research (AR) systems are becoming increasingly effective across a broad range of tasks. Their performance, however, is still evaluated primarily by the quality of the final outcome. In this paper, we argue that the efficiency of the solution-search process is an equally important but often overlooked dimension of performance. A strong AR system should not only produce high-quality results, but also reach them with as small a budget as possible. Search efficiency will become increasingly important as AR expands from domains with inexpensive verification, such as mathematics and coding, to real-world scientific settings in which solution evaluation may require costly physical experiments. To capture this dimension, we propose evaluating AR systems using the area under the curve (AUC) of the Pareto frontier, alongside final outcome quality. We compare several families of search algorithms, including hill climbing, beam search, tree search, and evolutionary search, across twelve systems-optimization tasks. We find that no single search structure is consistently the most efficient. We also show that search efficiency and final outcome quality are distinct performance dimensions: a method that eventually achieves the best result may nevertheless improve slowly and consume substantially more evaluation budget before reaching that result. Because the most effective search policy is generally unknown in advance, we introduce an adaptive procedure called fluid search, which uses a portfolio bandit to dynamically allocate a fixed evaluation budget across a forest of search processes. Across the evaluated tasks, fluid search achieves the highest overall search efficiency, closely matching the performance of a per-task oracle that is given the best search structure for each task in advance.
The rapid advancement of Auto-Research has surfaced a fundamental evaluation challenge: how can we measure the alignment, logical coherence, and evolutionary completeness of its research trajectory with human research behavior? We propose Auto-Research's Alignment and Completeness, ARAC-Bench: a Researcher-Mimicking Evaluation framework that shifts the objective from matching final answers to reproducing high-quality human research processes. The framework operates through two synergistic components: the Academic Cognition Skills system, which is the first to transforms implicit reviewer expertise into stage-calibrated, quantifiable rubrics; and a three-stage capability diagnostic protocol, which decomposes the research process under strict modular constraints into three traceable, mutually independent dimensions: Proposal, Experiment, and Synthesis. Systematic evaluation of 11 SOTA frameworks yields a best alignment score of only 67.9 of 100, revealing a significant gap in simulating rigorous human methodology. Validation against Ph.D. Candidates rankings shows a strong correlation of 0.8141, confirming that ARAC-Bench reliably reflects the dimensions researchers truly value. ARAC-Bench provides not only a fine-grained diagnostic tool but also a scalable reward signal for training the next generation of autonomous research systems.
Jiale Cui, Yueyao Yuan, Kaixi Zhong +3
School of Software Technology, Zhejiang University