AEGIS: Differentiable Mars Climate Model with Neural Closures

We investigate the transferability of Earth weather foundation models to planetary atmospheres by adapting the GraphCast graph neural weather forecasting model to Mars. While GraphCast achieves state-of-the-art performance for terrestrial forecasting, its applicability to non-Earth environments remains unexplored. Using the Mars Climate Database (MCD), which provides global atmospheric fields across vertical altitude levels (similar to Earth pressure levels), we evaluate zero-shot and fine-tuned GraphCast predictions of Martian temperature and wind fields. Zero-shot forecasts produce a surprisingly accurate depiction of current conditions but fail to reproduce diurnal variability and rapidly decay toward climatological mean states. To address this limitation, we fine-tune GraphCast using MCD variables and top-of-atmosphere solar radiation forcing while holding humidity constant. Fine-tuning enables rapid learning of Martian thermal variability. Within as few as 10 training epochs, the model begins to capture the diurnal cycle and forecasts up to 10 days reproduce seasonal and vertical temperature structure. Prediction quality improves with training sample size and exhibits sensitivity to seasonal initialization. These results demonstrate that Earth-trained AI weather models can be adapted to simulate Martian atmospheric dynamics, providing a pathway toward rapid planetary weather prediction to support mission operations, dust storm risk mitigation, and future human exploration.

Long-term records of the Martian atmosphere based on general circulation models and reanalysis of atmospheric state variables are important to understand the diurnal, seasonal, and climatological changes of the planet. Atmospheric dynamics of the Martian atmosphere are strongly influenced by the characterization of dust lifting, solar insolation, and spatial variations in topography. We present ARCO-Mars, a unified Analysis-Ready Cloud-Optimized dataset providing integrated access to three independent Mars atmospheric reanalysis products: EMARS, MACDA, and OpenMARS spanning over Mars Years 24-35. These reanalyses assimilate thermal infrared retrievals from the MGS/TES, ODY/THEMIS, and MRO/MCS instruments, providing both two and three-dimensional surface and atmospheric state variables, including temperature, winds, surface pressure, and dust optical depth. The dataset is stored in Zarr v3 format and hosted on HuggingFace, enabling efficient cloud-based access without requiring local storage of the full archive. We compare the state variables between the three reanalysis products to identify systematic differences, attributed to differences in data assimilation and general circulation models. ARCO-Mars provides a community resource for Mars atmospheric science, numerical weather prediction validation, and machine learning applications, including weather forecasting and data assimilation.

The martian atmosphere hosts dynamical phenomena ranging from planet-encircling dust storms to mesoscale orographic clouds and nocturnal low-level jets. General circulation model show capability to simulate these phenomena, but is computationally expensive at resolution needed to resolve mesoscale features. While assimilation of satellite remote sensing observation enable forecasting capabilities using such models, observation record is often sparse, short and fragmented across instrument generators. These constraints motivate the development of a data-driven foundation model for the Martian atmosphere. Foundation models live in a complex design landscape. There is an interplay between the available data, the physics of the underlying processes and corresponding developments in AI. Even though the idea of a foundation model is to address multiple use cases in a data- and compute-efficient manner, it is important to have a clear picture what applications can sensibly addressed by a single model. The purpose of this paper is to elucidate this design landscape. We discuss available data ranging from atmospheric retrievals to reanalysis datasets as well as existing physical models. Moreover, we identify a wide range of candidate downstream applications. Finally, we consider relevant recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) that can be leveraged in this context. Here, we put a particular emphasis on AI models for atmospheric physics, data-driven approaches to data assimilation as well as methods to work in a limited data setting.