Can Power Draw Constrain Covert Compute? Limits of Analogue Verification for AI Governance

AI compute verification is one of the first tangible and tractable points for international policy aimed at AI governance. Determining whether frontier labs, or any operator, comply with agreements requires the regulating authority to discern how their compute is used. The elementary building block of AI compute is the GPU, and any activity it executes leaves a physical trace. Here, we show that an external observer can identify the class of the workload running on an NVIDIA H200 from its power draw. Unlike on-chip NVML telemetry, which can be spoofed or replayed, such a physical channel can in principle be observed independently of operator cooperation. We recorded $930$ five-second traces at $\sim 10$ MHz, covering seventeen open LLM families and twenty-five non-AI workloads. Over this corpus we separate training from inference and from non-AI computation with an accuracy of $97\%$ and a macro-averaged F1 score of $0.955$, evaluated on model families unseen during training. AI workload spectral content predominantly lies below $\sim 20$kHz and training is particularly recognizable through the memory-bound optimizer update. The GPU operator is then treated as adversarial and able to reshape the physical computation itself. Four evasion strategies are tested to disguise training as inference, producing an additional 680 adversarial traces. A detector hardened against evasion strategies, with the tested strategy held out, catches training $\geq 99\%$ of the time for three of the four strategies. The fourth, diluted low-rank adaptation (LoRA), is detected $48$--$88\%$ of the time with a hardened classifier, rising to $\geq 98\%$ with an additional rescue rule. While these attacks are not a comprehensive evaluation against adversarial behaviour, they offer initial insights beyond genuine activities and a dataset for developing and testing stronger evasion mechanisms.

Verifying claims about AI workloads is a prerequisite for credible AI governance of covert adversaries (who comply with monitoring only when detection likelihood is high), yet the apparent non-determinism of GPU floating-point arithmetic forces auditors to accept approximate output matches. Covert adversaries can exploit unverifiable degrees of freedom in monitored computation. Attack vectors include steganography, unreported modification of inference software, and covert computation via unreported batch elements. Empirically, we analyze how modern inference engines (vLLM, HF transformers) produce deterministic but non-invariant outputs, without needing to set performance-compromising determinism flags, if the right information is available for re-computation and no atomic functions are called in the backend. We demonstrate that such bitwise-precise re-computation does not require access to identical hardware, via a software-only emulation of LLM inference across multiple NVIDIA GPU variants. Thus, accumulated rounding errors can be an auditable signature of the software and hardware setup used for inference, instead of a constraint on verifiability.

Compute governance proposals often rely on the assumption that frontier AI training requires large, detectable computing clusters. However, recent advances in distributed training algorithms could allow developers to conduct frontier-scale training on distributed agglomerations of hardware, rather than needing large datacenter facilities. Developers who prefer not to be constrained by regulations may structure their hardware in a manner that evades the registration and monitoring requirements associated with compute governance. Therefore, regulations must be designed to detect and prevent illicit distributed training operations. This paper evaluates the feasibility of such evasion and outlines recommended countermeasures, including whistleblowing, chip tracking, forensic accounting, and memory and compute thresholds for clusters.