How Many Independent Samples Does a Satellite Image Contain? Generalization Bounds for Spatially Dependent Data

Performance evaluation in AI systems commonly assumes that random dataset splits produce independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) subsets. We show that this assumption often breaks down in spatiotemporally correlated domains such as aerial surveillance, precision agriculture, and medical imaging, leading to two systematic failures: data leakage, where correlated samples span training and validation splits and inflate performance estimates, and hidden stratification, where errors on minority subpopulations are obscured by aggregate metrics. To address these issues, we propose a unified evaluation and training framework for spatially correlated data. We introduce Structure-Aware Stratified Partitioning (SASP), which constructs validation splits that reduce spatiotemporal leakage while preserving meaningful class balance, and Curriculum Distributionally Robust Optimization (CDRO), a curriculum-based relaxation of distributionally robust training that stabilizes optimization under these stricter splits. Across multiple benchmarks, this combination yields consistently improved generalization, more reliable confidence calibration, and exposes failure modes that remain hidden under conventional random-split evaluation.

The data for remote sensing is constantly acquired, and new data comes from a growing number and diversity of satellites, while the vast majority of labeled data comes from older satellites. As remote-sensing foundation models for Earth observation scale up, the cost of (re-)training to support new satellites grows too, so cross-band generalization across sensors and satellites is increasingly important. We introduce GeoCrossBench, an extension of the popular GeoBench benchmark with a new evaluation protocol for cross-band generalization across sensors and satellites: it tests standard in-distribution performance with the same bands for train and test, generalization to inputs with no intersection between train and test; and generalization to test inputs containing a superset of the training bands. We develop $χ$ViT, a self-supervised extension of the band-agnostic ChannelViT, as a supporting baseline for cross-band generalization. We evaluate a representative set of remote-sensing-specific and general-purpose vision models, characterize current performance, and identify directions for improvement through 11,900 H100 GPU-hours of experiments. When averaging dataset-specific metric scores, DOFA leads the in-distribution setting (61.30), frozen Panopticon leads the no-overlap setting (22.75), and ImageNet-pretrained ViT-B leads both the superset setting (56.19) and the overall average across settings (45.27). While top rankings in each setting are close, we clearly see that all models suffer significant performance losses when evaluated on unseen bands. We will publicly release the code and datasets to support the development of more future-proof remote sensing models with stronger cross-band generalization.

The rapid growth of image data has produced large-scale datasets, raising concerns about the time and memory costs of model training. Selecting representative training subsets, however, remains challenging: individual sample contributions are unclear, and model behavior varies across datasets and runs. We address these challenges with a framework that combines coreset selection with an ensemble aggregation over multiple runs. For coreset selection, we propose SCOre-Stratified Selection (SCOSS), which partitions the training data into intervals based on a chosen score and samples from each interval. The ensemble combines predictions from multiple runs, each performed on an independently sampled training subset. As baselines, we use moderate and random selection, each in original and class-balanced versions. We assess the framework with Simple Graph Convolution (SGC) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers under different sampling ratios. Experiments show that SCOSS is competitive with baselines, often the best choice for SGC, and enables favorable trade-offs between accuracy and efficiency. On the fine-grained dataset, SGC with SCOSS outperforms SVMs when using fewer labeled samples. The code and supplementary materials are publicly available at http://scoss.lucasvalem.com.